Asia Pairs, USD/THB, USD/INR, USD/KRW
USD/THB. Thai Baht is in an interesting price position. From current 32.73, price lies exactly on a vital support and resistance line. Above the 100 day average at 32.70 and 32.73 targets 32.92 while below 32.70 targets 32.52 on an intraday basis. The big break for the Thai Baht resides at 33.30 just above present price. On the way to 33.30 lies Resistance points that must break at 32.80, 32.95, 33.05 then on to the 33.30 break. Big points below lie at 31.99 and 31.79. To reach those destinations then breaks must be seen at 32.52, 32.29, 32.23. Currently the Thai Baht is oversold long term but any price rises intraday should be sold as the closer price meets the 33.30 point then the more overbought price becomes. The overall range is found between 33.30 above and 31.99 and 31.70 below.
USD/INR. From current 62.17, price lies dead on the 5 day average. From the 5 day average, price extremes lie at 61.87 below and 62.46 above. Intraday, price must hold at 62.12 to see longs continue. Longer term, price is approaching overbought so sell rallies may be the way. The longer term range is found between 62.79 above and 61.49 below but 62.14 and 62.12 must break to see lower prices.
USD/KRW From current 1086.36, the Korean Won is approaching important levels at 1121.73, 1125.90, 1131.90 and 1134.82. The resistance is strong but a break higher sees prices next in the 1200.00’s quite easily. Medium and longer term, price has every ability to break 1100’s and head higher beginning first at 1163.63 but price must first clear 1106.25. Prices intraday however appear to be contained between extremes at 1096.99 – 1075.90. To head higher, 1087.47 must break then important level at 1088.21 then 1097.80 and on to 1106.25.
Prices below must first break 1085.31 then 1082.50 and 1082.48. Should both points break lower at 1082’s, next supports aren’t seen until 1077.69, 1063.71 and 1050.50, 1043.23 and 1049.04.
The interesting pair is Asia is easily the Korean Won as it tracks USD/JPY and more specifically higher. As the Korean Won dropped vs USD due from USD/JPY buying, the Bank of Korea cut its interest rate ( Base Rate) twice in the last 6 months from 2.5% to current 2.0% and down from the 3.2% highs in 2011. The BOK ( Korean Central Bank) meets Thursday and another cut is expected. The Won will remain volatile particularly as it tracks USD/JPY but more so because Inflation targets will come under review as the 2.5% – 3.5% Band will need an adjustment.
Brian Twomey Inside the Currency Market btwomey.com and twbrian.wordpress.com A new site is under development and will be operational in a few days