2 big points vital to EUR/USD above, 1.1040 and 1.1145. Point 1.1040 is stasis in the past 3 days while 1.1145 is dropping slowly. Its quite easy to see this EUR/USD ranging back between 1.1040 – 1.1145 until we see the next Greek bombshell drop. Its a matter of time as we now deal with the Greek Parliamentary vote, continued bank closes for 2 more months, questions of the ELA assistance program, Syrzia Party uproars, positions of the IMF, quantified Euros needed by Greece, increased QE by the ECB. Then we have the respective Eurogroup parliamentary votes. Finland is no, Germany appears no, Netherlands appears no. The list goes on.
To offer context to current 1.1016. Bottoms are found at 1.0767, 1.0544, 1.0519, 1.0395 and 1.0344. I see the bottoms coming as we continue to see the slow drip of Greek news. To rise above, breaks must be seen above at 1.1007, 1.1010, 1.1025, 1.1040, 1.1056. Point 1.1056 is vital to higher levels then we jump to 1.1085, 1.1114, 1.1123, 1.1145. I would look to the 1.1056 area to sell again.
What holds EUR/USD below is 1.1002 then 1.0976 and 1.0967, 1.0895, 1.0870. The big point break in this series is 1.0895. That begins the new downward trend to see far lower levels. Its a matter of time as intraday we’re not close to oversold. As long as price holds below vital 1.1040, the downtrend is just beginning.
The short term risk overnight is the UK Wage Data. That is a vital release to determine GBP direction but may solidify the BOE decision to raise rates.
Brian Twomey Inside the Currency Market, btwomey.com