EUR/USD: WHICH Pairs Drive EUR/USD PRICES

Pairs driving the EUR price. In order EUR/CAD, EUR/NZD, EUR/GBP, EUR/CHF. Pairs EUR/JPY and EUR/AUD contribute nothing to the current EUR/USD move.
In Asia trading, EUR/INR is set for a big move and its purely EUR driven. This move is far greater than what EUR/CAD and EUR/NZD offers. INR is the Indian Rupee.
EUR/CAD. The current EUR/USD move leaves EUR/CAD overbought Vs EUR/USD and Oversold Vs USD/CAD. In normal market trading, EUR/CAD falls into the highly Neutral category among its peers. This means not much movements occurs especially seen in volatile news announcements. Its price is out of whack partly due to the current EUR move but most especially due to CAD from the BOC’s Interest rate cut. Its price therefore is in flux and will take a while to Normalize so EUR/CAD offers plenty of trading opportunities ahead. Quite rare to see a neutral pair offering best opportunities but it falls under my Realignment scenario as prices are in flux.
To define Normalization. 1 week after the BOC interest rate cut, CAD interest rates and Yields are still not aligned with counterpart currency pairs. How long does Normalization take is an answer I don’t yet, Yet. The same principle holds for CHF pairs but CHF normalization will take much longer due to the 35 Cent EUR/CHF move at one time.
EUR/CAD Levels. Two vital points for EUR/CAD 1.4134 and 1.4155. A break higher targets next level at 1.4282 while a break lower targets 1.3706. Past weeks saw EUR/CAD bounce nicely from 1.4100’s and 1.3700’s.
EUR/NZD. Vital points, 1.5339, 1.5251, 1.5240. 1.5108 and 1.5120. A cement Floor is located at 1.4436 while 1.4900’s are historic bottoms that recently broke.
EUR/GBP. Big break above 0.7544 Vs more cement Floors located at 0.7272 and 0.7219. A break of 0.7408 would see a run to 0.7272. EUR/GBP’s price will continue to see a slow grind because its position in the yield curve is located in a very small channel. Trade this pair at the 5 day average, now located at 0.7477 and current price just broke.
EUR/CHF. Trades at the 20 average, that means continued volatility and far into the future. Its trading based on CHF rather than EUR/USD and contributes little to nothing regarding EUR/USD prices.
EUR/JPY. I still expect the 132.63 break and to sustain. Range would become 132.63 – 130.04. The pair to watch in this scenario is JPY cross leader GBP/JPY. Its big break occurs at 175.39 and 170.37. And again, EUR/JPY is not a EUR/USD price driver at all. Nor is EUR/AUD.

EUR/USD Important fundamental point and continued driver of EUR/USD is QE and it begins next month. That’s when the big moves lower should be seen. For now, we’re viewing the current move as corrective and in sell rally mode. And so far we’re looking at targets around 1.08. This point will be updated with time.
More pairs, levels, targets posted here.

Brian Twomey Inside the Currency Market, btwomey.com

CURRENCY PAIR DESIGN and CONSTRUCTION

Few quick thoughts for interested.

No 2 currency pairs are the same, that concept doesn’t exist. Even AUD and NZD are vastly different. Each pair is tremendously different in construction, design, and purpose. Each currency pair has a vastly different driver to price movements, each pair has a vastly different price location within itself and among its peers. Each pair shares a far different place among and in between yield curves.
Some pairs are correctly positioned,some not. Some pairs are deeply out of whack, others not far off. But price divergences exist. What makes currency pairs different is a reflection of their market and economic system but combined, its what makes markets.
For example, NZD offers a smooth yield curve, AUD does not. NZD offers a clear and concise pattern in their interest rates, AUD does not. But regardless, each has a vastly different system and each currency pair is driven by deeply divergent factors.
One example EUR/GBP.

