Apologies as prices this morning moved faster than my calculations. 1.1079 held as well as 1.1141, both reported. QE and Inflation were key words to drop the Euro because those are the heart to Monetary policy. QE and interest rates share an historic, natural divergence. If QE is on track to continue and its going smoothly as Draghi mentioned then the exchange rate will go lower naturally. The point of this blog was to post trades, market information and whatever my wide ranging interest may be at anytime. But it wasn’t meant to be EURO centralized. I’ve had computer issues and my system is still not running. Another day it will be up and moving again so I’ll be able to post tons of other pairs. For now, I will continue with Euro and Euro pairs and diversify as much as possible. The calculations take time and its the reason why I don’t post many pairs. Its time intensive and if I wish to be exact as I have been then its the way for now. I’m working on automation of current calculation to post quicker and further diversify.
EUR/USD. Bottom. 1.1053. Range break above 1.1220, 1.1288. Below, 1.0931. Overbought sell point 1.1163 and 0 1.1176. The current EUR/USD price is mid range. Overbought begins and the sell point is found at 1.1163. Yet 1.1109 must break to see Euro lower. A break of 1.1136 then EUR/USD goes higher to next 1.1149, 1.1156, 1.1163, 1.1176.
Strategy. Wait for 1.1163 – 1.1176 to sell then short to target 1.1142, 1.1136 and 1.1109 break. Short 1.1108 break then target 1.1081. Watch for reversal here to 1.1109 and higher. Points on the way down, 1.1104, 1.1101, 1.1094, 1.1088, 1.1082, 1.1067, 1.1053 Bottom. Long points on the way up, 1.1111, 1.1123, 1.1136, 1.1149, 1.1156, 1.1163, 1.1176.
Point of note. EUR/USD at Mid range means all pairs are mid range.
Brian Twomey Inside the Currency Market, btwomey.com