Inside the Currency Market: EUR/USD

Last trade, Longs above 1.1514, Dead Stopped 1.1540, Target 1.1572 saw 1.1547 point reverse. Shorts then reversed to reported 1.1522 then break 1.1514. Shorts from 1.1514 saw 1.1451 lows and 5 pip break of reported Bottom at 1.1456. Bottom held all night until 5 pip break. Range held ALL night as mentioned AT 1.1447. Shorts profited on slight miss from last evening. Many many pips are earned here daily, how many I don’t count.

On site is Bio for interested as well as an article in development on market prices.

EUR/USD. Bottom 1.1344. Range break above 1.1493, Below 1.1309. Overbought sell point 1.1460, 1.1488, 1.1517. Strategy. Longs above 1.1402, Target 1.1460 then short reverse to 1.1431, 1.1417, 1.1402. Points on the way up, 1.1408, 1.1420, 1.1433, 1.1477,1.1460, 1.1517.

Shorts below 1.1401, Target 1.1372, watch for reversal long to 1.1401. Points on the way down, 1.1388, 1.1382, 1.1376, 1.1360, 1.1344 Bottom.

Brian Twomey Inside the Currency Market, btwomey.com

Market Drivers: Brian Twomey

Welles Wilder wrote the Delta Principle, the special number to determine market turning points. What’s a special number in my educated model estimation? The interest rate. It drives markets since the start of time, all markets and all financial instruments from stocks to options to currencies. What creates market prices and trading opportunities is the disparity in interest rates. China is different than the US, GBP is different from EURO, Euro different from Hungary. So those markets will move based on the disparity in interest rates. But it is the interest rate that provides the link to the world and the link to all market prices. Only in the modern day has anyone realized market linkages but market linkages has never been defined. China and Hong Kong joined world markets because they adopted an interest rate to provide a market for their financial products. A Yuan devaluation had to accompany an interest rate drop in order for China to stay market oriented in relation to the remainder of the world. Volatility occurred because other nations had to adopt their own interest rates to stay connected not only to China and Hong Kong but the remainder of the world. A change in China interest rates means a change in other nations interest rates. I’m convinced either a single or double number exists that defines every market on the planet and I believe those numbers are found between the US and Euro because those pairs are not only most widely traded but the vast majority of nations use either the Euro or USD in daily economic life. All other nations then follow the single and double number of the Euro and USD. A drop in one currency pair means a rise or fall in another currency pair. A rise or fall in stock markets means a rise or fall in all other stock markets. Its not a follow the leader scenario but its follow the leader purposefully so other nations maintain their economic viability in relation to other nations of the world.

What an interest rate does for markets is allow a market and price movements to occur purposefully and created purposefully. Why? Because ranges are built into the system of prices. Its impossible to have zero ranges in prices so prices are forced to move. Ranges may expand and contract but they could never go to zero. EUR/USD moved hundreds of pips this week because of the disparity in interest rates by itself and among its counterpart nations. Interest rates rise and fall based on market conditions. Yet its a perfect system that operates within and among nations so therefore is a perfect market price seen and known. Its where I believe I will find the single or double number that drives overall markets and prices. Ask why all stock markets in unison dropped the last few days, why EUR and GBP rose, why JPY dropped. How does markets know to sell or buy, long or short. How does prices Dead Stop and reverse at targeted points. Its found in Interest rates and the single or double number. More coming here

Inside the Currency Market: EUR/USD

Last trade was a rare miss, the top of the channel was located at 1.1586, price hit 1,1556. I;m fully operational again sometime tomorrow.

EUR/USD. Bottom. 1.1456. Range break above 1.1579, Below 1.1447. Overbought sell point 1.1572 — 1.1630, channel top 1.1689. Normal sell point 1.1572, any price above begins overbought and holds to about 7:30 EST. Strategy. Longs above 1.1514, Target 1.1572 – 1.1630. Target net at 1.1630 then short back to 1.1572, then 1.1543, 1.1536, 1.1530, 1.1522 then 1.1514. Points on the way up, 1.1520, 1.1532, 1.1547, 1.1559, 1.1572, 1.1630.

Shorts below 1.1513, Target 1.1484. Watch for reversal long point here to 1.1513. Points on the wau down, 1.1505, 1.1507, 1.1501, 1.1494, 1.1488, 1.1480, 1.1469 Then Bottom 1.1456.

