Inside the Currency Market: USD/CAD

USD/CAD volatility is derived from its wide wide ranges. CAD has plenty of room to roam. A few facts to understand. Daily ranges are valued at current 33 pips, that gives us intervals valued at 18 pips. This is terrific volatility. USD/CAD has ability to fly higher. Fly higher means we could see 1.4000’s in time especially if Big Sis Yellen decides to raise Fed Funds. But fly higher is exactly what the BOC wants to see as it views a higher USD/CAD as a stimulant to Canada’s economy and exports. From the BOC side, CAD is 0.7562, its historic average is right at about 0.9900 so its 2500 pips off its historic long term average. Its not a terrible situation for Canada and the BOC considering the 1990’s saw USD/CAD at 1.5500’s. USD/CAD can easily handle higher levels without causing economic disaster.

The direction for USD/CAD is higher especially as supports are many and strong and begin from 1.2000’s and upward to 1.3000’s. The strongest and immediate supports below exist at 1.2540 and 1.2667, both are rock solid. Above and strongest resistance begins at 1.3803 and 1.3962, those points are solid, for now. So overall range and note the wide distance 1.2667 – 1.3803, that’s 1136 pips.

USD/CAD. Bottoms, 1.3091, 1.3108, 1.3147. Bottoms are range points, actual bottom 1.3157. We missed the downside. Range above 1.3299, 1.3339. Most important points above 1.3223 and 1.3251. Strategy. Longs above 1.3223, target 1.3275, 1.3290, 1.3301. Top of the channel 1.3328. Caveat to channel top, this morning channel top was hit at 1.3268 exactly and drifted to current bottom at 1.3116. The strategy is long USD/CAD.

We are currently 1 hour from China opening. To be more perfect in our trades, I will post again around 10:00 p.m. EST.

Inside the Currency Market: EUR/CAD

EUR/CAD has been a volatile pair, a good mover and far better than EUR/JPY so we continue with EUR/CAD. Next is USD/CAD and anything with USD in the first position. The other half of the universe is now conquered. We can now hit Targets on USD/ Botswana if we wish.

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EUR/CAD. Bottom. 1.4746. Range break above 1.4975, below 1.4668. Overbought sell point 1.4896 — 1.4933. Strategy. Longs above 1.4821, Target 1.4896. Then reverse short to 1.4858 then 1.4821. Points on the way up, 1.4827, 1.4843, 1.4859, 1.4877, 1.4887, 1.4896.

Shorts below 1.4821, target 1.4783. Watch for reversal here to 1.4821. A break of 1.4783 means lower. Points on the way down, 1.4811, 1.4802, 1.4794, 1.4786, 1.4766, 1.4746.

Brian Twomey, Inside the Currency Market, btwomey.com

Inside the Currency Market: EUR/USD

This morning EUR/USD Trade. Long 1.1215 failed at 1.1243 and before 1.1245, short of 1.1271 Target. Short then broke 1.1214, to Target 1.1186, price hit 1.1180. Good enough for almost what 90 pips on long then shorts and a late reported day,

EUR/CAD next and USD/CAD.

EUR/USD. Bottom. 1.1151. Range break above 1.1324, 1.1376. Below 1.1092. Overbought sell point 1.1264, 1.1278. Strategy. Long above 1.1208, Target 1.1264. Then reverse short to 1.1236 then break 1.1208. Points on the way up, 1.1212, 1.1224, 1.1237, 1.1264.

Shorts below 1.1207, Target 1.1179, Watch reversal long here to 1.1208. Points on the way down, 1.1207, 1.1194, 1.1187, 1.1181, 1.1166, 1.1151 Bottom.

Continued thank you’s to friends at Fxstreet.

Brian Twomey, Inside the Currency Market, btwomey.com

Inside the Currency Market: EUR/USD

Last trades. EUR/USD Dead Stop and Reverse 1.1261, I said 1.1271. Then 1.1245 broke and 1.1217 to see lows 1.1196. GBP/USD, Dead Stop 1.5436, I mentioned 1.54 something to 1.5458. Then price reversed to 1.5395, I mentioned 1.5385 target. EUR/CAD Dead Stop 1.4906, my Target 1.4904. Then reversed to 1.4825, my Target 1.4829. Near perfect. Reason for the DXY post was to run through USD pairs especially CAD because its so volatile and we need to catch those moves. I thoroughly understand what USD is all about, what triggers movements, how far, how fast, direction, points to trade, take profits. The DXY is the DXY and has its purpose but its not CAD, JPY, CHF. Anything with USD as first position will be reported to trade.

Not much changed in EUR/USD and its why this report is so late this morning. The ECB was undecided on next moves and its still that way. We won’t know more in direction terms until this afternoon. The direction overall is down, that we know. But how much, how far and how fast is learned by numbers. But We generally know over the weekend but the necessary data wasn’t released.

EUR/USD. Bottom. 1.1158. Range break above, 1.1331, 1.1338. Below 1.1099, 1.1047. Overbought sell point 1.1272. Then reverse short to 1.1243 and lower to break 1.1215. Points on the way up, 1.1219, 1.1231, 1.1243, 1.1257, 1.1272.

Break of 1.1214, Targets 1.1186.

Brian Twomey, Inside the Currency Market, btwomey.com

9:00 and the ECB doesn’t release data? Note how EUR wasn’t updated over the weekend, its because they didn’t release the necessary data. Its hit or miss for ECB in weekend releases now. Never was the case before. Exchange rate transparency is slowly leaving us by all central banks. Canada just joined the bunch as latest victim in non transparency. Central banks despise exchange rate movements but they won’t come to the realization they are the cause and effect. Yet they still try to have their cake and.. I post when I obtain data, if I missed this morning’s move then we shoot for this afternoon.