Inside the Currency Market: MXN

Note EUR/USD remains above reported 1.1159 for last 7 hours. The same holds for EUR/JPY at 138.31. More at 9:30.Great forward indicator MXN. The payout is about 60 cents per pip or $6 per pip on a full standard lot. The complement is $1 for EUR/USD or $10 per pip on a full lot. The overall trend for MXN is up as has been the case for the past 1 1/2.

MXN/USD. Bottom 16.2160. Range break above 16.3790, below 16.2161. Note 1 pip divergence between range and bottom. Overbought sell point 16.4116.

Strategy. Long to 16.4116 if price remains above 16.2976. A miss at 16.4116 then 16.3818, 16.3967. Then reverse to 16.3546 then 16.2976. Points on the way up, 16.3098, 16.3256, 16.3415, 16.3521,16.3818, 16.3967, 16.4116.

Thank you again as always my friends at FXstreet

Brian Twomey, Inside the Currency Market,

Inside the Currency Market: EUR/USD

EUR/USD turned short at 1.1215, I said 1.1226. AUD/USD turned short at 0.7388, I said 0.7397. Both were main targets. See also both fell short of targets by exactly 11 pips. AUD remained in its usual small ranges as mentioned. EUR/USD bottom was locked tight this morning and why we saw a shallow dip from 1.1215. Now the top is locked tight. We may not see any real movements until China gets going this evening.

EUR/USD. Bottom 1.1131. Current price is currently stuck between 1.1131 – 1.1190. Either 1.1131 breaks to head short or 1.1190 breaks higher to go long. Range break above 1.1354, below 1.0908.

Strategy. If 1.1159 breaks below then Target becomes the bottom at 1.1131 and most probably a break to head lower. The entire curve is on a massive down slope. Assuming 1.1131 holds and we head higher then 1.1159 must break then 1.1190, 1.1195, 1.1217, then target 1.1243, 1.1256, 1.1269. The main target 1.1243. I’m not thrilled with this forecast to be honest. A deviation exists between the top seen and yet the bottom is held by an exchange rate. We want to be careful.
I will report again around the China open.

Brian Twomey, Inside the Currency Market,

Inside the Currency Market: EUR/USD

2 days ago, the topside was blocked, now the downside is locked tight. At least for this day and possibly tomorrow as well.

EUR/USD. Bottom. 1.1099. Overbought main sell point for today 1.1226, a miss then 1.1240, 1.1254, 1.1283. Not expecting 1.1283 nor 1.1240. Range break above 1.1284, below 1.1167 and 1.1141. Note 1.1141 mentioned yesterday as tough resistance above, now its support. I don’t like the target at 1.1226 because the Forward line is found at 1.1289. We want to look for a failure at possibly 1.1196 or 1.1211 then we go short.

Strategy. Main points for today 1.1169, 1.1182, 1.1189, 1.1196, 1.1211, 1.1226. The 50% mark in today’s channel is found between 1.1350 — 1.1387. A failure at 1.1211 would target 1.1183. A failure at 1.1196 targets 1.1175. A failure at 1.1226 targets 1.1199. Shorts need an eventual break of 1.1154 to target 1.1126.

Brian Twomey, Inside the Currency Market,

Inside the Currency Market: AUD/USD

What’s driving the EUR/USD misses in Asia is direct to the Japanese and partly the South Koreans. The Yuan plays a minor role in this story. China’s deal is to adjust the exchange rate without moving their interest rates. Its a lateral shift of the ranges yet its out of sync with the remainder of the world’s orientation to exchange rates. This is exactly what caused our misses in the last few days since the Central banks can’t accurately price their exchange rates. The Australians and New Zealand know exactly what they are doing in the China story and prepared long in advance. New Zealand held their currency in neutrality while Australia held its currency in small ranges with a focus to stop rises. The Europeans are far off their mark and are just plain sleeping. I can’t describe it any other way. The ECB didn’t anticipate the China story, didn’t prepare and are completely indifferent to the levels of their overbought exchange rates. MXN is near perfect, GBP and CHF are dead on targets in the China story but its a factor of their systems inside their nations rather than an anticipation with full preparations. Those exchange rates are protected to stop volatility especially GBP and especially with anticipation of expected interest rate rises. The BOJ and Korea BOK are off yet both are playing with small numbers in relation to USD/Yuan. This view is absolutely fascinating. I speak with deep facts and deeper proven statistics. EUR/USD Price dead stopped perfectly at reported sell points 1.1083 and 1.1092 then rose to 1.1158. The statistical price path was perfect, targets a miss. Quick review.

MXN. I stated long to 16.3789 then sell 16.3789, a miss then 16.3925. Price dead stopped at 16.3895 and reversed to my reported sell point at 16.3265 but broke and continued to 16.2907. The Bottom held at 16.2424.

EUR/JPY. Long from 138.12 to target 138.83 dead stopped at 138.70, 13 pips shy of target. Recommended sell at 138.83 to 138.64 then 138.12 dead stopped at 138.14. Price shot higher again to 138.77 then reversed to 138.54. The bottom at 137.42 held. EUR/JPY has 2 Statistical price paths not one as most other currency pairs. This is good and can be factored easily to catch both moves.

AUD. Bottom 0.7336. Range break above 0.7397, below 0.7347. See small ranges, its how the Aussies protect their exchange rates for many past days. Overbought sell point 0.7397. This is top of the range, next above 0.7427. Points on the way up, 0.7375, 0.7381, 0.7397. A break of 0.7372 below targets 0.7354 then bottom at 0.7336. If we want to leave AUD alone, that’s an option as well. EUR is coming next

Brian Twomey, Inside the Currency Market,