Inside the Currency Market: AUD/USD

AUD/USD. Bottom. 0.7036. Range break above 0.7072, 0.7095, Below 0.7047 and 0.7001. Overbought sell point 0.7094. Strategy. Longs above 0.7072, target 0.7094. Note target between two range points. That’s dangerous. Break above 0.7095, targets 0.7118, 0.7142. Target 0.7094 then short to 0.7083 and still within ranges. points on the way up, 0.7075, 0.7082, 0.7094.

Shorts below 0.7071, Target 0.7053. Point 0.7047 must break to target 0.7036 bottom and 0.7024 then 0.7001. The point 0.7053 must break to see AUD lower to target 0.7035, 0.7047, 0.7024 and 0.7001. AUD is not too thrilling, caution caution to take this trade.

Brian Twomey, Inside the Currency Market, btwomey.com

Inside the Currency Market: EUR/USD

Last EUR/USD trade long 1.1264, target 1.1323, failure 1.124 dead stopped at 1.1300, +36 then short to 1.1279, + 15, total + 51.

EUR/USD. Bottom. 1.1224. Range break above 1.1393, Below 1.1137. Overbought sell point 1.1340, failure point 1.1320. Strategy. Longs above 1.1282, target 1.1340. Reverse short at 1.1320 to 1.1301. Points on the way up, 1.1284, 1.1297, 1.1311, 1.1320, 1.1325, 1.1340.

Shorts below 1.1281, Target 1.1252. Watch here for reversal to 1.1281. Points on the way down, 1.1274, 1.1272, 1.1267, 1.1260, 1.1254, 1.1239, 1.1224 Bottom. Point 1.1252 must cross to go higher. Bottom breaks then 1.1201.

AUD/USD coming in seconds, Thanks all for views and FXstreet friends

Brian Twomey, Inside the Currency Market, btwomey.com

Inside the Currency Market: AUD/USD

What assist in AUD/USD’s downtrend is AUD/CAD. AUD/CAD held the longest time above supports at 0.9500’s and 0.9400. I still lack my system so don’t know the exact points. When AUD/CAD broke below then both AUD/CAD and AUD/USD saw fresh downsides. The significance of AUD/CAD and AUD/USD is both are the exact same pair and share a wonderful relationship. This has always been the case. But AUD/CAD is a market measure to risk on / risk off and historically movements are extremely slow. Under slow movements, its the pair among all AUD pairs that contains AUD/USD movements. Slow movements means like 500 pip ranges over many years. The fact that AUD/CAD broke significant points means both pairs in the larger picture will see more downsides. The next major point for AUD/CAD is in the low 0.9200’s, its another 150 pips. But to really understand AUD/USD, its a Silver currency whose relationship still holds its 200 yer tradition when AUD was first pegged to its Silver currency brother, GBP. Attached is a chart to show AUD/USD and its Silver relationship. Its a solid solid relationship that won’t ever break under any market or fundamental scenario. http://fxtop.com/en/historical-exchange-rates-comparison-graph-zoom.php?C1a=AUD&C1b=USD&C2a=AUD&C2b=CAD&C3a=XAG&C3b=XAU&C4a=XAU&C4b=XAG&C5a=&C5b=&C6a=&C6b=&C7a=&C7b=&C8a=&C8b=&C9a=&C9b=&C10a=&C10b=&DD1=01&MM1=08&YYYY1=2015&DD2=08&MM2=09&YYYY2=2015&LARGE=1&M=1&LANG=en

The points and targets offered will be very close but not exact.

AUD/USD. Bottom. 0.6918. Range break above 0.7070, 0.7092,0.7102, Below 0.6975. Overbought sell point, none exists. Strategy. Shorts and longs must look at next ranges at 0.7070 and 0.7092 as long and short points. I would view 0.7070 vicinity as short point to 0.7011. I don’t have much to offer until China opens. I will report again in about 2 hours.

