Inside the Currency Market: EUR/CAD

Last Trade this morning. Short 1.4954, Bottom broke at 1.4878 and hit 1.4745 lows.

EUR/CAD. Bottom. 1.4717. Range break above 1.4910, Below 1.4672.Overbought sell point 1.4867, 1.4904, 1.4941. Strategy. Longs above 1.4792, Target 1.4867. Then reverse back to 1.4829. Points on the way up, 1.4798, 1.4832, 1.4839, 1.4867, 1.4904, 1.4941.

Shorts below 1.4791, Target 1.4754. Watch reverse long to 1.4791. Break then heads lower. Points on the way down, 1.4778, 1.4774, 1.4757, 1.4754, 1.4735, 1.4717 Bottom.

More trades posted over weekend.

Brian Twomey Inside the Currency Market, btwomey.com

Inside the Currency Market: EUR/USD

Last trade this morning, short 1.1268 saw lows 1.1156 and break of Bottom 1.1211. What is 1.1156, Bottom range point 1.1155. Many apologies to not report 1.1155. Many details go into these forecasts and its my rush to hurry to get trades out that I may miss a detail.

Note how fast EUR resumed its down trend from high 1.1700’s. Its what the ECB wants, a lower exchange rate. This was part of the Strategy last September 2014 when they adopted negative Deposit rates. Lower exchange and interest rates leads to higher GDP, Inflation over time. Yet allows exports to fly out of Europe and a lower exchange rate for the first time in Euro history becomes a good for the Eurozone. This is the thinking by the ECB. Plus the ECB continues to amass a surplus of capital as they continue QE to buy bonds. CPI isn’t a problem now although the goal is to slate CPI higher over time. CPI is the protection to allow surplus funds to accumulate, A falling CPI with high surpluses risks deflation in line with Germany after WW 1. Think about life then when it took a wheelbarrow full of German Marks just to buy a stick of butter. The surplus funds become a hindrance in light of falling prices. See how this works. CPI is the ECB protection and must come higher to protect the funds. Further central banks still remember the 1970’s when CPI was 20%.

EUR/USD. Larger Range is found 572 pips, 636 and 643 pips currently. These numbers mean EUR/USD 1.1168 – 1.1622 and 1.1113 – 1.1559. Tons of resistance points exist in the 1.1300’s starting at 1.1336, 1.1338 and travels to 1.1392 at the highs. Below 1.1112 then ranges become 1.1112 – 1.0540, 1.1112 – 1.0476 and 1.1112 – 1.0547. The direction is lower and a sell rallies approach from current time to almost eternity especially if the ECB stumbles along the way as is always the case for central bankers. Lofty goals and policy prescriptions / proscriptions by central banks never come to fruition. Don’t look for an interest rate rise anytime soon and as well the ECB says CPI won’t meet target until middle 2016.

EUR/USD. Bottom 1.1112. Range break above 1.1258, Below 1.1078. Overbought sell point, 1.1226 – 1.1254. Strategy. Longs above 1.1169, Target 1.1226. Then reverse short to 1.1254. Points on the way up, 1.1173, 1.1199, 1.1226, 1.1282.

Shorts below 1.1167, Target 1.1140. Watch for reversal long here to 1.1167. A break of 1.1140, then lower we go. Points on the way down, 1.1155, 1.1142, 1.1140, 1.1126, 1.1112 Bottom.

Brian Twomey Inside the Currency Market, btwomey.com

Inside the Currency Market: EUR/CAD

Last evening trade. Long from 1.4814 saw Dead Stop 1.4962, Target 1.4894, + 70 pips further on long trade and 148 pips on the long trade total. Only 2nd time in 150 trades a big Target miss. This trade was scaled at 80/ 40 for 120 pip gain, but we saw 68 vs 34 and actual 148 / 74. Short reverse saw 1.4888 not 1.4854 as anticipated. EUR/CAD did a top of the serious overbought channel deal on us. And it took 8 hours to get this trade done overnight. 2 rare events, top of the channel and length of time. Normally our profits are seen and done in a few hours Maximum.

EUR/CAD. Bottom. 1.4878. Range break above 1.5039, Below 1.4867. Overbought sell point, 1.5035 bumps against range point. Strategy. Longs above 1.4954, Target 1.5035. If target, reverse short to 1.4956 then 1.4947, 1.4937. Points on the way up,1.4962, 1.4979, 1.4997, 1.5016, 1.5035.

Shorts below 1.4953, Target 1.4916, Points on the way down, 1.4947, 1.4937, 1.4928, 1.4920, 1.4915, 1.4896, 1.4878 Bottom.

Brian Twomey Inside the Currency Market, btwomey.com

Inside the Currency Market: EUR/USD

Review last evening trade. Long from 1.1243 Target 1.1303 saw 1.1308, +65 pips. Then reverse short to mentioned 1.1271 hit perfect + 37 pips, total + 102. We’re doing about average 80 pips per pair, per trade, each day based on longs and shorts. Some days a bit more other days slightly less but 80 so far is about correct. We’ve had 2 big target misses for 70 pips but those misses were in favor of the trade direction so maybe a miss but the miss added to the profitable trade. 80 pips per day times 150 trades posted, 12,0000 pips. Is this right, I don’t know but we suffer no losses and all trades earned profits in a matter of hours. Let’s say 50 pips per trade, that’s 7500 pips earned on 150 trades. And in 1 month. Whatever we are in good shape and I’m sure we beat everybody. Hopefully next week I’m fully automated on this system so I can post 20, 50 pairs and hit perfect targets for even greater profits. Its not the number of pairs, its the data and calculation cause its all manual. Automation allows multiple pairs with greater speed in calculations and posts. Targets are the easy part to this scenario.

EUR/USD. Bottom. 1.1211. Range break above 1.1332, Below 1.1202. Overbought sell point, 1.1329, 1.1357. Strategy. Longs above 1.1268, Target 1.1329. Then reverse short to target 1.1298 – 1.1291. Points on the way up, 1.1273, 1.1300, 1.1314, 1.1329, 1.1357.

Shorts below 1.1267, Target 1.1239, Watch here for reverse to 1.1267. Points on the way down, 1.1262, 1.1255, 1.1242, 1.1226, then Bottom 1.1211.

As always thank you friends at Fxstreet, Fxtraderhub

Brian Twomey Inside the Currency Market, btwomey.com