Brian Twomey Inside the Currency Market, btwomey.com

Inside the Currrency Market: EUR/USD

EUR 1.1506 shorts saw bottom broke from 1.1448 to 1.1441, 7 pips.

EUR/USD Bottom. 1.1355. Range break above 1.1478, Below 1.1346. Overbought sell point 1,1471, 1.1484. Strategy. Longs above 1.1413, Target 1.1471-1.1484. Reverse short to target 1.1448. Points on the way up, 1.1419, 1.1432, 1.1439, 1.1446, 1.1458, 1.1471.

Shorts below 1.1412, Target 1.1383, look for reversal to 1.1413 and higher. Points on the way down, 1.1406, 1.1400,1.1397,1.1393, 1.1383, 1.1369, 1.1355 Bottom.

Brian Twomey Inside the Currency Market, btwomey.com

Inside the Currency Market: EUR/USD

Lunch meeting this afternoon, back by 1? 2ish. In 1929, 8 stock markets around the world crashed before the United States markets. Does a problem exists in markets, nope. How do we know, OIS Spreads per currency listed here for last 2 days, EUR = 0.061 and 0.062. GBP = 0.0184 and 0.0205, USD = 0.0170, CHF = 0.0360, 0.0400, JPY = 0.0418, 0.0403, 0.0432. EUR/USD 2 year Swap Rates = 0.86. Markets are perfectly fine. If markets had serious problems, OIS Spreads would skyrocket higher as happened in 2008 – 2009. Prices in currencies risks to determine problems didn’t move so moves were very normal.

Yesterday was near perfect price paths for multiple longs, shorts. Short 1.1577, saw 1.1527, I said 1.1532. Then long to 1.1577, saw Dead Stop 1.1574.

EUR/USD. Bottom. 1.1448. Range Break above 1.1664, Below 1.1348. Overbought Sell Point 1.1556 – 1.1583, extreme 1.1610. Strategy. Longs above 1.1507, target 1.1556, 1.1583. Then reverse short to 1,1545, 1.1531. Points on the way up, 1.1509, 1.1523, 1.1532, 1.1556.
Shorts below 1.1506, Target 1.1477, Watch for reversal long here back to 1.1506 and higher. Points on the way down, 1.1496, 1.1490, 1.1485, 1.1477, 1.1462 then Bottom 1.1448.

Brian Twomey Inside the Currency Market, btwomey.com

Inside the Currency Market: AUD/USD

When last reported AUD, short at 0.7340 and bottom broke.

AUD/USD. Bottom. 0.7155. Range break above 0.7240, Below 0.7143. Overbought Sell point 0.7203. Strategy, Longs above 0.7192, Target 0.7203 then reverse short to 0.7198. Points on the way up, 0.7196, 0.7203.
Shorts below 0.7192, Target 0.7173, look for reverse long to 0.7192. Points on the way down, 0.7179, 0.7175, 0.7165, bottom 0.7155. Bottom breaks stay short to range point 0.7143.

Brian Twomey Inside the Currency Market, btwomey.com

Inside the Currency Market: EUR/USD

Quick review. Sell 1.1567, Dead Stopped 1.1519, reversed to 1.1567. Long 1.1567 Dead Stopped at Target 1.1619 then reversed to 1.1549 and in between reported 1.1552 – 1.1540.

EUR/USD. Bottom 1.1518. Range break above 1.1722, Below 1.1432. Overbought sell point 1.1628, 1.1655, 1.1683. Strategy. Longs above 1.1577, Target 1.1628 – 1.1655. Reverse short at Target to next target 1.1602, 1.1616. Points on the way up, 1.1581, 1.1593, 1.1605, 1.1628,1.1655.

Shorts below 1.1577, Target 1.1547, 1.1532. Look for reverse long at 1.1547 to target and break 1.1577. Points on the way down, 1.1573, 1.1561, 1.1549, 1.1532, 1.1518.