EUR/GBP has about a 30% price divergence between EUR/USD and GBP/USD. 30% however is ever changing but slowly. But 30% is not much and its why EUR/GBP is a slow mover. Its was designed to be a slow mover. Its price remains contained between EUR/USD and GBP/USD purposefully in construction and design. If EUR/USD or GBP/USD crashed then the BOE and ECB has EUR/GBP to rely upon to conduct nation’s business. EUR/GBP trades, its location, its position is between the 2 year and 3 month in the yield curve. Over time that location may change.
Currency pairs the world over come in two forms. Interest rate and yield currencies. Its why many math models and indicators are failures. They don’t catch the concepts. RSI is popular but it is completely worthless against a currency pair. We beat the testing to death, it fails. It averages highs Vs lows to form a line. I was fortunate to have a few conversations with Welles Wilder. My belief from conversations is RSI was designed for strictly Commodities not currencies. But RSI as today’s indicator is not totally the exact Welles Wilder feature. Its actually off and won’t catch currency pair movements correctly.
Few thoughts on Realignment.
Realignment. When currency prices align, realignment is done. So will our volatility be done. How long? Must be viewed in yearly periods. From my Index consisting of EUR, AUD, GBP, NZD, years 2009 – 2010 saw good volatility numbers. 2012 – 2013 saw good volatility numbers. 2011 – 2012 was dead. 2013 – 2014 saw nearly a 1% increase in volatility and all measured by each pair Vs each other. 2008 was the base period indexed so hard to measure by itself but that was also the new period year. The higher the volatility, the faster markets align to prices then we go to flat again. I’m highly interested in this realignment issue because its like halley’s comet. Its not seen very often and I may not see it again in my lifetime. So its followed closely.
Always many sincere thank you’s to all the many good and decent people, friends, followers, readers and those that trade with me.

Brian Twomey, Inside the Currency Market, btwomey.com

EUR/USD Through 24 Hour Fix Price Cycle

nside the Currency Market: EUR/USD Through 24 Hour Fix Prices
Posted by brian twomey on January 30, 2015 at 12:47amView Blog

EUR/USD 24 hour Cycle

The EUR/USD began Fed Day, Wednesday January 28th, 2015 with an opening price Fixed and set by the ECB at 1.1344. That price formally opened American market trading for not just the Euro but for 32 currency pairs and ? 496 possible currency paired combinations. The 8:30 ECB Fix opened American currency markets since its inception in London in ? 1800’s. Its no coincidence the Fix price coincides with major American market news. The purpose was to ensure price volatility occurs to allow deals to get done at certain prices.
Markets then trade until not only the 10:00 am minor economic news but the Gold price is Fixed for the EUR, GBP and USD by the London Market Bullion Association.
Markets again trade until the GBP Fix at 11:am. GBP/USD is most affected at this time as well as GBP/EUR, EUR/USD and all GBP pairs. The EUR/USD was Fixed at 1.1337.
At 12:00 Noon, the Fed conducts Currency Swap deals with Central banks and the Bank of Canada completes its “‘Noon Day” by Fixing its exchange rates. EUR/CAD is affected at “Noon Day”.
12:30 begins the FED exchange rate Fix. Wednesday the EUR/USD was Fixed at 1.1286.
The EUR/USD is clear again to trade until the 2:00 p.m. Bond market close. Then price becomes vulnerable until the 5:00 p.m. close.
New Zealand and Australian markets then begin trading but EUR/USD is affected only to the extent the RBA and RBNZ Fixes NZD/EUR and AUD/EUR.
EUR/USD next major event is the Beijing FIX that occurs at 9:30 am Beijing, 8:30 p.m. New York time. Beijing Fixed the EUR/USD at 1.1289.
Singapore and Kuala Lumpur next Fix the EUR/USD at 11:00 am, 10: p.m. New York time. The EUR/USD was Fixed Wednesday at 1.1283.
Manila opens 30 minutes later. The 11:30 am, 10:30 p.m.New York time Manila opening then Fixes the EUR/USD. Wednesday the Fix price was 1.1276.
30 minutes later, Jakarta and Bangkok Fixes the EUR/USD at 11:00 am, 11:00 p.m. New York. Both took the EUR/USD down to 1.1276 and the same as Manila.
Seoul is up next with the 2:00 p m, 12;00 Midnight Fix. Wednesday Seoul Fixed the EUR/USD at 1.1269.
Tokyo is next with the 3:00 p.m. Tokyo, 1:00 am New York Fix. Wednesday Tokyo Fixed the EUR/USD at 1.1274.
30 minutes later Mumbai opens and Fixes the EUR/USD at 12:00 p.m., 1:30 a.m. New York. Mumbai fixed the EUR/USD at 1.1279.
European markets open at 3:00 am New York and an advantage to EUR/USD traders because all prices worldwide are known. But trading is clear until the 5:30 am New York time Gold Fix again. Gold is again Fixed to EUR, GBP and USD.
The last major event to complete the cycle is the 11:00 a.m. London, 6:00 am New York time Libor Fix. This time prepares the remainder of the day to the 8:30 am ECB Fix. A new trading day then begins.

