Inside the Currency Market: EUR/USD, EUR/JPY

Slight updates to ensure we’re on track.

EUR/USD. Bottom 10979. Range break above 1.1160, below 1.0800’s. The area at 1.1145 is rough resistance. Overbought Sell point 1.1092. In case slight miss 1.1119 sell. 1.1092 is main sell point.

Strategy. Longs above 1.1036, target 1.1092. Then reverse short to 1.1064 then 1.1036. Price below 1.1034 targets 1.1006 then 1.0979. Points on the way up, 1.1039, 1.1052, 1.1066, 1.1066, 1.1079, 1.1092.

EUR/JPY. Bottom 137.42. Range break above 139.69, below 136.54. Overbought sell point 138.83. In case miss 139.17. Points on the way up, 138.21, 138.36, 138.42, 138.51, 138.66, 138.83.

Strategy long to 138.83. Reverse short to target 138.47 then 138.12. Price below 138.12 is short to target 137.77 then bottom 137.42.

Brian Twomey, Inside the Currency Market, btwomey.com

Inside the Currency Market: MXN

MXN/USD Bottom 16.2424. Range break above 16.4047, below 16.0025. Overbought sell point 16.3787. In case a miss next 16.3925, 16.4064. Note 16.4064 bumps against a range break at 16.4047. The main sell point 16.3787. We’ve hardly had a miss in MXN and every trade so far saw good profits. The slight misses lately could possibly be due to China. If China had even slight interest rate changes along with exchange rate changes then that’s the answer. It doesn’t take very much to skew markets. When one market goes out of sync then all markets are automatically off kilter because the world and markets are so deeply intertwined.

Strategy. Longs above 16.3241, target 16.3787. Then reverse short to 16.3241. Below 16.3240 then target 16.2832 and bottom at 16.2424. Points on the way up, 16.3265, 16.3473, 16.3681, 16.3787.

Continued thank you to my friends at Fxstreet

Brian Twomey, Inside the Currency Market, btwomey.com

Inside the Currency Market: EUR/JPY

EUR/JPY. Bottom 137.31. Range break Above 140.88, below 136.43. Overbought Sell point 138.72. Point at 138.72 is the main sell level. If a miss then 138.89, 139.06. I don’t expect a miss as EUR/JPy is well balanced and aligned properly.

Strategy. Long above 138.03, target 138.72, 138.89. Then reverse short to target 138.03. Below 138.00 then target 137.65 and 137.51. Points on the way up, 138.11, 138.39, 138.55, 138.63, 138.72, 138.89.

Brian Twomey, Inside the Currency Market, btwomey.com

Inside the Currency Market: EUR/USD

MXN Dead stops and reverses at 16.3000 but not the full target at 16.3100. EUR/USD target at 1.1112 Dead stops at my reported 1.1087 and reverses. MXN was telling us what to expect. My reported target on shorts from above easily hit 1.1026. We are now pivoting from 1.1026 so this point was actually perfect. We will suffer another day of slight misses on targets above. Misses will be ever so slight but so so close. Targets below from shorts should be dead on perfect. To most it may not mean anything. I like perfection because I put much into models to achieve perfection.

EUR/USD. Bottom 1.0970. Range break above 1.1151, below 1.0700’s. Strategy. A break above 1.1027 targets 1.1083, 1.1097, 1.1111, 1.1137 Max. Point at 1.1135 – 1.1137 is monster rough resistance. The main target is 1.1083. Below 1.0925 targets 1.1013, 1.001, 1.0997, 1.0970 bottom. We are looking for target and break at 1.0970. The forecast is good till the China open.

Brian Twomey, Inside the Currency Market, btwomey.com

Inside the Currency Market: EUR/USD

Bottom 1.0990. Range break above 1.1181, below 1.0800’s. Long Target today 1.1112. A miss then 1.1125, 1.1139, 1.1153. Roughest resistance 1.1065. Again I have top for today and light years of daylight below. I see what these central bankers are doing so I’m warning be careful. Sometimes these guys are friends, other times they are nasty. Big resistance between 1.1054 – 1,1063. That area may be shortest term target on shorts. A break take shorts to 1.1026.

Strategy. Overbought sell point 1.1112. Points on the way down, 1.1139, 1.1112, 1.1099, 1.1086, 1.1063, 1.1056. Need a break of 1.1054 to stay short then look for targets right about 1.1026.

Brian Twomey, Inside the Currency Market, btwomey.com

Inside the Currency Market: AUD/USD

MXN. Long from 16.2050 dead stopped at 16.3000 and short of my reported 15.3100. I didn’t see the 16.3100 target and that was a good call. I recommended long to 16.2500 — 16.2800 then short. The top was missed by about 200 pips. Reverse Shorts from the highs then dead stopped at 16.2030. The trade paid 1000 pips on longs and 1000 pips on the shorts for total 2000 pips. MXN is always the pair to grab pips if G10 are running funny but MXN is such a terrific forward indicator to lend insights into g10’s. SEK, NOK and ZAR are those same pairs, same indicators but no pair has the full insights as MXN.

EUR/USD shorts from recommended 1.1042 dead stopped at 1.0963. I will take a look at EUR later and see what’s happening. What I knew from AUD and MXN to include EUR from yesterday morning and afternoon is prices are starting from overbought since we are way out on the curve. Yet our pairs are ranging as significant breaks aren’t close in many pairs, AUD is quite different. NZD 2 days ago was also very different. It was in its usual dead center position but range breaks again weren’t even close.

9 hours ago at the dead stop 0.7440 is today 0.7445 then next 0.7473. The AUD bottom 0.7287, target on longs 0.7347. The problem with AUD is it has many ranges within its price structure. For example, to see 0.7287 then AUD must break 2 range points at 0.7309 and 0.7299. To head higher and achieve the 0.7347 target then range points must break at 0.7338, 0.7348, 0.7373 then on to 0.7445.

What decides AUD is the points between 0.7323 – 0.7325. The strategy is long above 0.7325 to target the vicinity at 0.7347. Below 0.7323 targets 0.7309, 0.7299, 0.7287 bottom. Points on the way up, 0.7332, 0.7339, 0.7347. Below 0.7299 comes next 0.7274, and 0.7203. Not only are my points vital but ranges must be monitored closely today.

Next AUD report, around 8:45 EST. If AUD still looks rough then maybe we jump to EUR and EUR pairs.

Brian Twomey, Inside the Currency Market, btwomey.com