Inside the Currency Market: AUD/USD

We’ve seen a 21 pip drop from the reported break of 0.7377. The bottom is located at 0.7332. As long as price remains below 0.7370, target becomes 0.7332. We want to watch 0.7332 target because a range break is found below at 0.7344. 0.7344 must break to continue to target 0.7332. Range break above is located at 0.7370 and 0.7394. Only a break of 0.7370 targets next 0.7394.

Overall range 0.7370 – 0.7344, 26 pips. Or above 0.7370 then range becomes 0.7370 – 0.7394, 24 pips. AUD is locked between two ranges valued at 26 and 24 pips. The range below 0.7344 id located at 0.7296.

What’s the strategy, overall is sell and sell rallies. Immediately strategy, short on a break of 0.7344 to target 0.7332 then reverse back to the resolution at 0.7344 and 0.7370.

Brian Twomey, Inside the Currency Market, btwomey.com

Inside the Currency Market: EUR/USD

Note mentioned AUD bottom 0.7377 and take the break, 5 hours later AUD saw lows at 0.7369. MXN flew to 16.30, I stated target 16.2544 from break at 16.143.The trade profited well but target was off. That’s rare to see. I did mention MXN was set for a big move. Its been about 1 month since I began posting trades, data and market info. All trades have been very profitable and dead perfect in ranges, targets and levels. Remember the 3 AUD trades and 2 EUR trades called perfectly and profitably in the same morning. We’re not hitting 20 pip targets and we’re not in it for 20 pip trades. I’m working my way around to other websites and many new traders are viewing my trades, data and info. So please allow the Rah rah look at me speech every now and then. MXN trades will continue because its a valuable and forward looking currency pair. In days, we will be trading BRL and Chile. G10 pairs as well continues and I will expand to CAD and many other pairs. I’m open for suggestions if anybody needs or wants to trade another pair. To the many loyal readers, followers and traders. I thank you very much for views and with all godspeed, we continue our profitable run together.

EUR/USD Bottom 1.0810. Range break above 1.0973. Range break below 1.0647. Full range 1.0973 — 1.0647, 326 pip range. I can’t stress the importance of 1.0973. its a level but also a range point. To go higher and sustain higher gains, 1.0973 must break.

Strategy. price must remain below 1.0864, 1.0865 and 1.0868 to target 1.0810. We reverse long at 1.0810 to target again the vicinity at 1.0864. We are looking for our usual 100 pips on the 1.0810 bottom and reverse. Above 1.0868, target becomes 1.0908. This forecast is good until about 6 am EST

Brian Twomey, Inside the Currency Market, btwomey.com

Inside the Currency Market: MXN/USD

The proper alignment is MXN/USD although quotes are seen as USD/MXN. Again its the tons and tons of wrong information from those millions that just don’t have a clue what they do or say. To understand why these trivialities mean something is to understand USD/MXN should be quoted as 0.0618 while MXN/USD is correctly quoted as 16.1736. The bank of Mexico quotes a straight Peso price then other currencies are quoted as MXN/Other pair. The Mexican Peso appears to be firmly connected to the IMF’s Special Drawing Right as the means to price their currency. The sole job of the Bank of Mexico through its 7 major banks is to supply Pesos to the economy and maintain Inflation at target ranges. The current Inflation rate is 2.87% while the overnight rate is at 3.00%. This is not terrible at all. From an economic standpoint, I see an oil exporter nation that transitioned into a manufacturing economy whose 83% of all manufactured products are exported to the United States. The 26% of automobile exports to the United States are derived from the Japanese car companies that established plants in Mexico. Understand that Mexico and japan are two nations locked at the hip since way back to the 1800’s. Its why MXN/JPY is such an important pair as much as USD is to Mexico.

MXN/USD bottom is located at 16.0927. Range break below 16.0118 and 15.9730. Range break above 16.2544. The average ranges are found between 17.000’s — 14.000, very wide ranges. What I see for the Peso is a big move on the way.

Strategy is long above 1.1736 and 16.1743. Then MXN/USD flys higher to target 16.2180, 16.2309 and 16.2544. Price must, must clear above 16.1743. Failure to break 16.1736 means target becomes 16.0118. I recommend the long above 16.1743 as we have an oversold MXN/USD.