Brian Twomey, Inside the Currency Market, btwomey.com

EUR/USD Overnight Market Prices

EUR/USD Dead stop 1.1288, yesterday reported 1.1288. What does it mean. Europe just opened so we are still working on yesterday’s price structure. That structure holds until 6 am New York time. A violation of 1.1288 by even 1 pip means a bank price transaction occurred outside of 1.1288 and outside of the overnight market. And it occurred in Europe because price took us to top of the overnight range during Europe trading. A range found between 1.1197 – 1.1288. The only location for a violation of 1.1288 to occur is in the monthlies. But monthlies could be anywhere from 1 month to 1 year so we can’t pinpoint exactly. In the overnight market, Beijing, Seoul and Manila took the Eur higher but still within the range. Tokyo, Singapore, jakarta and Mumbai took EUR prices lower but still within the range. Violation of 1.1288 means an adjustment of the price structure to look longer term must be viewed and those prices are found at 1.1356 and 1.1365.

Brian Twomey Inside the Currency Market, btwomey.com

Inside the Currency Market: Currency Market Realignment

Currency Market Realignment: The New Beginning

Posted in October was an outline of the historic currency market Realignment in development, a truly rare event in currency markets because it means currency pairs undergo a structural price adjustment. Pricing adjustments are structural in currency pairs and slow in development but its never seen in USD V non USD pairs rather structual price adjustments and its historic Realignment counterpart is seen only in cross pairs but most pronounced in JPY crosses. I reported in October when EUR/JPY broke 132, Realignment is occurring. Last week, EUR/JPY broke 132 therefore currency markets and prices are in formal Realignment ( a Noun in my opinion). A brief history, explanation and the trade forward.

A Realignment occurrs when cross pairs change allegiance, its periodic but periods remain based on market events. The last Realignment occurred in 1998 upon the Thai Baht, Russian Ruble and other crisis and lasted 10 years until the 2008 Housing market dilemma. Year 2008 was the end of the old period to begin a new cycle. Because Realignments are rare events, its not well known unless one knows how to find and interpret its occurrence.

When free floats began in the early 1970’s, central banks adopted monetary target polices where the object was target of money supplies in some fashion such as the Bank of Japan who targeted GDP. Most central banks throughout the 1970’s and 1980’s experienced utter failure when deficits ensued, Inflation skyrocked to 20% and currency prices saw high volatility. Realignments during the 1970’s and 1980’s occurred on average every 5 – 6 years.

Fast forward to the 1990’s when Monetary targets were discarded in favor of Inflation Targets. Inflation targets allowed Central banks to extend periods by their successes for the most part by sustaining Inflation therefore periodic Realignments were extended and volatility was depressed.

What periods and Realignments inform is what type of markets trade. From 1998 – 2008, the period was classified as risk on because not only did the EUR/USD hit historic highs but so did EUR/PY follow to hit its 169 highs. Economic times were good. Upon the 2008 housing market crash, the Realignment was classified as Risk off since EUR/JPY switched allegiance and economic times were atrocious. But Realignment is as much a price as well as economic structure. When the next Realignment will occur after the present is unknown. It could very well be another 10 years, 20 or longer. It depends on central bank management of their economies and currency pair positions.

A normal market structure occurrs when EUR/JPY is the market leader because its the most widely traded and dominates in percentages in daily market turnover every year since year 2000. For the past 7 years, highly neutral GBP/JPY adopted the new title of market leader. With the 132 break and allowance of time for prices to Realign, EUR/JPY will again become the market leader and GBP/JPY will again retain its position as neutral. More importantly, we now head into the period of risk on. This will take time to develop because prices in all pairs must realign and because currency prices are slow to move. The EUR/CHF break from a daily market trading perspective means the old structure will again see its day. EUR/JPY as risk on will measure against risk off EUR/CHF to determine the type of traded market.

The pairs affected in Realignments in JPY terms are first EUR/JPY then GBP/JPY and CAD/JPY. AUD/JPY and NZD/JPY retain their original position for now since both pairs were not affected nor are ever affected by market crisis. The wild card in the cross pair Realignment mix is CHF/JPY. In past periods, CHF/JPY followed the crowd. The correct position of CHF/JPY should be far far lower and USD/CHF should be above at least 0.9400’s. For neutral pair GBP/CHF, its position should be easily above 1.4900’s. All three pairs are out of alignment.

