Inside the Currency Market: Non Farm Payrolls
Posted by Brian Twomey on May 8, 2015 at 11:24amView Blog
NFP last month was 126 and 264 March. Both were very preliminary for the year. NFP based on 10 year data is highly oversold. 126 from last month is literally on the bottom.
10 year average = 66.19, 5 year = Negative 498.88, 2 year = 191.37, 1 year = 208.83. Range = 66.19 – 191. 10 year Median = 146. Entire 10 year range 220 or 110 on a high / low basis. 110 + 126 = 230 forecast. All numbers in thousands. If I add 10 year average 66.19 to 110, 176 is the number.
Will we beat 191. This is a high bar from last month and I don’t see it.
1st and 3rd Quartiles are located between high 223 – low 3,000 with 146 Median. 146 is the number to beat. Economically, these numbers are pathetic. 7 years after crisis, this is the best we get. Tradgedy and doesn’t say this economy is okay.
If I employ BIS calculations, 136,15 is the number. This is a test number and maybe totally off the Mark.
10 year average and data charted, the topside is blocked with plenty of downside, light years of downside. Its an ugly picture.
To trade. Since we have such a low bar from 66 average and last month at 126, anything above 126 should send this Euro and GBP/USD down. 234 is the forecast. An USD longs, USD/CAD is the way.
Brian Twomey Inside the Currency Market, btwomey.com