Brian Twomey Inside the Currency Market, btwomey.com

Inside the Currency Market: EUR/USD

The USD side dictates all EUR moves, no help whatsoever from the ECB although I noticed last week ranges were opening wider. The full top was located at 1.1759, price hit 1.1710. In terms of location, a move of this caliber exceeded the most volatile of a Non Farm Payroll day. I’ve seen this happen one time before in the last Oh many many months since I’ve been working with this current model. Its a rare, rare event in currency trading prices that is just not seen. 1.1394 was the big number from Sunday’s post and the 1.1307 Bottom that saw Euro make this move. Further 1.1428 and 1.1487 also assisted as well as the 1.1508 range top. I missed Sunday night’s post and I didn’t like the location of the current Eur price at the time of last post. A full bio is on site for interested and its my assumption why I see Google searches.

EUR/USD. Bottom. 1.1509. Range break above 1.1713, Below 1.1423. Further out 1.1223 and 1.1220 will be mentioned on a correction.

Strategy. Longs above 1.1568, target 1.1619 – 1.1646, 1.1674. Reverse short in the target area. Points on the way up, 1.1571, 1.1583, 1596, 1.1619. Shorts below 1.1567, target 1.1538, Look for possible reversal long here. Points on the way down, 1.1564, 1.1552, 1.1540, 1.1538, 1.1523, 1.1509 Bottom. A Bottom ever breaks stay in the trade, any trade, any Bottom.

Brian Twomey Inside the Currency Market, btwomey.com

Inside the Currency Market: Brian Twomey BIO

Due to many Google searches from tons of new readers, traders and followers, a quick Bio.

Upon completion of my 2nd Graduate degree in 1996, I embarked on a 16 year career as a college professor of Political Science and specialized predominately in the study of the American Congress and other parliaments around the world. International relations to some degree is a complementary topic to Congresssional roles, policies and functions so by osmosis I maintained interests on the international side and taught all the requisite classes.

In 2004, I began trading currencies. It was a natural progression and complement to congressional studies and international relations. Like the rest that jumps into an inane topic, I didn’t have a clue what exchange rates were all about. In the beginning, I lost money yet only a few thousand. Then I realized never again would I allow exchange rates to take my money. So for the past 11 years, I traded, studied and researched in minute detail tons and tons of topics related to currencies, exchange rates and trading. Every year I grew in profits, knowledge, understanding, skills and abilities. I learned by Google searches and ability to ask a long time friend at Thomson Reuters questions from time to time. I find the 11 year point interesting as I became a member of my church then. So I adopted my friend’s term Forex Gods as both are related. I credit the Gods in heaven for what I have and accomplishments today.

2008 – 2012. I began writing articles for Stocks and Commodities magazine then later investopedia and the European Banking Federation. The three articles with the most views was the interview with Welles Wilder, currency Triangulations and profile of John Mc Ginley. In 2010, I wrote Inside the Currency Market. The book was a total failure but not for the few thousand bankers, academics and traders that took the time to read it and learn since nothing changed in currency markets since 2010 and nothing will change in the future. The book appears in bibliographic academic journals and tons of libraries around the world.

2012. When Wiley / Bloomberg Press failed to promote Inside the Currency Market as they’ve done with many others, I joined FXstreet. I thought this move was most ignorant because I’m not a public person and never thought of myself as a public person. But then I was involved with many traders and agreed to a trading challenge. I hit 25 perfect targets trading live over 36 days for 2500 + pips. Here trades http://www.forexstreet.net/profiles/blogs/20-trade-recommendations-20-reasons-to-visit-forexstreet-net-come.
Trades were all accomplished with mathematics so I wrote Using Z Scores to Trade Foreign Exchange. Another flop but still available on Amazon. But that was then. I stayed out anyway and still published articles, trades, assisted anyone that wrote and always still maintained profits, growth and learning as years progressed. After three years, my hope Is I’m well liked, respected and appreciated by the many I assisted. A bad apple and critic will always exist, its natural. Jesus was criticized when he fed the 5,000.
And I did it all for nothing as I haven’t earned one penny from anybody in the three years out.

2014. Interviews with Brother Dale in the Live Analysis Room at Fxstreet.com. Big calls made then. Europe heading for Dark Day, Volatility will explode and many other calls. I see the big stuff coming because I do my work and research. Articles published in FX Trader Magazine and mentioned in Thomson Reuters commentaries 22 times. Who knew singing up for Fxstreet would lead to all this.

