Back to old reliable EUR/CAD because tomorrow the Bank of Canada meets and because EUR/CHF will not perform. All I needed was a one time test run to determine EUr/CHF won’t do the job.
Canada exports to the United States increased slightly by exports in car parts. Its one of the major shipments for Canada. The Oil sector is not growing in Canada particularly as August Jobs saw an increase in Government jobs, social service and education. Jobs increased 12,000, a 0.1% jump. The unemployment rate jumped 0.26% to 7.0$ while 6.8% was the rate for the past 6 months. 54,000 full time jobs were added but part time jobs decreased by 42,000. To offer comparison from 1 year ago, + 193,000 jobs were added and a 1% increase.Full time was 318,000 and + 2.2% yet part time declined 125,000.
The big problem for Canada is Core CPI at 2.4% and higher than headline at 1.4%. This point alone doesn’t say raise rates. What we should see is USD/CAD shoots far higher on a report by poloz that can’t be rosy. Rate rises if any won’t be seen until long into late 2016. Canada hopes the Fed raises and can export their way back to health. Only way to do this as expected by the BOC is USD/CAD much higher. Canada exports to the United States is an imperative as US were always Canada’s largest. EUR/CAD as well will be volatile.
For CAD, best moves will be seen at 9:00 EST, that;s standard for CAD.
EUR/CAD. Bottom. 1.4691. Range break above 1.4833, Below 1.4618. Overbought sell point 1.4857. Strategy. Longs above 1.4766, Target 1.4857. The interval points are extremely wide. Targets can easily overshoot. The failure point 1.4813. Upon 1.4857 target, short reverse to 1.4811. Failure at 1.4813 then short reverse to 1.4789. Points on the way up, 1.4774, 1.4793, 1.4813, 1.4835, 1.4857. Next top 1.4935.
Shorts below 1.4764, Target 1.4728. Watch this point for reversal to 1.4764. Points on the way downm 1.4763, 1.4752, 1.4742, 1.4733, 1.4712, 1.4692 Bottom.
Brian Twomey, Inside the Currency Market, btwomey.com