Inside the Currency Market: EUR/CAD

EUR/CAD. Bottom. 1.4811. Range break above 1.5034, Below 1.4647. Overbought sell point, 1.4959, 1.4979. Strategy. Longs above 1.4887, Target 1.4959. Then reverse short to target 1.4922 then 1.4886. Points on the way up, 1.4891, 1.4907, 1.4924, 1.4941, 1.4959.

Shorts below 1.4886, Target 1.4848. Watch for reversal here to 1.4886 and higher. Break below 1.4848, next points on the way down, 1.4876, 1.4867, 1.4859, 1.4851, 1.4831 Bottom 1.4811. Point 1.4848 must cross to go higher.

Brian Twomey Inside the Currency Market btwomey.com

Inside the Currency Market: EUR/USD

Trades from this afternoon. EUR/USD short 1.1246, target 1.1217 Dead Stopped 1.1205, +41 pips. EUR/CAD Short 1.4947, Bottom 1.4873 broke, Dead Stop 1.4866 +81 pips. Total pips +122.

EUR/USD Bottom. 1.1163. Range break above 1.1332, Below 1.1040. Overbought sell point 1.1275. Strategy. Long above 1.1220, Target 1.1275. Reverse short to target 1.1247 then break 1.1220. Points on the way up, 1.1224, 1.1236, 1.1248, 1.1261, 1.1275.

Short below 1.1220, Target 1.1191. Watch reversal here to target 1.1220 and higher. Break continues lowe to points on the way down, 1.1212, 1.1205, 1.1199, 1.1193, 1.1178, 1.1163 Bottom. Bottom breaks then target 1.1143.

Brian Twomey Inside the Currency Market btwomey.com

Inside the Currency Market: EUR/CAD

To follow up to yesterday’s Fed Funds close at 0.08. Yesterday’s USD curve was 0.0117 and 0.0110 for Europe, a 0.007 difference. But is this the way it should be viewed. Of course not. Actual was USD 0.0001 and Europe 0.0001, a Russian stand off or better stated a dead market going nowhere. Yet an explanation why FED Funds dropped precipitously. Did CAD break 1.3254 last evening, no and remained in what 20 pip range all night. What’s the price of money is terms of both curves in Core Inflation terms. Well 1.7% for USD and 0.1 Europe. That’s 0.017 USD and 0.001 Europe. Inflation in Europe is still quite high because its above the exchange rate. A BMW is still not cheaper than a Ford if I might borrow Dao’s terms. The goal of the ECB is Inflation lower than exchange rate and why they adopted negative interest rates. Only then will the EUR/USD trend higher.

EUR/CAD. Bottom. 1.4873. Range break above 1.5098, Below 1.5191. Overbought sell point 1.5022 – 1.5058. Ranges wide in this area. Strategy. Long above 1.4951, Target 1.5022. Then reverse short to target 1.4985 then 1.4949. Points on the way up, 1.4951, 1.4954, 1.4970, 1.4987, 1.5004, 1.5022, 1.5040, 1.5058. If price falls short of target that price is 1.4987.

Shorts below 1.4947, Target 1.4911. Points on the way down 1.4938, 1.4930, 1.4921, 1.4913, 1.4893, Bottom 1.4873. Bottom holds then long again to target 1.4911 then 1.4949 and higher. 1.4011 must cross to go higher. Bottom breaks then 1.4827 next.

Brian Twomey Inside the Currency Market, btwomey.com

Inside the Currency Market: EUR/USD

Review morning trades. EUR/USD Shorts below 1.1254, Target 1.1226 saw 1.1222. Reported bottom held 1.1198. Then longs above reported 1.1226, target 1.1254 saw 1.1245 and a point mentioned. I can’t take proper credit for shorts except for targets because I ran to late for the full short trade. I take credit for long above 1.1226 to 1.1245, + 19. Nothing special this trip.

EUR/CAD. Bottom 1.4844 violated to 1.4826 then longs above 1.4881 to target first 1.4919 and 1.4969. Dead stop occurred at 1.4969 +87 pips. Then short to 1.4944 then 1.4919 violated to 1.4911. + 49 pips. Both trades, 2 hours, + 19, + 87, + 49 = + 155 pips. Not counting violations.

All points, ranges, targets fully outlined every trade so all know completely the entire market, price locations. Rarely do we see a big miss, always perfectly on track, at least 90% targets hit every time. Never never a loss. I don’t miss, I won’t ever miss and always on target. Readers benefit from not just one trade for profit but many longs and shorts in an outline of the full Statistical Price Paths in every trade. Even on dead days, we make money and catch every price move for profit.