Current. What’s ahead. I don’t know truthfully. Brother Dale is trying to reschedule an interview. Fxstreet closed so now I maintain this old blog with hope to turn it into a small website and maybe with an ad or two to pay for the time I devote to it. I submitted a 20 page academic paper to a Double Blind review journal as I showed using deep mathematical explanations and 5500 exchange rates how cross pairs switch allegiance from market period to market period. Its the first of its type ever in an academic journal. If accepted, I will take on other projects for journal publications. Many topics exist yet to be explored and other topics that haven’t been fully developed. For example, I’m working on the relationships to Discounts and premiums both present and forward in currency pairs. Correlations and the Correlation trade is a huge topic of interest that hasn’t been fully explored. To understand Correlations, one must go back to Fisher at the turn of the century or one fights a losing battle to understand, apply and trade by Correlations.

So for now I move along. If this site makes it, fine. If it doesn’t, then I’m gone but always to continue trading, growing and learning.

Brian Twomey, Inside the Currency Market

Inside the Currency Market: AUD/USD

AUD/USD. Points, Rates are close but not perfectly exact yet only very slight changes are expected since the Aussies are holding AUD very tight.

AUD/USD. Bottom 0.7305. Range break above 0.7366, Below 0.7317. Overbought sell point 0.7364. Strategy. Longs above 0.7342, target 0.7364. Points on the way up, 0.0.7349, 0.7356, 0.7364. Reverse short at 0.7364 to 0.7353 then 0.7342.

Shorts below 0.7341, target 0.7323 then 0.7305. Watch 0.7323 as possible reversal point as well as 0.7317 range point. prices and points could be slightly off. Next report China open.

Brian Twomey Inside the Currency Market, btwomey.com

Inside the Currency Market: USD Index, Monetary Policy

First came the interest rate whose definition, meaning and purpose hasn’t changed since the start of time. Interest and rate equates to how much lent and when to repay. A broad term interest and rate so names were given such as Fed Funds, Corra ( Canada), Euribor ( Europe), Libor ( London), BI ( Indonesia), Call Rates ( Japan). The difference between each nation’s interest rates are nothing, zero difference. What’s different is each nation has a specific purpose and function to apply interest rates so classifications were invented such as lend and borrow and time periods. A step system materialized by osmosis in leading and lagging interest rates. Jakarta’s BI ( Bank Indonesia ) rate is much more important than the jakarta interbank rate. So now is built a monetary policy. We could say monetary policy is stability, broad term. Let’s try Indonesia, stability of the Rupiah, Canada Inflation within range, Europe price stability. All monetary policies have the same purpose despite the various names, to fight Inflation. The commonalities among all nations is Currency price, Inflation and interest rate. Meld the 3 combinations together and we have economic powerhouses in rising currency prices, interest rates, GDP and low inflation. Get it wrong and disaster reigns in low interest rates, low currency prices, Inflation and low GDP. What upended the system of success since 2008 was money supplies because it disrupted the winning economic balances.

The Federal Reserve tracks and reports tons of interest rates but only a few categories apply to understand the USD currency but the categories are vital. The 6 Month Treasury Yield tracks perfectly the 1 Month Eurodollar rate. Eurodollars are USD deposits anywhere overseas. The 1 Month Commercial Paper Financial rate tracks perfectly the overnight Repo Rate. Libor is a vital component in USD prices because Eurodollars settle to Libor yet daily Libor in itself is most important. The 2 year Treasury Yield by itself is worthless.

USD Index. Current price 94.84. Bottom. 94.36. Most important do or die, Long Short Inflection points: 94.90, 94.92, 94.99, 95.04, 95.16, 95.40, 95.63, 96.10.

Range Points above: 95.65, 96.26, 96.48, 99.14. Below Range points: 94.01, 93.43, 93.21, 91.19, 90.71. Current Range 94.01 – 95.65. Note Mid point Range 94.83, price closed and sits 1 pip above at 94.84.

Strategy. Shorts must break 94.83 to head lower to target 94.59, 94.47 and current Bottom at 94.36. Longs must remain above 94.83 to target 94.90 and 94.92 and higher based on inflection points. Higher prices must break 95.65, lower must break 94.01.

