Inside the Currency Market: EUR/JPY

Again, the Statistical Price Path forecast. I said short 132.31, target 137.96 but watch reversal long back to 138.31. Price Dead stopped at 138.15, reversed to 138.31 and broke. Now we are long to Target 138.65 – 138.96, price Dead Stopped at 138.76. I said then reverse short to 138.61, Price Dead Stopped at 138.64. Not exact as I wanted but extremely close to perfection over 7 hours.

EUR/JPY. Bottom. 138.07. Range break above 140.83, Below 136.71. Overbought sell point, 139.41 exact but 139.10 – 139.41. Strategy. Longs above 138.77, Target 139.10 – 139.41. Points on the way up, 138.81, 138.83, 139.00, 139.10, 139.25, 139.41. Reversal short to 138.83.

Shorts below 138.77, target 138.42 and Reversal point. A break targets bottom 138.07.

Brian Twomey, Inside the Currency Market, Inside the Currency Market, btwomey.com

Inside the Currency Market: EUR/USD

Price path since 1:00: Shorts at 1.1203, target 1.1175 reversal point Dead stopped at 1.1183 then reversed to 1.1203 as mentioned. Then long from 1.1204 Dead Stopped at 1.1244 in Between Target at 1.1231 – 1.1256. Price reversed to 1.1231 from 1.1244, I mentioned 1.1230. Not exact as I wanted but close. We hit near perfect Statistical Price paths in last 7 hours. EUR/JPY as well. That’s next post.

EUR/USD. Bottom 1.1189. Range Break above 1.1413, Below 1.0938. The topside is rising, Bottom side hardly moving all week. Overbought Sell point 1.1273, 1.1285, 1.1298. Exact point is 1.1298, may fall short. Strategy: Longs above 1.1246, target 1.1273 – 1.1298. Points on the way up, 1.1249, 1.1251, 1.1273, 1.1285, 1.1298. A target met at 1.1298, reverse short to 1.1272, Target met at 1.1285, reverse short to 1.1265, target met at 1.1273, reverse short to 1.1259.

Shorts below 1.1245, Target 1.1217 then bottom 1.1189 on 1.1217 break. Points on the way down, 1.1237, 1.1231, 1.1220.

Brian Twomey, Inside the Currency Market, btwomey.com

Inside the Currency Market: EUR/JPY

EUR/JPY. Bottom. 137.62. Range break above 140.38, Below 136.27. Overbought sell point 138.96. Strategy. Longs above 138.32, Target 138.96 and 138.65. Point 138.65 added as target that falls short of 138.96. A target met at 138.96 reverses short to target 138.64. A target met at 138.65 reverses short to target 138.48. Points on the way up, 138.36, 138.38, 138.51, 138.58, 138.65, 138.81, 138.96.

Shorts below 138.31, Target 137.96. Point 137.96 is possible reversal long point to target 138.31. Points on the way down, 138.29, 138.13, 138.00, 137.97, 137.79, 137.62.

Brian Twomey Inside the Currency Market, btwomey.com

Inside the Currency Market: EUR/USD

Shorts from 1.1182 this morning saw target achieved on a Dead Stop at 1.1154 then bounce back above long point at 1.1183. Price then Dead Stopped at 1.1220 and short of overall 1.1244 target. I’m slowly working on an automatic system to calculate the pairs so to post in minutes perfect price targets and perfect price paths for multitudes of pairs. As long as I have required information, I have ability to forecast 10, 20, 50 pairs perfectly. The amount of pairs isn’t the question, its speed of calculations because its manual for now and a chore.

EUR/USD. Bottom. 1.1147. Range break above 1.1370, Below 1.1038. Overbought sell point 1.1256. Targets at normal targeted levels have been falling short. We want to look at 1.1231 as the target that falls short of 1.1256. Strategy. Longs above 1.1204, target 1.1231 and 1.1256. A target met at 1.1256 then reverses short to 1.1230. A target met at 1.1231 reverses short to 1.1217. Points on the way up, 1.1207, 1.1209, 1.1220, 1.1231, 1.1243, 1.1256.