EUR/USD. Bottom. 1.1189. Range break above 1.1358, Below 1.1066. Overbought sell point 1.1301 – 1.1328. Strategy. Longs above 1.1248, target 1.1301. Then reverse short to 1.1274 then 1.1246. Points on the way up, 1.1250, 1.1262, 1.1274, 1.1287, 1.1301, 1.1328.

Shorts below 1.1246, Target 1.1217. Watch for reversal here to 1.1246 and higher. A break continues lower to 1.1238, 1.1231, 1.1225, 1.1219, 1.1203,Bottom 1.1189. Bottom breaks then 1.1127.

EUR/CAD treated us well, that’s next then USD/CAD and more. For the future, I will refrain from acknowledgements. just wish to say thank you to all viewers.

Brian Twomey, Inside the Currency Market, btwomey.com

Inside the Currency Market: EUR/CAD

EUR/CAD. Bottom 1.4844. Range break above 1.5068, Below 1.4735. Overbought sell point 1.4969. Strategy Longs above 1.4918, Target 1.4969, Then reverse short to 1.4944 then 1.4918.

Shorts below 1.4918, Target 1.4881. Bottom breaks at 1.4844 then 1.4789 and 1.4735. Point 1.4881 must break to go higher to target 1.4918 and higher. Points on the way down, 1.4889, 1.4892, 1.4885, 1.4881, 1.4862, 1.4844 then 1.4789, 1.4735.

Brian Twomey, Inside the Currency Market, btwomey.com

Inside the Currency Market: EUR/USD

EUR/USD. Bottom. 1.1198. Range break above 1.1393, Below 1.1116. Overbought sell point 1.1292, look for failure at 1.1281. Strategy. Shorts below 1.1254, Target 1.1226. Watch for reversal here to 1.1254 and higher. 1.1226 must cross above to go higher. Points on the way down, 1.1245, 1.1239, 1.1234, 1.1230, 1.1226, 1.1212 then Bottom 1.1198. Bottom breaks then next target 1.1157.

Longs above 1.1255, Target 1.1291. Points on the way up, 1.1260, 1.1262, 1.1271, 1.1281, 1.1292.

Brian Twomey, Inside the Currency Market, btwomey.com

Inside the Currency Market: AUD/USD

A possible explanation why Fed Funds decides to drop to lowest depths as it did yesterday is due to USD market yields lacks a 60 day interest rate. Rates exists at 30, 90 and 180. Australia and Canada also lack a 60 day market interest rate. The UK lacks a 60 day interest rate while New Zealand offers a 60 day rate. For New Zealand, I always believed it was a time factor to consider since New Zealand times are out of sync with Europe and the US so the Australia and Asia connection had to factor to the 60 day rate. The interesting aspect to interest rate curves is they begin the day, any day overbought. That means market instruments to borrow and lend money also begin overbought. That includes currencies. If interest rate curves are compared to each other such as USD and Europe then one understands the small channels money is borrowed and lent. The Europe curve yesterday was 0.0110 while USD was 0.0117 and both overbought. Literally market instruments traded in a zone of 0.0007 which isn’t terrible but we didn’t see much movement in EUR/USD. Some days are factored for EUR/USD not to move so we must look to cross pairs instead. See anything exciting in those numbers. So the drop is blamed on a fluke? where nobody was interested in lending or borrowing money yesterday. New Zealand is the nation that always gains advantage because they have options at the 60 day to pick and choose where to borrow and lend.

USD/CAD ranged overnight 1.3216 –1.3251. My point mentioned at 1.3254 held as price ranged in a 35 pip zone. Doing nothing in CAD was a smart move. But it was seen due to its location, it wasn’t meant to move.

AUD/USD. Bottom. 0.6999. AUD/USD is priced to fall as the RBA is not moving the needle to see AUD higher. Rallies are meant to sell. Range break above 0.7058 and 0.7011, Below 0.6919. Overbought sell point 0.7047. Strategy. Longs above 0.7035, Target 0.7047.

Shorts below 0.7034, Target 0.7016 and a point that must break to see AUD higher to target 0.7034. Strategy is short below 0.6999 to target next 0.6959 then 0.6919 then 0.6894 and 0.6870.

Brian Twomey Inside the Currency Market, btwomey.com