Many pairs are vulnerable in new Realignments. Since the focus of my Realignment example is JPY focused, USD/JPY becomes a free float pair so its price structure lives on its own. In past Realignments, USD/JPY experienced massive multi year sellofffs. Its vulnerable again to another selloff after Realignment completes and the ECB retains its economic posture.

Volatility will remain and should even increase since market prices are not random and its a market well corrdinated in its price structure to the new Realignment in front of us.

Brian Twomey

Brian Twomey Inside the Currency Market: AUD, NZD, GBP, EUR/CAD

Again, points mentioned are short term, they may or may not hold at 8:30. My points I term my Long / Short Lines because they represent highly accurate points based on the day’s trading and carefully calculated. Object is take breaks short or long as prices go higher or lower. Pays 50 pips, sometimes more, per break, per currency pair. Shoot for the 50 per pair, per break and you’ll be just fine. Never, never trade between levels.

Its the central bankers that tell us daily what they desire for their currency prices, I merely trail their thoughts and calculate their prices.

GBP/USD Long /Short lines till 8:30 1.5113, 1.5113 ( Twice, important point), 1.5121. Top range today 1.5665 then 1.5394, 1.5374, Bottoms 1.4577, 1.4832, 1.4852.

AUD/USD Long / Short Lines 0.8212, 0.8216, 0.8226, 0.8235, Topside range: 0.8868, 0.8727, 0.8516, Bottom 0.7917, 0.7725, 0.7603. Biggest AUD Break 0.8091

NZD/USD Long / Short Lines 0.7659, 0.7660, 0.7662, Topside range 0.8241, 0.8206, 0.8188, Bottoms 0.7084, 0.7115, 0.7130.

EUR/CAD 1.3950

Brian Twomey Inside the Currency Market btwomey.com

Brian Twomey Bio

http://forextv.com/author/btwomey/ Decent Bio Brian Twomey Inside the Currency Market: Mechanics, Valuation and Strategies Book http://www.amazon.com/Inside-Currency-Market-Mechanics-Strategies/dp/047095275X

My Stat System Using the Z Score http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_sb_noss?url=search-alias%3Dstripbooks&field-keywords=using%20the%20z%20score%20to%20trade%20foreign%20exchange

Don’t be alarmed by the price, guys are selling pure worthless trash that doesn’t work for $$ hundreds and Hundreds.

Can I trade? Here’s 25 trades targets, +2500 pips, 36 days at Fxstreet http://www.forexstreet.net/profiles/blogs/20-trade-recommendations-20-reasons-to-visit-forexstreet-net-come

Dark Days over Europe http://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/forex-live-analysis-room-interviews/2014/05/05/

Investopedia articles http://www.investopedia.com/contributors/277/

February FX street, Live Analysis Room, http://www.ustream.tv/recorded/44286045

Investing.com articles, profile http://www.investing.com/members/54090

The list goes on, Brian Twomey,

Inside the Currency Market: EUR/USD

Earlier post, I reported based on my Interest Rate strategy sell NZD/USD below 0.7730, 0.7728, 0.7726, 0.7712. Followed and you see NZD now at 0.7659. Rest my case.

AUD/USD. Same deal, Shorts below 0.8214, 0.8203, 0.8198, 0.8193. Reported AUD could be range bound for the day, proved true as low saw 0.8167. Yet again, pips were earned.

Short EUR/USD. Correct again. GBP/USD had two versions. First post 1.5144 area proved correct long, Second update post Long/shorts 1.5172, 1.5163, 1.5162.
Points reported are Long/ Short lines for the day, accurately calculated based on Interest Rate curves. Take the breaks long or short at reported levels and guess what, trades earn minimum 50 + pips per trade, per currency pair.

This post regards EUR/USD moving forward in upcoming Asia session. To head Long, following points must break, 1.1580, 1.1587, 1.1611, 1.1640, 1.1680. I took our old friend EUR out to 3 months along the curve.

