Inside the Currency Market: EUR/USD

FOMC Price Dead Stopped at 1.1134, fell back to 1.1095.

EUR/USD. Bottom 1.1077, up 77 pips since this afternoon. Range break above 1.1068, Below 1.0915. Strategy. Longs above 1.1134, target 1.1195. Target assumes a range break at 1.1068 then points on the way up 1.1141, 1.1154, 1.1168, 1.1181, 1.1195.

Shorts below 1.1132, target 1.1104, then 1.1090, 1.1084 then Bottom 1.1077.

Brian Twomey, Inside the Currency Market, btwomey.com

Inside the Currency Market: EUR/USD

EUR/USD. Bottom 1.1007. Range break above 1.1176, Below 1.0949. Overbought Sell point begins 1.1119, higher begins way overbought. 1.1173 is top at severe overbought. from 1.1119, next 1.1131, 1.1143, 1.1146, 1.1159, 1.1161, 1.1173.

Strategy long above 1.1065, points on the way up, 1.1065, 1.1069, 1.1081, 1.1093, 1.1119 then above numbers if seen. Long reverse is 1.1119, we go higher then sell higher.

Shorts below 1.1062, target 1.1034, Points on the way down, 1.1050, 1.1038, 1.1036, 1.1034, 1.1021, 1.1008 and 1.1007 bottom. If bottom holds, reverse long again. Point 1.1034 must break to target again 1.1062.

Brian Twomey, Inside the Currency Market, btwomey.com

Inside the Currency Market: EUR/CAD

EUR/CAD is, for the most part, not a pair to trade on a violent news announcement because it generally under performs. I chose it because I saw a quick trade Rec on the other site from some 30 trader guy. I don’t see any value in EUR/CAD.

EUR/CAD. Bottom 1.4358. Range break above 1.4579, Below 1.4282. Overbought sell point 1.4504, Overbought sell point range 1.4504 – 1.4524. Extreme located at 1.4645. Not only are ranges wide but current price sits dead center at 1.4470.

Strategy. I am so sorry but I wouldn’t touch this pair until either a sell point at 1.4504 was seen or price breaks 1.4430 then target below becomes 1.4394. I don’t like this pair, I don’t see a trade and I just wouldn’t touch it. I will look again around 1

Brian Twomey, Inside the Currency Market, btwomey.com

Inside the Currency Market: NZD/USD

NZD/USD Bottom 0.6543. Range break above 0.6627, below 0.6523. Overbought sell point 0.6590, serious overbought begins 0.6614- 0.6626.

Strategy. I don;t like longs but here it is. Longs above 0.6578, target 0.6590. Points on the way up, 0.6578, 0.6582, 0.6590.

Shorts below 0.6576, Target 0.6650 then Bottom at 0.6543. Points on the way down, 0.6566, 0.6562, 0.6659, 0.6650.

Brian Twomey Inside the Currency Market, btwomey.com

Inside the Currency Market: EUR/USD

Last reported bottom 1.1022, since broke below to 1.1018. A top is here today, a point that means only a market event sees EUR higher such as Yuan devaluation. Tops and bottoms don’t break once identified, its almost an absolute mathematical certainty. For new readers, everything once learned about a currency, currency pair, currency price and all generalized terms without definition is all wrong. Here what I’m saying, all wrong. The difference between EUR, CHF, AUD, NZD, CAD and every currency under the planet is the name. No difference between any currency under the sun. Its just a name. I firmly understand why so many fail and why so many get it wrong. I also understand how currency analysts get hired but then fail their customers. Imagine putting these retail analysts in front of big money portfolios. What connects this world is a number, that number connects a price and the price connects the market. Weird concept. But I don’t believe this information I speak to has ever been published under the sun. If it has, one must travel back to maybe the 1920’s and before. A basic understanding/ concept derives from Frenkel and levitch in the 1970’s. Currency wars? Anyone that talks this concept is gone in the head and doesn’t deserve to be heard. Only solid mathematical facts spoken here.

Fed Funds now 0.15, that’s halfway to headline 0.25. Point 0.15 closed 4 times since August 11. 1 year ago was 0.08, 0.09. 2 years ago was 0.07 and 0.08. What’s 0.08, that’s halfway from 0.00 — 0.15. Fed Funds is rising. I always stated Fed Funds must continue rising so Yellen can raise. How high, don’t know but higher than 0.15, maybe 0.18ish.

EUR/USD. Bottom 1.0985. Range break above 1.1154, Below 1.0927. Overbought Sell point 1.1097. Strategy. Longs must watch closely 1.1040 – 1.1043. That’s tough area above and a big gap that must be closed. So longs above 1.1043, target 1.1097. Points on the way up, 1.1043, 1.1047, 1.1059, 1.1071. Shorts below 1.1040, target 1.1013. Tough area exists between 1.1013 – 1.1016. That must break to target range bottom at 1.0985. Points on the way down, 1.1028, 1.1016 – 1.1013, 1.0999.

Next report around 1″00, NZD next. Oh see NZD shorts from 0.6592 dead stopped at 0.6576 as mentioned.

Brian Twomey, Inside the Currency Market, btwomey.com

Inside the Currency Market: NZD/USD

Back in action. When we last visited NZD, the way was short and was correct. The range point at 0.6605 held perfectly. The bottom was at 0.6554 and held but it remains a tough area today. NZD is priced for volatility. Wait meaningless term. NZD is priced to move inside fairly wide ranges. But its priced to move lower and they are trying to move it lower. What that defines is Overbought. One retail analyst recommended long NZD at 0.6600 Monday afternoon after 8 Green hourly candles. Since, price hasn’t seen 0.6600 but saw 0.6554 lows we spoke about last post.

NZD/USD. Bottom 0.6560. Bottom moved up 6 pips since last post. Range break above 0.6626 and 0.6645. Why 2 ranges, because they are trying to stop NZD from moving higher so any move up will be a slow painful grind. Range break below 0.6540, note bottom at 0.6560. Overbought sell point 0.6607, that’s 2 pips off the last reported range at 0.6605.

Strategy. Shorts below 0.6592, target 0.6576, 0.6568 then range bottom at 0.6560. Break of any reported range bottom, remain in the trade for at least another 20 pips. 20 pips is almost a perfect number. i will update NZD around 9 am EST to be exact and many more pairs to follow.

I continue in my many thank you’s to friends at Fxstreet.

Brian Twomey, Inside the Currency Market, btwomey.com