What’s happening with EUR is the ECB is holding its interest rates close and in tight ranges. This has been going on for weeks. The last real dip was seen July 1, Wednesday. If a dip in EUR was seen that day, it was bought. That’s why the last 3 Sunday openings saw the EUR bought but its also why rises were sold. This EUR is protected from volatility due most probably from this Greek problem. What is seen is classic, so so typical ECB. The downside is locked tight. And only slight daylight exists above.
2 lines are coming down on EUR/USD from above, 1.1245 and 1.1192. Both are falling, slowly. Range breaks below are found at 1.1094 and 1.0955. Note today’s EUR/USD opening dead stopped at 1.1095 then bounced. Range breaks above 1.1144 and 1.1285. Note 1.1285 is above the falling line at 1.1245. Not likely we see 1.1285 break in coming days. The entire EUR/USD curve is falling, its down sloping.
My points aren’t perfect because its Friday’s data but its close. The ECB even stopped releasing data over the weekends to offer how guarded they are regarding volatility and the Greece situation. So the curve 1.1120, 1.1135, 1.1149, 1.1162, 1.1174, 1.1186. Begin looking to sell right around the 1.1174 and 1.1186 area. That’s the perfect points if seen. That should mean as well we see a slight rise in EUR/JPY then begin looking for the sells right around the 137.50ish area if seen.
I will watch this EUR situation closer throughout the week and report.
Brian Twomey Inside the Currency Market, btwomey.com