Brian Twomey, Inside the Currency Market, btwomey.com

Inside the Currency Market: EUR/USD

Two points vital to EUR/USD above that will expand and contract as the week rolls along and dictate the week’s prices, 1.1421 and 1.1482. The current range is found between 1.1334 – 1.1552. In the shortest term, 1.1369 and 1.1334 must break lower to see lower prices while 1.1394 must break higher yet the current bottom is located at exactly 1.1307. The points responsible for last week’s liftoff was found shortest term at 1.1017 and 1.0910. Longer term liftoff points occurred at 1.0751 and 1.0683. To offer context to 1.1552 range top, current targets exist at 1.1415 and 1.1524 as well as a range break at 1.1508. Why prices rose Friday afternoon was the system remained unchanged from Friday morning so both the ECB and the Fed allowed EUR to rise 23 pips further from 1.1365 to 1.1388. Fed Funds still holds at 0.15 and closed at 0.15 in 7 of the last 8 trading sessions. The message in my estimation is the market hasn’t backed off from a Rate hike, its only a question of when and not if. So the present EUR rise should be viewed as a corrective rally. Economically, USD sees PMI’s and Consumer Confidence Tuesday and GDP and PCE Thursday, the most important is the GDP and PCE determinations. GDP as a release is way oversold as the 1 and 5 year averages are found at 2.19 and 2.00 while the 10 year average is found at 2.47. GDP 1.9 is expected, last was 2.00.

EUR/USD. Range 1.1369 – 1.1394. Above 1.1394, targets 1.1415, below 1.1369 targets 1.1336, 1.1334 then bottom 1.1307.

Bottom. 1.1307. Range break above 1.1508, Below 1.1334 and 1.1222. Overbought sell point 1.1415, 1.1442, 1.1469. Strategy. Longs not recommended due because current price is middle range as 35 pips exists to above target while 11 and 15 pips exists from sell points at 1.1369 and 1.1365.

Shorts below 1.1369 and 1.1365, target 1.1350, 1.1338, 1.1336, 1.1321 and Bottom at 1.1307. If a reversal higher will be seen at 1.1350 and 1.1338.

Next report at China open, more pairs coming. many, many thank you’s for all views and as always many thank you’s to friends at Fxstreet. My main trading system will be fully operational again by Wednesday so many more pairs to post then.

Brian Twomey, Inside the Currency Market, btwomey.com

Inside the Currency Market: EUR/JPY

Apologies for late. Hope a trade still exists. Review, Longs above 138.77, targets fell far short but Dead Stopped at 138.84 then recommended short to 138.83 Dead Stopped at 138.86, off 3 pips. Further shorts saw my recommended Vital points at 138.63 and 138.17. Bottom at 138.07 held. Not a ton of thrills in this trade last evening but money was made and we don’t ever lose. I fully understand what they are doing now in terms of EUR/JPY targets and understand fully misses. This will be tightened for the future.

EUR/JPY. Bottom 137..70. Range break above 140.30, Below 136.50. Overbought sell point 138.73, range 138.59 – 138.73. EUR/JPY loves to fall short of targets lately so ranges rather than exact point. Strategy. Longs above 138.40, Target 138.59 – 138.73, Exact number 138.73. Points on the way up, 138.44, 138.51, 138.59, 138.66, 138.73. Target met at 138.73 then shorts to target 138.56, target met at 138.59 then shorts to target 138.49.

Shorts below 138.39, target 138.04, Look for reversal here to target again 138.39 and remain long above 138.40. 138.30 must break higher to target 138.39. Points on the way down, 138.30, 138.21, 138.14, 138.07, 138.04, 137.87, Bottom 137.70.

Tak, and Multumesc mult

Brian Twomey, Inside the Currency Market, btwomey.com

Inside the Currency Market: EUR/USD

Price Path Review. Long 1.1246, Target 1.1298 Dead Stopped 1.1294. Recommended short to 1.1272 Dead Stopped at 1.1271, off 1 pip. Reported Bottom 1.1189 held. Shorts below 1.1245 was never a factor yesterday and overnight so multiple long/ shorts was also not a factor as was the case in past days. The price Paths and recommended multiple Longs and shorts have been near perfect over days now in many pairs. This only improves to achieve perfection.

EUR/USD. Bottom 1.1224, up 35 pips since yesterday. Range break above 1.1436 and rising ranges, Below 1.1126. Strategy. Longs above 1.1281. target 1.1332. We look between 1.1308 – 1.1332 if Target falls short. Points on the way up, 1.1284, 1.1295, 1.1308, 1.1306, 1.1320, 1.1332. Target met at 1.1332, shorts to Target 1.1306, Target met at 1.1294, short target to 1.1288, Target met at 1.1308 th4n short target 1.1294.

