Inside the Currency Market: EUR/CAD

Back to old reliable EUR/CAD because tomorrow the Bank of Canada meets and because EUR/CHF will not perform. All I needed was a one time test run to determine EUr/CHF won’t do the job.

Canada exports to the United States increased slightly by exports in car parts. Its one of the major shipments for Canada. The Oil sector is not growing in Canada particularly as August Jobs saw an increase in Government jobs, social service and education. Jobs increased 12,000, a 0.1% jump. The unemployment rate jumped 0.26% to 7.0$ while 6.8% was the rate for the past 6 months. 54,000 full time jobs were added but part time jobs decreased by 42,000. To offer comparison from 1 year ago, + 193,000 jobs were added and a 1% increase.Full time was 318,000 and + 2.2% yet part time declined 125,000.
The big problem for Canada is Core CPI at 2.4% and higher than headline at 1.4%. This point alone doesn’t say raise rates. What we should see is USD/CAD shoots far higher on a report by poloz that can’t be rosy. Rate rises if any won’t be seen until long into late 2016. Canada hopes the Fed raises and can export their way back to health. Only way to do this as expected by the BOC is USD/CAD much higher. Canada exports to the United States is an imperative as US were always Canada’s largest. EUR/CAD as well will be volatile.

For CAD, best moves will be seen at 9:00 EST, that;s standard for CAD.

EUR/CAD. Bottom. 1.4691. Range break above 1.4833, Below 1.4618. Overbought sell point 1.4857. Strategy. Longs above 1.4766, Target 1.4857. The interval points are extremely wide. Targets can easily overshoot. The failure point 1.4813. Upon 1.4857 target, short reverse to 1.4811. Failure at 1.4813 then short reverse to 1.4789. Points on the way up, 1.4774, 1.4793, 1.4813, 1.4835, 1.4857. Next top 1.4935.

Shorts below 1.4764, Target 1.4728. Watch this point for reversal to 1.4764. Points on the way downm 1.4763, 1.4752, 1.4742, 1.4733, 1.4712, 1.4692 Bottom.

Brian Twomey, Inside the Currency Market, btwomey.com

Inside the Currency Market: EUR/USD

Long from 1.1177, hit 1.1212 failure, dead stopped 1.1215 then reversed to 1.1194 saw 1.1187. +53 total. EUR/CHF failed at 1.0982 and reversed to 1.0955. So from long 1.0952, +30 and short +27. Total pips 110. Next we go with EUR/CAD because tomorrow is BOC and because EUR/CHF is not going to be a good performer. I posted this because one of the members of the Money first Cabal said EUR/CHF is going through the roof. He’s obviously not only dead wrong but he’s a proven Bernays Propagandists. Excuse this cheer count the pips rah rah. Its for new readers.

EUR/USD. Bottom 1.1138. Range break above 1.1246, Below 1.1142. Overbought sell point 1.1257, Failure point 1.1243. Strategy. Long above 1.1195, Target 1.1257. Then reverse short to 1.1226. Failure at 1.1243 then short to 1.1219. Points on the way up, 1.1201, 1.1214, 1.1230, 1.1247, 1.1255, 1.1264.

Shorts below 1.1194, Target 1.1166. Watch for reversal here to 1.1194 and higher. Points on the way down, 1.1193, 1.1184, 1.1176, 1.1170, 1.1154, 1.1138 Bottom. 1.1166 must break higher to go long.

Brian Twomey, Inside the Currency Market, btwomey.com

Inside the Currency Market: EUR/CHF

The SNB dropped the EUR/CHF Floor at 1.2200 or CHF/EUR 0.8196 and raised it to EUR/CHF 1.0900 or CHF/EUR 0.9174. The original Floor at EUR/CHF at 1.2200 was set at the 20 year average and remained at the 20 year average from Floor inception in 2009. The Floor elimination was forced on the SNB as the ECB went Deposit rate negative. The SNB counterattacked and went deposit negative. Yet rescind the floor was smart for the SNB because Swiss Francs at 0.27 deposits in European banks to earn current 0.86, a 59 point spread. A lower EUR/CHF gains more Swiss Francs to deposit in European banks yet a higher EUR/CHF allows a lower export price to the SNB’s main trading partner. The SNB in my estimation would like to see EUR/CHF in ranges rather than trend.

EUR/CHF. Bottom. 1.0897. Range break above 1.1002, Below 1.0952 and 1.0900. Overbought sell point 1.1019. A failure could easily occur at 1.1002 cause that’s a range point. Target at 1.1002 then short to 1.0977. At 1.1019 then short to 1.0985. Strategy. Longs above 1.0952, Target 1.1002 – 1.1019. Points on the way up, 1.0958, 1.0972, 1.0986, 1.1002, 1.109.