Shorts below 1.1203, target 1.1175. The target at 1.1175 is also a possible reversal long point. A break lower then targets bottom at 1.1147. A hold at 1.1175 targets again 1.1203. Points on the way down, 1.1201, 1.1195, 1.1189, 1.1178, 1.1175, 1.1161, 1.1154, 1.1147.

Brian Twomey Inside the Currency Market, btwomey.com

Inside the Currency Market: EUR/USD

EUR/USD. Bottom 1.1126. Range break above 1.1105, Below 1.0964. Overbought Sell Point 1.1244. A top nor bottom is seen today rather the price is trapped between a significant resistance above and significant support below. Same scenario in AUD this morning. And same scenario existed during and after FOMC yesterday. My assumption is the support and resistance is located between bottom at 1.1126 – 1.1182. The Skew slightly favors the downside for today.

Strategy. Shorts below 1.1182, target 1.1154 then Bottom at 1.1126. On the way down, 1.1171, 1.1158, 1.1154, 1.1140, 1.1133, 1.1126. Longs above 1.1184, target 1.1244, Points on the way up, 1.1191, 1.1216, 1.1244. Not much confidence in long trades and zilch confidence in a 1.1244 target but I offer the info anyway.

Brian Twomey, Inside the Currency Market, btwomey.com

Inside the Currency Market: AUD/USD

Our EUR/USD target at 1.1195 hit 1.1171. Targets are perfect. Yesterday’s EUR at 1.1119 was 1.1124, the ECB pulled another slick one on the market But they also gave traders the hesitation we saw. Why 95% failure at currency trading if that number is believable is due to severe lack of understanding. It is severe in its lack of understanding. Plus understanding requires lightening speed because the 5% running prices are expert with true 100% knowledge. 95% can’t compete against this crowd. Its impossible. Not even hedge funds have the capacity to trade these markets and they have computers. Its evident in their list of winners and losers. What good is a computer if one doesn’t have understanding. They come with these math formulas and claim expertise yet they lack understanding. They fail to understand tying the knot on shoes assist in keeping the shoes on the feet. A chart doesn’t have the answers needed to trade these markets unless, unless one has the proper information in front of them. But if one has the info in front of them, why look at a chart. So the need for a CMT designation only allows a deeper understanding of nothing. My views are respectfully written as my interests are as much academic as much as practical. Greeks call this term Praxis, how to meld theory to practice and employed in Public Administration in the early 1900’s. Understanding of currency markets is actually the same understanding hundreds and thousands of years ago. Nothing ever changed. What changed is the generation that grew up in the modern day with a computer and a few dollars and ready to tackle the world. Money first, understanding secondary. If understanding fails then the vast majority of info out there is wrong, melding markets for a trade is wrong. A company that hires these analysts must assume the analysts have understanding so are trusted with the money and clients to write and trade accurately. That’s a dangerous relationship and it doesn’t work so its why the analysts are allowed to roam and write freely all their wrong trades, false info, broad statements that can’t be verified. Here’s 2 from My Little Boy Weller. A chart of Oil and CAD that says the correlation is breaking down. Another statement that says Australia and Copper correlations are breaking down. No explanation, no numbers, no facts to back the claims. How about Monday afternoon Long NZD at 0.6600. No explanation just long NZD at 0.6600. This trade was in the water all week and as much as 50 pips. Interesting though is the companies that stand behind these analysts types. That’s the danger. The other side of the coin is a guy named John kicklighter at FXCM. This guy is smart, knows his stuff and is consistently smart over many years.

Reading the Fed minutes reveals the same old story I’ve mentioned for eons. The Fed is scared witless to raise. If Inflation goes out of control under their massive balance sheet then they risk a disaster that can’t be repaired, German 1930 Hyperinflation will hit us faster than anyone would know. The difference in their story this time is they have excuses upon excuses why not to raise, China, Greece, the Dollar, exports. Whatever. The Devil killed his grandmother when she ran out of excuses.

AUD/USD/ Bottom. 0.7284. Range break above 0.7346, 0.7395. Below 0.7297, 0.7272, 0.7248. Overbought sell point 0.7344. Strategy shorts below 0.7321, target 0.7303 then bottom at 0.7285. This trade will update around 9 am EST