Shorts below 1.1280, target 1.1252. Look for long reversal at 1.1252 to 1.1280. Points on the way down, 1.1266, 1.1259, 1.1252, 1.1250, 1.1237, 1.1224 Bottom.

EUR/JPY Next

Brian Twomey, Inside the Currency Market, btwomey.com

Inside the Currency Market: EUR/JPY

Again, the Statistical Price Path forecast. I said short 132.31, target 137.96 but watch reversal long back to 138.31. Price Dead stopped at 138.15, reversed to 138.31 and broke. Now we are long to Target 138.65 – 138.96, price Dead Stopped at 138.76. I said then reverse short to 138.61, Price Dead Stopped at 138.64. Not exact as I wanted but extremely close to perfection over 7 hours.

EUR/JPY. Bottom. 138.07. Range break above 140.83, Below 136.71. Overbought sell point, 139.41 exact but 139.10 – 139.41. Strategy. Longs above 138.77, Target 139.10 – 139.41. Points on the way up, 138.81, 138.83, 139.00, 139.10, 139.25, 139.41. Reversal short to 138.83.

Shorts below 138.77, target 138.42 and Reversal point. A break targets bottom 138.07.

Brian Twomey, Inside the Currency Market, Inside the Currency Market, btwomey.com

Inside the Currency Market: EUR/USD

Price path since 1:00: Shorts at 1.1203, target 1.1175 reversal point Dead stopped at 1.1183 then reversed to 1.1203 as mentioned. Then long from 1.1204 Dead Stopped at 1.1244 in Between Target at 1.1231 – 1.1256. Price reversed to 1.1231 from 1.1244, I mentioned 1.1230. Not exact as I wanted but close. We hit near perfect Statistical Price paths in last 7 hours. EUR/JPY as well. That’s next post.

EUR/USD. Bottom 1.1189. Range Break above 1.1413, Below 1.0938. The topside is rising, Bottom side hardly moving all week. Overbought Sell point 1.1273, 1.1285, 1.1298. Exact point is 1.1298, may fall short. Strategy: Longs above 1.1246, target 1.1273 – 1.1298. Points on the way up, 1.1249, 1.1251, 1.1273, 1.1285, 1.1298. A target met at 1.1298, reverse short to 1.1272, Target met at 1.1285, reverse short to 1.1265, target met at 1.1273, reverse short to 1.1259.

Shorts below 1.1245, Target 1.1217 then bottom 1.1189 on 1.1217 break. Points on the way down, 1.1237, 1.1231, 1.1220.

Brian Twomey, Inside the Currency Market, btwomey.com

Inside the Currency Market: EUR/JPY

EUR/JPY. Bottom. 137.62. Range break above 140.38, Below 136.27. Overbought sell point 138.96. Strategy. Longs above 138.32, Target 138.96 and 138.65. Point 138.65 added as target that falls short of 138.96. A target met at 138.96 reverses short to target 138.64. A target met at 138.65 reverses short to target 138.48. Points on the way up, 138.36, 138.38, 138.51, 138.58, 138.65, 138.81, 138.96.

Shorts below 138.31, Target 137.96. Point 137.96 is possible reversal long point to target 138.31. Points on the way down, 138.29, 138.13, 138.00, 137.97, 137.79, 137.62.

Brian Twomey Inside the Currency Market, btwomey.com

Inside the Currency Market: EUR/USD

Shorts from 1.1182 this morning saw target achieved on a Dead Stop at 1.1154 then bounce back above long point at 1.1183. Price then Dead Stopped at 1.1220 and short of overall 1.1244 target. I’m slowly working on an automatic system to calculate the pairs so to post in minutes perfect price targets and perfect price paths for multitudes of pairs. As long as I have required information, I have ability to forecast 10, 20, 50 pairs perfectly. The amount of pairs isn’t the question, its speed of calculations because its manual for now and a chore.

EUR/USD. Bottom. 1.1147. Range break above 1.1370, Below 1.1038. Overbought sell point 1.1256. Targets at normal targeted levels have been falling short. We want to look at 1.1231 as the target that falls short of 1.1256. Strategy. Longs above 1.1204, target 1.1231 and 1.1256. A target met at 1.1256 then reverses short to 1.1230. A target met at 1.1231 reverses short to 1.1217. Points on the way up, 1.1207, 1.1209, 1.1220, 1.1231, 1.1243, 1.1256.

