The health of currency market prices and markets in general is just fine, viewed from the CAD/ZAR and EUR/USD relationship. As long as both pairs trade at polar opposite extremes as is the case presently then the market in Risk Off / Risk On terms is fine and healthy. The point of worry occurs when either both pairs cross over or when both pairs trade alongside each other as was the situation in 2008. Those situations warn of either major reversals or years of long lasting trends. Currently, we are well positioned in Risk off markets as CAD/ZAR trades well above EUR/USD. Outlined below are major supports, resistance points and oversold/ overbought determinations for 14 EUR pairs. While we’ve been trading short term target points for the past 60 days and 300 + trades, I’m operational to another system that has a view to 1998 and multitudes of Stats for 400 + currency pairs. The points offered are solid and lasting for many months in the future. See breaks along the way, take it.
EUR/USD. Major points below to gain short speed 1.1159 and 1.1140, above 1.2206 but 1.1682 must cross to see 1.2206. Oversold from 1.3284, oversold intraday.
EUR/JPY. Below points 132.52, 131.32, Above 135.03 and 136.45. Way way oversold long and short term unless 132.52 and 131.32 breaks then 127 is next major point. EUR/JPY has been in do or die mode for many months. As the best of a traditional risk off risk on indicator, EUR/JPY failed to deliver perfect signals yet it tracks perfectly to AUD/CAD as its counterpart risk indicator.
EUR/CHF. 1.0777 and 1.0668 below. Does EUR/CHF again regain its dominance as another preeminent Risk on risk off indicator since the SNB lifted the 1.2000 Floor.Hard to say as a possible cross is in the mix Vs CAD/JPY. As a risk measure, CAD/JPY is the best mover in terms of its brothers AUD/CAD and EUR/JPY. EUR/CHF could easily emerge as just another currency pair to trade with the risk on risk off characteristics.
EUR/CAD. 1.4639, 1.4583 and 1.4396. Traditionally a dead mover pair but lately very volatile.
EUR/AUD. 1.5734, 1.5433, 1.5192, 1.5170. This pair is way way overbought. Big mover, wide ranges, great pair.
EUR/GBP. 0.7593, 0.7265, 0.7172. Slowly reaching oversold.
EUR/INR 72.84, 72.19, 70.12. Oversold longer term, fairly oversold short term.
EUR/NOK. 9.1756, 9.0581, 8.1020. Severely and sickly overbought, at current Richter scale overbought levels. Norges just cut Repo rate so volatility expected.
EUR/SEK. 9.3916, 9.3962, 9.3160, 9.2751. Oversold, way oversold.
EUR/ZAR. 14.7393, 14.3126, 12.0849. Way overbought, Part of the EUR/ZAR problem is USD/ZAR is light years overbought. USD/ZAR 13.2039, 12.8452, 9.3719, 8.4620.
EUR/HUF 312.10, 311.75, 279.13.
EUR/BRL. 4.1035, 3.8393, 2.8049. Scary overbought. I wouldn’t touch this pair long for 1 pip.
EUR/TRY. 3.1466, 3.2439, 2.5601, Way overbought. Careful longs.
EUR/CZK. The 27.00 Floor continues to hold, barely. 27.16, 26.38, 27.79.
Brian Twomey, Inside the Currency Market, btwomey.com