Brian Twomey, Inside the Currency Market, btwomey.com

Inside the Currency Market: AUD/USD

From the update this morning, our 0.7420 sell point was violated by 8 pips and traveled to 0.7428. As I view other pairs, similar violations occurred in those prices. Our target at the 0.7428 sell point was 0.7359 but with the afternoon changeover, the bottom target was raised to now 0.7377. The profit on the trade is 51 pips instead of the original 61 pips. As I mentioned and will mention again, AUD is very volatile and will continue to be volatile for the next few days. We will still hit perfect targets and earn profits but it may require more posts and calculations to monitor the volatility. The next AUD post will be 9:30 p.m. EST as I’m in the US. For now we must trade what is offered until changes occur.

The current short term range is found between 0.7414 – 0.7377, a 37 pip range. The point at 0.7377 must break lower to target 0.7340 and 0.7291. A break higher at 0.7414 targets 0.7438 then the range top at 0.7489. Price will remain below 0.7414 for the remainder of the day until AUD markets open and begin trading. AUD is currently in a bad position and a 37 pip tight range.

Above 0.7414 comes next 0.7418, 0.7423 and 0.7438 target. The strategy is short on a break of 0.7377 to target 0.7340 then we monitor a possible break at 0.7340 to target next 0.7291.

Brian Twomey Inside the Currency Market, btwomey.com

Inside the Currency Market: AUD/USD Update

Slight changes to earlier AUD forecast. The new bottom and target is found at 0.7359 upon a break of 0.7397 and 0.7396. Target above and overbought sell point 0.7420. New range above 0.7470. New range bottom 0.7275. Full range 0.7470 – 0.7275, 195 pips. The overall range widened by 48 pips from 147 this morning. See my point regarding AUD volatility.

Strategy. Sell 0.7420, target 0.7359. good chance we reverse long at 0.7359. Points from 0.7420 then 0.7405, 0.7400, 0.7397, 0.7396 then target 0.7359.

Next update around 1:00 EST

Brian Twomey Inside the Currency Market, btwomey.com

Inside the Currency Market: AUD/USD

The MXN trade performed as written, now price sits at 16.12 and at the exact position mentioned. MXN offers much to currency prices so a continued focus will be the way.

AUD review. The RBA never signaled a rate hike or drop. As written many times regarding certain quirks in each currency pair, AUD typically signals an RBA OCR hike or drop 5 days before. The statement is historically accurate since OCR was first introduced in 1969. An OCR movement wasn’t seen. While the RBA signals 5 days before, 5 days after an OCR move is very volatile as Australia markets settle into the new levels of OCR. What we see today is volatility directly from the exchange rate rather than from Australia markets so a disjunction exists in aligned prices. What we will see is more volatility as the price disjunction settles. Typically 5 days is the maximum number of days for AUD to settle. What the RBA offered upon announcement was a free trade.

AUD/USD jumped upon announcement from 0.7290 – 0.7393. Why? Look at range bottoms, 0.7255, 0.7252 and a giant bottom at 0.7228. Then comes 0.7302 and target at 0.7399. The signal all around was a big long move to come. I speak most respectfully when I say I’ve been at this for nearly 12 continuous years. I never settled in 12 years on any one method or model because I was as much interested in the how’s and why’s of a currency price movement as much as a method to make profits come easier. So I’ve always grown year after year as knowledge expanded. I will grow for the next 12 god willing from the Forex Gods. So working from the current most advanced, most accurate model to date, I can see ever so clearly what’s going on with AUD. My model is the exact model used by every central bank the world over.

AUD/USD strategy. The bottom and target currently is found at 0.7338 upon a break of 0.7375 and 0.7376. Ranges above 0.7449, 0.7450, 0.7496. Range below 0.7302. Full range 0.7302 – 0.7449, 147 pips.
AUD is overbought at 0.7399. Point 7399 is the sell point to target 0.7338. Points on the way down 0.7384, 0.7376, 0.7375. Should the next range break at 0.7449 then the recommended short is delayed but not nullified.

Brian Twomey, Inside the Currency Market, btwomey.com