Shorts below 1.1203, target 1.1175. The target at 1.1175 is also a possible reversal long point. A break lower then targets bottom at 1.1147. A hold at 1.1175 targets again 1.1203. Points on the way down, 1.1201, 1.1195, 1.1189, 1.1178, 1.1175, 1.1161, 1.1154, 1.1147.

Brian Twomey Inside the Currency Market, btwomey.com

Inside the Currency Market: EUR/USD

EUR/USD. Bottom 1.1126. Range break above 1.1105, Below 1.0964. Overbought Sell Point 1.1244. A top nor bottom is seen today rather the price is trapped between a significant resistance above and significant support below. Same scenario in AUD this morning. And same scenario existed during and after FOMC yesterday. My assumption is the support and resistance is located between bottom at 1.1126 – 1.1182. The Skew slightly favors the downside for today.

Strategy. Shorts below 1.1182, target 1.1154 then Bottom at 1.1126. On the way down, 1.1171, 1.1158, 1.1154, 1.1140, 1.1133, 1.1126. Longs above 1.1184, target 1.1244, Points on the way up, 1.1191, 1.1216, 1.1244. Not much confidence in long trades and zilch confidence in a 1.1244 target but I offer the info anyway.

Brian Twomey, Inside the Currency Market, btwomey.com

Inside the Currency Market: AUD/USD

Our EUR/USD target at 1.1195 hit 1.1171. Targets are perfect. Yesterday’s EUR at 1.1119 was 1.1124, the ECB pulled another slick one on the market But they also gave traders the hesitation we saw. Why 95% failure at currency trading if that number is believable is due to severe lack of understanding. It is severe in its lack of understanding. Plus understanding requires lightening speed because the 5% running prices are expert with true 100% knowledge. 95% can’t compete against this crowd. Its impossible. Not even hedge funds have the capacity to trade these markets and they have computers. Its evident in their list of winners and losers. What good is a computer if one doesn’t have understanding. They come with these math formulas and claim expertise yet they lack understanding. They fail to understand tying the knot on shoes assist in keeping the shoes on the feet. A chart doesn’t have the answers needed to trade these markets unless, unless one has the proper information in front of them. But if one has the info in front of them, why look at a chart. So the need for a CMT designation only allows a deeper understanding of nothing. My views are respectfully written as my interests are as much academic as much as practical. Greeks call this term Praxis, how to meld theory to practice and employed in Public Administration in the early 1900’s. Understanding of currency markets is actually the same understanding hundreds and thousands of years ago. Nothing ever changed. What changed is the generation that grew up in the modern day with a computer and a few dollars and ready to tackle the world. Money first, understanding secondary. If understanding fails then the vast majority of info out there is wrong, melding markets for a trade is wrong. A company that hires these analysts must assume the analysts have understanding so are trusted with the money and clients to write and trade accurately. That’s a dangerous relationship and it doesn’t work so its why the analysts are allowed to roam and write freely all their wrong trades, false info, broad statements that can’t be verified. Here’s 2 from My Little Boy Weller. A chart of Oil and CAD that says the correlation is breaking down. Another statement that says Australia and Copper correlations are breaking down. No explanation, no numbers, no facts to back the claims. How about Monday afternoon Long NZD at 0.6600. No explanation just long NZD at 0.6600. This trade was in the water all week and as much as 50 pips. Interesting though is the companies that stand behind these analysts types. That’s the danger. The other side of the coin is a guy named John kicklighter at FXCM. This guy is smart, knows his stuff and is consistently smart over many years.

Reading the Fed minutes reveals the same old story I’ve mentioned for eons. The Fed is scared witless to raise. If Inflation goes out of control under their massive balance sheet then they risk a disaster that can’t be repaired, German 1930 Hyperinflation will hit us faster than anyone would know. The difference in their story this time is they have excuses upon excuses why not to raise, China, Greece, the Dollar, exports. Whatever. The Devil killed his grandmother when she ran out of excuses.

AUD/USD/ Bottom. 0.7284. Range break above 0.7346, 0.7395. Below 0.7297, 0.7272, 0.7248. Overbought sell point 0.7344. Strategy shorts below 0.7321, target 0.7303 then bottom at 0.7285. This trade will update around 9 am EST