From 3 months out, topside ranges: 1.3218, 1.2842, 1.2492, 1.2042, 1.1816. Bottom side ranges from 3 months out: 1.0142, 1.0438, 1.0731, 1.1133, 1.1345. Top and bottom side ranges change daily as well as Long Short Lines. Never, Never Trade between my reported points, its a set up for disaster. I’ve worked many, many years to understand the currency price intricacies and associated movements so please heed my warning regarding reported levels.

Brian Twomey, btwomey.com and twbrian.wordpress.com

Inside the Currency Market: NZD, AUD, GBP

NZD/USD Long short Lines for American markets are found at 0.7730, 0.7728, 0.7726, 0.7712, topside range fell about 50 pips since last post from 0.7785.

AUD/USD Long short Lines for American markets are found at 0.8214, 0.8203, 0.8193, 0.8198, Previous supports below are now gone.

GBP/USD Long short lines for American markets are found at 1.5172, 1.5163, 1.5162. Larger ranges are found at 1.4556 – 1.5750.

Brian Twomey

Inside the Currency Market: Daily Trades, AUD, NZD, GBP, EUR

Okay, I’m Brian Twomey, Inside the Currency Market Brian Twomey at btwomey.com. New site is in process, excuse this shoddy site but must work with it for now for many, many friends, traders, readers.

Strategies that follow are day trades only and are interest rate trades given to us by the central banks. Many know these trades as my Long/ Short Lines. Take the breaks of the lines as I will and we take 50 pips per break, per pair. Updates at 8:35 upon the FIX. Never, Never trade inside my points mentioned. These points are carefully calculated and well understood for time immemorial in regards to the overall long / short strategy. Ranges accompany Points, Ranges change daily as do the Long Short Points. The central banks send us these messages in regards to daily ranges.

NZD/USD So far we are short for the day. Break lines today come in at 0.7785, 0.7785 ( twice so vital) and 0.7786. Lines today are close and not expected to break, sell rallies. Above lines break, then Long. Ranges: 0.7546, 0.7530 and 0.7514 Vs 0.8058, 0.8041 and 0.8024. The message today from the RBNZ is lower exchange rate.

AUD/USD Long /Short Lines 0.8199, 0.8191, 0.8181 and 0.8175. Ranges 0.8851, 0.8712, 0.8502 Vs 0.7860, 0.7670, 0.7548. Our breaks at the lower end at 0.8181 then 0.8175 are 6 pips. probably better to wait for 0.8175 to break before short because the message today from the RBA is range bound.

GBP/USD. Long / Short Lines today 1.5153, 1.5143, 1.5144. Ranges 1.4556, 1.4810, 1.4881 Vs 1.5750, 1.5479, 1.5405.

EUR/USD Sort term rates reveals EUR/USD has a severe problem as the first line comes in at 1.2210. Part of that problem is seen in EUR/CHF, USD/CHF and all other CHF pairs. This means stay away from CHF pairs because the market has yet to normalize and is still a far distance to normalization. Interest rates along the curve as I’ve presented here tells us much of the minds of the central banks and what they want for their exchange and interest rates. Further along the Interest rate curve, Long Short: 1.1722, 1.1680, 1.1647, 1.1619.
Ranges: 1.3018, 1.2652, 1.2210, 1.1983 Vs 1.0343, 1.0642, 1.1028, 1.1237.

USD/CAD. Not reported due because CAD prices have severe problems. USD/CAD is just as overbought as CAD/USD. This means stay away. Again seen by the BOC as our message.

Updates at 8:30 as changes may occur slightly in Long short points. I’m known to be exact and that’s the way I will remain so not to leave anything on the table.

A full Statistical trading method is found in my other book, Using the Z Score, found below. Uses it to trade any financial instrument in whole or in its many parts.

http://www.amazon.com/Using-Foreign-Exchange-Financial-Instruments-ebook/dp/B00AQKMBGK

Brian Twomey

EUR/CZK and the 27.00 Floor

EUR/CZK

What’s interesting about EUR/CZK in light of the recent break of the EUR/CHF 1.2000 Floor is EUR/CZK since November 2013 has its own floor at 27.0 and set by the Czech central bank, the CNB. The object is to employ the exchange rate as the monetary policy tool to meet the 2% Inflation target, a target set since 2010. The 27.00 Floor will be maintained by the CNB by means to buy and sell Koruna’s or Euros.