Shorts below 1.0951, Target 1.0924. Watch for reversal here to 1.0952 and higher. Points on the way down, 1.0949, 1.0941, 1.0934, 1.0927, 1.0912, 1.0897 Bottom.

Brian Twomey, Inside the Currency Market, btwomey.com

Inside the Currency Market: EUR/USD

To reiterate for new viewers. Stops? We haven’t used a stop in the last 200 + trades and every trade made money. We don’t need a Stop, its not necessary. I know exactly the tops, bottoms, ranges, points in between and Turning points. Normally targets hit perfectly then reverse exactly as written. This is a vastly different system than used in 2012 trades if any readers were around for those times. We miss targets every now and then but only by a few pips. Sometimes misses are in the favor of the original trade so its a bonus. Yet never never a loss. Won’t be a loss either. No charts either because charts aren’t needed. Nothing to see in charts, nothing. So no need for a picture. Its belief in the numbers. I know for new readers it must be hard to believe in numbers without a picture but that’s the way it is. For new skeptical readers, just follow along and watch the trades. Every trade posted makes money.

This morning EUR/USD trade. Here was example of failure before target at 1.1226. Failure was 1.1196 from long 1.1162. We did + 34 pips on longs. Reversal was 1.1194 but failure saw instead 1.1171, another + 25. Know 1.1126 was overbought sell point so as price hits the upper zone, the sell point is coming.

EUR/USD. Bottom. 1.1120. Range break above 1.1228, Below 1.1065. Overbought sell point 1.1245. Strategy. Longs above 1.1177, Target 1.1245. Then reverse short to target 1.1211. Failure point of target 1.1212 then reverse short to 1.1194. Points on the way up, 1.1183, 1.1190, 1.1197, 1.1204, 1.1212, 1.1228, 1.1245. Good chance 1.1245 is not seen, look for failure before.

Shorts below 1.1175, Target 1.1148. Break 1.1148, we go lower, Points on the way down, 1.1166, 1.1162, 1.1159, 1.1155, 1.1152, 1.1121 Bottom. 1.1148 must break to go higher to target 1.1175 and higher. Lower bottoms at 1.1121 is oversold, we go long again.

More trades coming,

Brian Twomey, Inside the Currency Market, btwomey.com

Inside the Currency Market: EUR/USD

Terrific article on site by the Great Martin Armstrong, What is Money. Dovetails with my last posts regarding interest rates and Inflation. I’m on the Heels of Martin Armstrong which means I’m doing just astoundingly fine, on the right track and growing even further. Money is Inflated by nature, its natural, can’t be stopped. To stop money inflated means economies die because we can’t borrow and lend, create more money and wealth. Its why Borrow and lend interest rates are so vital. Every currency by itself or by a matched exchange rate is inflated. But inflated creates markets, long and shorts, trends or dead ranges. Sometimes these central bankers create wide ranges, other times not. We could never go 2 X any range. Only question is what does the central bank want to do with its currency. What Armstrong introduces Purchasing Power, a topic I must view further in relation to my data. Borrow lend economically by citizens creates Purchasing power. Add Inflation to interest rate in Europe and we have nothing at 0.0001 Inflation. A bold statement in which I’m allowed to render, I am the central bank because my calculations are the exact same as every central banker in this world. Its why traders to my site never lose, nor will ever lose. 200 + trades are on the site to view for inspection. Most hit exact targets and reversed to mentioned levels. I call it my Statistical Price Paths because I offer traders opportunities to hit both long and short targets in every trade, every currency pair. Most done done within 1, 2 hours, sometimes less. I have spent my life to understand the currency price, literally for many many years. All would be surprised at the limited knowledge analysts and traders have regarding a currency price, a pip.

Last EUR/USD trade, long 1.1169, Target 1.1233 achieved, + 64 then short to 1.1201 + 32 yet price broke as mentioned to head lower so + 96 pips.

EUR/USD Today’s range is 58 pips total, 24 pips downside, 37 pips upside. Two vital points 1.1291, that’s the moving line written with Saturday’s Trade. Hasn’t moved hardly since Sunday opening. Bottom dropped to 1.0171. How can I possibly know all this. I do and its perfectly exact. We’re not goping to see much from EUR this morning.

EUR/USD. Bottom 1.1105. Range break above 1.1252, Below 1.1050. Overbought sell point 1.1226, Note targets coming down, slowly but coming down. Strategy. Longs above 1.1162, target 1.1226. Then reverse short to 1.1194 and lower upon break to see 1.1161 break. Points on the way up, 1.1167, 1.1180, 1.1194, 1.1210, 1.1226.

Shorts below 1.1161, Target 1.1133. Watch for reversal here to 1.1161 and break higher. Price below 1.1133 must break higher to see higher prices. Points on the way down, 1.1157, 1.1149, 1.1142, 1.1136, 1.1112, 1.1105 Bottom.

Brian Twomey, Inside the Currency Market, btwomey.com