Inside the Currency Market: NZD/USD

The purpose to exclude GBP the past month was due to the Wage data last quarter. The Wage data release literally locked up UK markets to the point markets began pricing in interest rates hikes by the BOE. I saw a chart from a bank on what the effects of the Wage Data did to UK markets and it was just mouth dropping. Well I knew then the bottom side was also locked up tight for GBP/USD and all GBP pairs. But I also knew GBP/USD was not breaking 1.5800’s without an actual hike or stupendous fundamental data that says yes the BOE must now hike and has no choice. So for the past 2 months or so GBP/USD has been locked inside a range between 1.5400 to 1.5700’s. So I knew to leave GBP alone until we saw bad data that would get GBP moving to the downside or good data that would see the 1.5800 break. My vote is on bad data is coming and GBP would get moving short since the downside has light years to travel if we can see poor data. We’ve seen the UK will raise story before when GBP was at 1.7000’s and when Carney first assumed the position at the BOE. The question would the BOE raise before Yellen to me isn’t an argument. GBP is truly a terrific currency but in this age its a neutral currency pair trapped between a falling Europe and slowly improving US. GBP and the UK could never take the lead in regards to raising first as a neutral currency pair. its hard enough for the BOE to maintain its status vs the US as GBP/USD and Europe as GBP/EUR. Its a two front battle and it forces GBP neutrality. So EUR/USD ranged like 800 pips in the same period GBP/USD moved less than 300 pip ranges. So my focus was and will be on EUR pairs because it offers the best profit opportunities. The other dead currency pair story is CHF and another pair I didn’t lend focus because CHF is hardly worth the trouble. last point regarding rate hikes. I will see long before from my models if and /or when Yellen decides to raise so we will be ready long in advance.

NZD/USD. Bottom 0.6581. No range breaks are seen until 0.6800’s above or 0.6300’s below. Strategy. If 0.6614 breaks below then target becomes 0.6581. if 0.6615 breaks above then target becomes 0.6631. Reverse at 0.6581 and reverse at 0.6631. Points above 0.6615, next 0.6618, 0.6622, 0.6626, 0.6631. The two most important points in this series is 0.6615 and 0.6618. 0.6618 must break to continue higher.

Brian Twomey Inside the Currency Market, btwomey.com

Inside the Currency Market: EUR/USD

Understand this blog is 7 years old. In views, all I see is nations and how many views per nation. That’s it. I don’t see IP addresses nor any other information. I’m not interested to see anything else. Never will I be interested to see anything else in the future. This blog isn’t designed that way nor will it be designed that way in the future. Even if I had the ability, I wouldn’t track information nor will I ever track information. I’m writing here my views. Who knows from day to day. I write my interests, current news, Trades, markets. Those that know me over 3 years would know my interest change and I supply tons and tons of accurate information on trading, markets, economics, learning tools and techniques. I’m very careful in my accuracy and detail in all regards when it comes to writings. I realize this site needs an upgrade particularly as views literally skyrocketed. Talk exists to upgrade this site to something more professional but still never to be equipped with tracking information. My thing is come if you like. As all see these trades I offered so far over the past month hit perfectly, I may also ask for a few dollars for trades to help pay for my friends who help me upgrade. The goal is to upgrade calculations so I have speed and ability to post tons and tons of perfectly accurate trades in minutes. We’ll see how it goes. For now have at it and always thank you all for views and to the many loyal in many nations. Welcome Gulf States and thank you. Thank you Fxstreet. trading floor and twitter remains worthless. Soon i will sign out and eliminate them from existence. Thank you Fxtraderhub.com

Notice how we see GBP isn’t heading very far north while MXN is on the rise again. Its confirmation of a EUR drop. What’s holding EUR to head higher is the area between 1.1019 to 1.1072. For today, its found exactly at 1.1019. The downside has plenty of daylight.

EUR/USD. Bottom 1.0908, range break below 1.0763, above 1.1087. Overbought sell point 1.1019. To target 1.1019, 1.0963 must break. Strategy: Shorts below 1.0962 to target range bottom at 1.0908. Above 1.0963 targets 1.1019. Price hits 1.1019 should then be reversal to target again 1.0908. Points on the way up, 1.0972, 1.0983, 1.0994, 1.1006, 1.1019. As we head into late Asia, points here will change but only by 1 or 2 pips. So 1.1019 target could be 1.1020, or 1.1017.

Brian Twomey, Inside the Currency Market, btwomey.com

Inside the Currency Market: MXN

The Bank of Mexico is similar to the central banks of Columbia and the SNB in Switzerland in that most vital reports, research and information is published exclusively in the native languages although the SNB publishes most vital info in German then French to represent their historic ties dating to Charlemagne in the 9th century. Thankfully I speak, read and write in Spanish to include the various dialects. Prior to Mexican independence from Spain in 1821, Mexico shared relations with Japan at the highest Governmental levels as it related to travel permits. Shoguns met Presidents. The most important relations that solidified the relationship was the Treaty of Amity, Commerce and Navigation in 1888. Japan terms this treaty the first :equal” relationship with a Western nation. Emigration from Japan began in 1897 as 35 Japanese citizens settled in the Mexican state of Chiapas in the south of Mexico although Acapulco later shared almost an equal destination point. For Japanese citizens, it was the first foray into Latin America. Today, 8,100 Japanese citizens reside in Mexico as 679 Japanese companies are incorporated in Mexico and represents 4% of total Foreign Direct Investment in Mexico. The US dollar equivalent is 1, 538.4 million as of January – OCT 2013. Mexico reports bilateral trade valued at USD 17,954 million January = OCT 2013 as Mexican exports to Japan are valued at USD 3, 563 million with exports in Agriculture, Auto parts, machinery, electronics, chemicals and Optical instruments. Relations then blossomed as Cultural agreements were signed in 1954, Trade agreements in 1969, Aviation in 1972, Tourism in 1978 and two most vital agreements in 1996 Avoidance of Double Taxation and Trade Agreement in 2005. Since 2005, Bilateral trade represents USD 22 Billion, Mexican exports USD 4.4 billion and Japanese exports to Mexico USD 17.6 billion. Japanese companies won many energy contracts in Mexico to supply electricity, same scenario in Turkey and other nations. For Japan since 2005, the methodology has been to expand their presence in other nations to assist to secure needed products in Japan’s manufacturing base and secure oil as Japan has the historic polemic as oil must be imported. Treaties on Double Taxation began in the 1950’s for all nations. Double taxation destroys trade if both nations tax each other. It began the slow progression to full blown currency trading seen today. So MXN/JPY historically is a vital currency pair to both japan and Mexico but more so for Mexico since 83% of Mexican exports travel to the United States. MXN/JPY is monitored, tracked and reported heavily by Mexico and its based on its historic ties to Japan. All Info and Data is derived from official Government sources.

MXN/USD. Bottom 16.0836. Range break below 16.0028, Above 16.3261. Overbought Sell point 16.2735 then reverse short to target near bottom at 16.0836. Points on the way up, 16.1870, 16.2097, 16.2157, 16.2218, 16.2476, 16.2735.

Brian Twomey, Inside the Currency Market, btwomey.com