Inside the Currency Market: EUR/USD

Last reported bottom 1.1022, since broke below to 1.1018. A top is here today, a point that means only a market event sees EUR higher such as Yuan devaluation. Tops and bottoms don’t break once identified, its almost an absolute mathematical certainty. For new readers, everything once learned about a currency, currency pair, currency price and all generalized terms without definition is all wrong. Here what I’m saying, all wrong. The difference between EUR, CHF, AUD, NZD, CAD and every currency under the planet is the name. No difference between any currency under the sun. Its just a name. I firmly understand why so many fail and why so many get it wrong. I also understand how currency analysts get hired but then fail their customers. Imagine putting these retail analysts in front of big money portfolios. What connects this world is a number, that number connects a price and the price connects the market. Weird concept. But I don’t believe this information I speak to has ever been published under the sun. If it has, one must travel back to maybe the 1920’s and before. A basic understanding/ concept derives from Frenkel and levitch in the 1970’s. Currency wars? Anyone that talks this concept is gone in the head and doesn’t deserve to be heard. Only solid mathematical facts spoken here.

Fed Funds now 0.15, that’s halfway to headline 0.25. Point 0.15 closed 4 times since August 11. 1 year ago was 0.08, 0.09. 2 years ago was 0.07 and 0.08. What’s 0.08, that’s halfway from 0.00 — 0.15. Fed Funds is rising. I always stated Fed Funds must continue rising so Yellen can raise. How high, don’t know but higher than 0.15, maybe 0.18ish.

EUR/USD. Bottom 1.0985. Range break above 1.1154, Below 1.0927. Overbought Sell point 1.1097. Strategy. Longs must watch closely 1.1040 – 1.1043. That’s tough area above and a big gap that must be closed. So longs above 1.1043, target 1.1097. Points on the way up, 1.1043, 1.1047, 1.1059, 1.1071. Shorts below 1.1040, target 1.1013. Tough area exists between 1.1013 – 1.1016. That must break to target range bottom at 1.0985. Points on the way down, 1.1028, 1.1016 – 1.1013, 1.0999.

Next report around 1″00, NZD next. Oh see NZD shorts from 0.6592 dead stopped at 0.6576 as mentioned.

Brian Twomey, Inside the Currency Market,


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