Current GBP/JPY Range 192.23 — 191.60. Above 192.23 targets points at 193.21 and 191.35 on the way to next range tops at 194.19 and 194.48. Below 191.60, targets next ranges at 189.68, 189.64 and 189.39. Most important point 189.64. The break of 189.64 sees the downside gain speed to 189.39 188.70, 188.01 and 187.82, 187.18.
GBP/JPY Correlates at a 1 year view to GBP/USD 97%. But GBP/JPY also Correlates to USD/JPY at 99%. This isn’t good or normal. Volatility is running at 6.7%, that’s high and says GBP/JPY will see good movements. GBP/JPY is way way overbought Vs GBP/USD and overbought Vs USD/JPY. Shorts is the way for GBP/JPY.
Price closed at 191.88 but below the vital break above at 191.93. The curve slopes downward. Points are found 191.91, 191.93, 191.95, 191.97, 192.01, 192.02, 192.11 and 192.13. Shorts must remain below 191.93 to target first break at 191.60 then 189.68 and 64.
Again points, levels, targets, ranges are perfectly calculated and are exact.
Brian Twomey Inside the Currency Market, btwomey.com
The June 15 jobs data revealed Wages in the UK rose at their fastest pace since August 2011 at 2.7% while the present unemployment rate for under 16 years of age remained at 5.6% since December – February 2015. The 16 -64 years of age category also held steady during the same period at 5.8% based on current data from the UK Office of National Statistics. A cursory view however what’s important is the dramatic effects GBP interest rates and yields had on that one June 15 release. UK Yields from 3 month — 1 year now trade above USD yields. The UK 2 year yield trades below USD but is currently bumping up against USD. Interest rates spiked to current peaks and hasn’t moved since June 15. As mentioned dips will be bought and GBP will hold in small ranges. So far that has been the case and the future appears to hold the same promise. But the spike in yields and interest rates also represents a vote of confidence in the BOE hiking the Bank Rate sometime in the future. What changes the present course for the BOE is for bad data to appear. Then look out below GBP as it will drop like a rock and the distace to travel below is very far and wide. The next Wage release date is Ausist 12.
GBP/USD. The rough patches of Resistance above at 1.5800’s are many and begin at 1.5826, 1.5853, 1.5893 and 1.5896. Most important in this series is 1.5893. To go higher, GBP/USD must pass above all points. Overall, shorts are meant to sell below 1.5800’s but GBP is held in small small ranges due to trades at the front end of the curve.
The Current Range is found between 1.5530 — 1.5479 and 1.5477. Its a 51 – 53 pips range. Below 1.5479 and 1.5477 comes next 1.5393, 1.5324 and 1.5301. Above 1.5530 then next 1.5609, 1.5688, 1.5712. Above 1.5530 — 1.5688, ranges open wide and more volatility seen as the range bcomes 158 pips wide.The point at !.5712 holds prices to see 1.5800’s.
Price closed at 1.5504 and dead on a Support / Resistance point. To see shorts and to target 1.5479 and 1.5477 then 1.5504 must break lower. Points above on the way to 1.5530 begin at 1.5504, 1.5506, 1.5507, 1.5508, 1.5509, 1.5512 and 1.5521. The range between 1.5504 – 1.5509 is a dead neutral zone. If price holds below 1.5504 then shorts is the way to target the area at 1.5479 and 1.5477.
Brian Twomey Inside the Currency Market, btwomey.com
EUR/JPY closed at 135.81 and 9 pips below its next vital point at 135.89. Note EUR/USD closed at 1.0975 and 4 pips below my reported line at 1.0979. I reiterate 28 EUR currency pairs, interest rates and German Yields are all bunched together and causing a tight tight range market. Any price movements seen occur at the most shortest end of the curve. EUR currency pairs are lost and uncertain as to their next direction. EUR/JPY is no different as its price moves over months has wandered in tight tight ranges. It Correlates to EUR/USD 44% and USD/JPY 0.08%. As JPY/USD the correlation becomes 0.19%. Correlations in EUR/JPY V EUR/USD and USD/JPY hasn’t varied in 2 months and running. EUR/JPY desperately needs a break below a significant price point to see not only better price moves, trends and direction but it must again fully marry to its true position as EUR/USD. That price break isn’t seen until 132.50’s crosses below.
EUR/JPY. Current ranges are located between 136.18 — 135.57 and 135.64. A break higher at 136.18 targets next ranges at 137.43 and 137.24. But current forward line is moving down from its present position at 137.45. This means lower 137’s will be a price struggle to break higher for EUR/JPY. Below: A break of 135.64 and 135.57 targets next range points below at 134.69, 134.53 and 134.34. Then we begin focus on 133.17.
Shortest term ranges to cover Asia to American morning are found between 135.87 and 135.88 — 135.21 and 135.20. A break of 135.20 and 21 must be seen in order for EUR/JPY to gain downside speed to 134.69. 135.20 and 135.21 is also the point to look for a possible bounce. EUR/JPY price is overbought and sell point is located at 136.56 –136.68. In case of a market fluke, Next sell points found at 137.24 and 137.33. The curve is downsloping. Next points above 135.87, 135.88, 135.89, 135.97, 136.06, 136.22, 136.38, 136.53, 136.68, 137.24, 137.33.
I reiterate most respectfully my points, targets, ranges are carefully calculated and perfectly exact. A more bolder yet no less respectful statement is my points, ranges, targets is not only what the central banks watch but they trade on these specific points. Many thank you’s Tak, US and Xie Xie, nandn, terima kasih
More EUR pairs and GBP pairs on the way.
Brian Twomey, Inside the Currency Market, btwomey.com