RBNZ meets this Thursday, 23rd. NZD money markets tell us a drop in OCR is significantly priced for the cut. Its an overwhelming yes vote at this stage. So expect NZD and all NZD pairs to see good volatility this week as well as next week. Cut or no cut, we see volatility.
Above. The big point above is 0.6608. This line hasn’t moved in 3 days. But know this, NZD/USD is severely oversold at the 1500 and 5 year averages. The remainder averages are fine. And the break at 0.6608 is a trend just beginning. NZD/USD is fighting oversold short term Vs trends just beginning. If the RBNZ cuts as expected then we could see 0.6100’s very soon. Also if RBNZ cuts, NZD/US drops straight down.
Working from 0.6522, next above comes 0.6538, 0.6542, 0.6548, 0.6549, 0.6579, 0.6585, 0.6599, 0.6608. Then 0.6633, 0.6659, 0.6679. What’s important above is 0.6548, 0.6549 and 0.6585. Why. Overbought intraday and sell point begins at 0.6548. Point 0.6585 is a range break. This point isn’t seen breaking. Many points here I agree, that’s NZD. But also highly respect each point because they are significant.
Below. Must see breaks at 0.6521, 0.6519, 0.6508, 0.6504, 0.6503, 0.6480, 0.6458, 0.6434, 0.6411, 0.6380. Our larger range is found from 0.6585 – 0.6458. The strategy moving forward is sell and sell rallies. A break of 0.6608 changes shorts to longs but I don’t see it unless the RNNZ reneges on its Hike. Then we want to watch out above. I will continue updates.
Oh thank you all to read and follow along again. Apologize for this site, its all I have and it may never see an update. To my friends Thank you America, my mates in the UK, Tusen Takk, Chokran, Dalu, Nagode ( which dialect), Go raibh maith, Tov Toda Shalom, Dankie
Brian Twomey Inside the Currency Market, btwomey.com