Inside the Currency Market: EUR/USD

EUR/USD

Bottom located 1.0995. Top 1.1051. Shortest term range 1.0995 – 1.1051. Any wonder why a 49 pip range today. The larger range 1.0829 -1.1161 and 1.1190. The Forward line, a special MA is located at 1.1172 and down 60 pips from last reported 1.1232. The entire market and prices are still very tight but what’s seen is the downside is well contained yet the upside is held by an unknown point that is stopping EUR from literally flying higher. Yet note overbought sell point is located from 1.1106 – 1.110. The market is well conatined and way overbought at 1.1161 and 1.1162. Both levels are the exact points holding EUR/USD to see 1.1214 and 1.1271. My own system reveals 1.1087 must clear above and the model has the point exactly at 1.1086 to offer context to the unknown point.

The next point above 1.1051 is 1.1062 but then comes a range break at 1.1063. Above 1.1063 then range becomes 1.1063 — 1.1161. Most important to the upside is 1.1087 and 1.1086. Overbought sell points 1.1106 – 1.1110. Below 1.1051 range point to see shorts 1.1037. Then range becomes 1.1037 – 1.0912 but first the bottom point must also break at 1.0995.

Along the way on a downslope curve is 1.1051, 1.1062, 1.1086, 1.1098, 1.1106 and 1.1110.

More EUR pairs on the way today. CAD pairs will be on the way. A special focus is coming on Latin America currency pairs Brazilian Real, Mexican Peso, Columbian Peso, Argentine Peso and Vs USD and EUR. Possibly more nations will be introduced.

For interested. Another book Using the Z Score to Trade, located here. I know a few using these models and doing very well. I don’t know prices of these books and I don’t have any control in that category http://www.amazon.com/Using-Foreign-Exchange-Financial-Instruments/dp/1481806327/ref=sr_1_1?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1438118343&sr=1-1&keywords=brian+twomey

Brian Twomey, Inside the Currency Market, btwomey.com

Inside the Currency Market: AUD/JPY

AUD/JPY

Bottom found 89.97. Currently AUD/JPY is stuck between 89.97 – 90.43. But overbought sell point found 90.59 — 90.69. The larger range is found between 90.43 – 89.52. But ranges targets and breaks on the way down 89.82, 89.52, 89.23 then 88.71 and 88.62. Range break next 91.03, 91.33 and 91.63 So Range 91.03 — 89.82 but 89.97 must break.

Shorts must remain below 90.44, 90.43 and 90.42 to target 89.97 then 89.82, 89.52. Longs must clear 90.42, 90.43 and 90.44 to next 90.49, 90.50 and sell point at 90.69. The break of current range 90.43 – 89.97 dictates next moves. AUD/JPY as well holds no excitement whatsoever. I can’t help this situation, its derived from the central bankers. Maybe we’ll try GBP pairs next. This afternoon around 1:00, I will report EUR/USD and EUR pairs.

AUD/CAD. Holding just above at 0.9510 the big break below at 0.9476. Watch this point close today and in days ahead.

Brian Twomey Inside the Currency Market, btwomey.com

Inside the Currency Market: AUD/USD

AUD/USD

The time and effort to develop this model and follow the central banks is astounding but the model is perfect in its accuracy in terms of targets, ranges, levels and the full price view in every, every currency pair. We won’t ever get caught on a price deviation nor will we suffer losses. The downside to the model is it takes time to calculate to insure accuracy. After I viewed NZD/USD and NZD/CAD last night, I didn’t see much excitement. Yet both pairs rose what 40 pips yet it achieved those 40 pips while price was overbought. So the downside is time devoted to calculations then disappointment occurrs due to a no trade or undecided currency price. Yet the other profound aspect to the model is to warn when prices aren’t correct and stay away when necessary to wait for a better day in the particular currency pair. When a currency price is in constant motion, at times it finds itself in undecided or just terrible positions. In that instance, we find another pair and not risk the trade. Many time when one pair has problems or is undecided then all pairs are in the same positions because currency pairs and prices are so interconnnected.
AUD and NZD both share a relationship to Europe as AUD/EUR and NZD/EUR. Without both pairs, NZD and AUD’s connection to Europe would sever. When a price problem is seen in NZD/USD and AUD/USD, typically the problem is due to NZD/EUR and AUD/EUR because of their wide ranges. The problem is related to central banks price agreement or disagreement between EUR/AUD, EUR/NZD and AUD/EUR and NZD/EUR. Sometimes its due to a back room deal in maybe an export arrangement other times it may even be just a price fluke, a discrepancy due to the way the numbers and prices worked from the current prices. Other times in disagreements, the ECB and RBNZ and RBA perform price battles V each other to fight for their price. What I see in AUD is not much different from last night’s NZD. What is seen is a tight tight market in both AUD and NZD. Its the same tight tight market seen in German V USD yields. Yields, interest rates are compressing to cause our tight tight situation.

AUD/USD. The bottom is found at 0.7280. The range is found between 0.7317 — 0.7267.However the bottom is 0.7280. Below 0.7267 then next 0.7243 and 0.7220. Overall, a solid solid bottom exists at 0.7177 and 0.7170. Above 0.7317 ranges then next 0.7366 and solid solid at 0.7390.

Shorts need a break at 0.7316, 0.7317, 0.7318. Then we target the bottom at 0.7280 and below. Overbought sell point 0.7338. Points above 0.7316 and 0.7317, Next 0.7318, 0.7322 and 0.7338. Sell and sell rallies is the way. Over time, AUD is heading much lower. What changes in ranges, levels, hardly 1 pip changes in the calculations.

More pairs coming.

Brian Twomey, Inside the Currency Market, btwomey.com