Inside the Currency Market: EUR/INR, EUR/USD, European History


From current 70.68, EUR/INR is oversold. Current short term range is found between 69.93 – 71.56. Breaks either side represent a new trend. Larger range is found between 70.04 – 75.17. Its a 500 pip range and not bad for the RBI. But current price is at lower bounds of the larger range and way oversold. Current Greek negotiations are not only breaking down but the Eurogroup and Greece proposals are miles apart. No resolution in sight but most Eurogroup nations Finland, Germany, Netherlands for example won’t vote 1 EURO to new Greek loans, many others as well. Why Finland and others is because the respective parliaments won’t approve a Greek loan but the Greeks appear to be asking for far more than what was even considered originally. France is Greece’s only ally in Europe. Nothing new for France to be the outlier of Europe. Its a Russian standoff without resolution in sight.

Ever get a chance to read Gold Wars Davidson and Weil 1971, the story of the world’s Monetary Crisis from the 1960’s and 1970’s then the current Greek crisis is a Europe repeat. Ever get a chance to read about the Austrian bank crisis of 1930’s, its a Europe repeat. Ever get a chance to read about punishing German Reparations to threaten German existence, its a Europe repeat. Ever get a chance to read Hoover Memoirs and see how the FED accomodated Europe with artificially low interest rates from 1913 – 1930, its a Europe repeat. How about Russian short sales of Wheat in the 1920’s to threaten European economic implosion. Russian incursions in Greek unions after WW 2. The Marshall Plan was based on Greeks originally. The difference this time is one common currency, many nations, nationalities, cultures, histories and allies. The currency implodes, Europe implodes.

EUR/INR from 70.68, next above 70.80, 70.88, 71.05, 71.24, 71.28, 71.56, 71.93, 72.12, 72.60. Below supports: 70.63, 70.58, 70.50, 70.13, 70.11, 70.04, 69.93. Most important above 70.63. Breaks below, then short. Buy sell points at extremes are found above at 72.75, 71.74 and 71.26. Below buy points 68.81, 68.75, 68.66, 68.16. Note the many support/ Resistance points. INR is strictly an Asian pair in its design, construction, movements and its typical to see so many points between prices.

EUR/USD. Must break at today’s opening 1.1034 to see lower. Extreme buy points 1.0860 and 1.0861 Vs above sell 1.1150 and 1.1184. Price current is at top of the range. Due to Greece, its again sell rallies for the week. If we see a rally from Greek agreement, sell it. At some point, QE may expand to accommodate any Greece deal. That means lower interest rates. I question if the Deposit rate comes down further as well. Why?. To accommodate Greece borrowing costs.

Brian Twomey Inside the Currency Market, More trades, data, info to follow


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