The current 1 year Inflation CNB forecast is 1.5% and 2% in 3 years. Current Inflation reported November 2014 rose by 0.6% to 0.572 but fell to 0.08% in December. Current GDP is forecast to 2.3% and down from 2.4% due to weaker exports to Germany. The CNB’s Base Rate, the 2 Week Repo Rate was 0.05% in November 2012 and remains at 0.05% at last report.

EUR/CZK is forecast until January 2015 to 27.60 then a possible drop to 27.34 during 2015. EUR/CZK was Fixed at 27.79 last Friday by the ECB. My forecast reveals short term, EUR/CZK must clear 27.81 to move higher then next 28.14, 28.63 and 29.16. The lower end range reveals 27.05 must break lower to target 26.57. But the goal of the CNB is to maintain EUR/CZK at around the middle to upper 27.00’s. At EUR/CZK 27.79 is actually CZK/EUR 0.0359.

Brian Twomey Inside the Currency Market btwomey.com

This Blog is Brian Twomey Inside the Currency Market btwomey.com

EUR/USD and EUR Crosses

EUR/USD and EUR Crosses

The common theme between EUR/USD and among all EUR crosses is the positive correlations all around except and once again EUR/NZD. EUR/NZD for the past month since it dropped from its 1.5600 highs to break 6 year lows at 1.4900 has been a lost and floater pair as its prices roamed between revolving correlations between NZD/USD and EUR/USD. In the upcoming week, NZD/USD will be responsible for EUR/NZD movements.

EUR/CAD and EUR/AUD offers the best pip opportunities among EUR crosses this week because both are approaching big levels. EUR/CAD for example must break 1.3712 to head lower and its just below current 1.3846. EUR/AUD from current 1.4051 also approaches vital 1.3753 just below. Both EUR/CAD and EUR/AUD are oversold and in make or break mode. To consider its counterpart EUR/USD, its not the 5.6% Volatility at issue but rather price has varied 3.7% since the big breaks from 1.3300 and 1.2500. AUD/USD saw its bottoms at 0.8000’s at a 4.1% variation upon 0.9400 breaks and hasn’t been close to 0.8000’s since. My EUR/USD concern is we could be heading for a temporary bottom or a range bound condition.

EUR/USD. Previously mentioned 1.1760 now 1.1748 was a huge break because significant support is not seen until the ultimate bottom at 1.1103 and from current 1.1558, the bottom is 455 pips. Any rises during the week must clear 1.1568, 1.1612, 1.1638 and then a rough patch back to 1.1748 at 1.1689 and 1.1694. Below supports are seen at 1.1554, 1.1506, 1.1400 and 1.1389.

EUR/AUD. From current 1.4051, 1.3753 approaches below and must break to head lower. Along the way, supports lies at 1.4036, 1.4036 then on to 1.3897 and 1.3851. Above includes 1.4066, 1.4081, 1.4105, 1.4107, 1.4149 then next sell point at 1.4221. EUR/AUD is oversold.

EUR/CAD. The big break below from current 1.3846 lies at 1.3712 but current price is severely oversold. The current range lies between 1.4160 -1.4194 to 1.3712 below. As long as price remains below upper ranges at 1.4160 then any rises should see continued price falls. Points below: 1.3827, 1.3809, 1.3780 then on to 1.3712. Above points include a big break at 1.3890, 1.3909, 1.3950, 1.4160 then rough resistance at 1.4183, 1.4188, 1.4194.

EUR/JPY. From current 135.63, again as all EUR crosses, the big break for EUR/JPY lies just below at 132.80 with supports located at 135.12, 134.24, 133.65 and above we have 136.87, 137.84, 138.91 then on to big breaks at 140.97. EUR/JPY is trading within a range between 132.80 – 140.97.

EUR/GBP. From current 0.7633, big break looms below at 0.7541 and a break sees 0.7445 and 0.7389. Price must remain below 0.7713 and 0.7772 for any shot to break 0.7541. The range lies between 0.7541 – 0.7827. Supports below include: 0.7613, 0.7611, 0.7574, 0.7548. Above vital points: 0.7652, 0.7674, 0.7738, 0.7772.

The end result, EUR crosses are all approaching big points just below current prices and all crosses are oversold. Failure to break important points will see EUR crosses head higher. The first sign EUR crosses head higher is EUR is overbought Vs Cross counterparts. EUR is overbought Vs CAD, Overbought Vs AUD, Overbought Vs JPY. But the most pronounced overbought situation is EUR/CAD followed by EUR/AUD. EUR/AUD offers the widest ranges vs EUR/CAD.

Brian Twomey

Committment of Traders: Currencies, Treasuries, Gold, Copper, Silver

Click to access lgtraderposavgs.pdf

Currencies http://www.cftc.gov/dea/options/deacmesof.htm

Silver, Copper, Gold http://www.cftc.gov/dea/options/deacmxsof.htm

CBOE Treasuries http://www.cftc.gov/dea/options/deacbtsof.htm

Brian Twomey Inside the Currency Market, New Site, New Name Under Development, Ready Next week

Much apologies to my many friends, readers, followers and many who rely on my trade Recommendations daily. A new site, new name is under construction as I write. For now contacts at btwomey.com, that’s Inside the Currency Market website. Expect more of the same, expert market commentary, daily hitting trade Targets, future market views and much more. I am and will remain ahead of the curve for all who read, follow and trade. Your Friend Brian Twomey

Inside the Currency Market Brian Twomey Voted 9 of 10 best Fxstreet Interviews 2014

Thank you Fxstreet, administrators, Traders, Dale and Mauiccio, Live Analysis Room, Live Analysis Room Traders and fxstreet.net to honor me with such a wonderful honor and prestige and for vote of confidence in the many daily Trade calls and big picture Calls. Excuse ego aspect but I called the rising volatility, Dark Days coming for Europe and much more. Calls were made long before so we were again ahead of the curve. Follow, read and trade with everybody’s friend Brian Twomey and all will be ahead of any curve. Blessings from the forex Gods. A phrase borrowed from a dear friend and brother who has taught me much and given me his 41 years of knowledge in FX and FX Trading.
Please excuse the shoddy site. A new professional site and site name is under development and will be ready to go in a few days so we all may participate and trade the markets. Your Friend Brian

Brian Twomey USD/INR, USD/THB, USD/KRW

Asia Pairs, USD/THB, USD/INR, USD/KRW

USD/THB. Thai Baht is in an interesting price position. From current 32.73, price lies exactly on a vital support and resistance line. Above the 100 day average at 32.70 and 32.73 targets 32.92 while below 32.70 targets 32.52 on an intraday basis. The big break for the Thai Baht resides at 33.30 just above present price. On the way to 33.30 lies Resistance points that must break at 32.80, 32.95, 33.05 then on to the 33.30 break. Big points below lie at 31.99 and 31.79. To reach those destinations then breaks must be seen at 32.52, 32.29, 32.23. Currently the Thai Baht is oversold long term but any price rises intraday should be sold as the closer price meets the 33.30 point then the more overbought price becomes. The overall range is found between 33.30 above and 31.99 and 31.70 below.

USD/INR. From current 62.17, price lies dead on the 5 day average. From the 5 day average, price extremes lie at 61.87 below and 62.46 above. Intraday, price must hold at 62.12 to see longs continue. Longer term, price is approaching overbought so sell rallies may be the way. The longer term range is found between 62.79 above and 61.49 below but 62.14 and 62.12 must break to see lower prices.

USD/KRW From current 1086.36, the Korean Won is approaching important levels at 1121.73, 1125.90, 1131.90 and 1134.82. The resistance is strong but a break higher sees prices next in the 1200.00’s quite easily. Medium and longer term, price has every ability to break 1100’s and head higher beginning first at 1163.63 but price must first clear 1106.25. Prices intraday however appear to be contained between extremes at 1096.99 – 1075.90. To head higher, 1087.47 must break then important level at 1088.21 then 1097.80 and on to 1106.25.
Prices below must first break 1085.31 then 1082.50 and 1082.48. Should both points break lower at 1082’s, next supports aren’t seen until 1077.69, 1063.71 and 1050.50, 1043.23 and 1049.04.

The interesting pair is Asia is easily the Korean Won as it tracks USD/JPY and more specifically higher. As the Korean Won dropped vs USD due from USD/JPY buying, the Bank of Korea cut its interest rate ( Base Rate) twice in the last 6 months from 2.5% to current 2.0% and down from the 3.2% highs in 2011. The BOK ( Korean Central Bank) meets Thursday and another cut is expected. The Won will remain volatile particularly as it tracks USD/JPY but more so because Inflation targets will come under review as the 2.5% – 3.5% Band will need an adjustment.

Brian Twomey Inside the Currency Market btwomey.com and twbrian.wordpress.com A new site is under development and will be operational in a few days

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