Brian Twomey Inside the Currency Market, btwomey.com

Inside the Currency Market: EUR/USD

The route for posts is first Fxstreet.net, tradingfloor then twitter. Both tradingfloor and twitter are completely worthless. Twitter is a Russian standoff, the next guy wants everybody to read their posts but neither reads each other. I’m not one of the insiders or part of the retail cabal that dominates so I don’t see twitter views. Hopefully, I’m viewed as a threat, a proud honor If I am. The only reason I continue tradingfloor is because a website in Australia picks up my posts otherwise I would’ve been long gone. No longer am I interested in writing articles all around or interviews. All writings and post are found here on an old blog that may eventually be upgraded. Rather than compete for the multitudes against tons of websites, plans are to publish more academic papers on exchange rate related topics. Many topics are yet to be explored properly. So all writings and trade posts are found here.

EUR longs bolted from 1.1185 past target to extension 1.1282. Extensions were highlighted. Two points of interest above are tough resistance 1.1352 and 1.1390.

EUR/USD. Bottom. 1.1206. Range break above 1.1376, Below 1.1120. Overbought sell point 1.1323. Strategy. Longs above 1.1264, target 1.1323, Failure 1.1294. At 1.1323 reverse short to 1.1293, at 1.1294 short to 1.1279. Points on the way up, 1.1267, 1.1280, 1.1294, 1.1308, 1.1323. Extensions 1.1352, 1.1381.

Shorts below 1.1263, target 1.1234. Watch for reversal here to target 1.1263. Points on the way down, 1.1257, 1.1250, 1.1243, 1.1236, 1.1221, 1.1206 Bottom.

Brian Twomey, Inside the Currency Market, btwomey.com

Inside the Currency Market: EUR/USD

From yesterday afternoon’s nasty extension (my correctly defined word), EUR/USD from 1.1234 saw 1.1171 lows, EUR/CAD saw 1.4753 lows from 1.4930’s. My assumption is anyone caught yesterday is now not only in profits but hopefully smart ones took on additional shorts to earn further profits. Extensions are nasty market moves but never worry, I have it covered. My feeling is NZD caused the extension since an interest rate adjustment means all currency prices must re adjust. I’m working on a currency price post for interested as well as inclusion to explain in depth what we are doing here in our trades so to bring understanding. Most important is continued profits always and never, never a loss. Extensions are one reason why stop losses are traps. Stops are not ever needed. They say I don’t know what I’m doing, I don’t understand, I’m scared and what if scenarios that brings the mind to depths where it doesn’t belong.

EUR/USD. Bottom. 1.1129. Range break above 1.1275, Below 1.1073. Overbought sell point 1.1250. Failure point 1.1219. Strategy. Longs above 1.1185, Target 1.1250. Then reverse short to 1.1217. At 1.1219 then short to 1.1202. What’s driving prices is middle aspects to this curve because ranges in the mid section are wide. I saw this coming 2 days ago in EUR/CAD but now I see it melded into EUR/USD. Points on the way up, 1.1191, 1.1219, 1.1234, 1.1240, 1.1250, Extensions in case 1.1264, 1.1279, and 1.1309 if weirdness hits. Very doubtful.

Shorts below 1.1184, target 1.1156. Watch here for reversal to 1.1184. Continuation then points on the way down, 1.1181, 1.1173, 1.1159, 1.1143, Bottom 1.1128. Point 1.1156 must cross to go higher to target 1.1184.

Brian Twomey Inside the Currency Market, btwomey.com

Trade Targets: Derivations and Explanations

Please allow background. My Inside the Currency Market book is an important document but it was a personal turning point in understanding since I delved so deeply into the minds and operations of central banks. I earned unprecedented access to central bank traders at the BOE, RBNZ, and those that create markets such as the London Brokers Wholesale Markets Association. The section on interest rates is most vital because it shows the relationship between interest rates and currency prices. It was here I began a multi year venture to understand a currency price.

I first captured the interest rate, currency price by melding carefully chosen Moving averages, carefully chosen time frames then applying carefully chosen math formulas that work. I literally went back to ancient times to study the bible, Arabs, Persians, Sumerians, Hittes, Greeks, Jews, Christians, Indians from India to determine how they viewed and calculated numbers. The world began based on multiples of 5 for all nationalities and here was derived the Standard Deviation by the Sumerians, yet unknown to them but credited to Gauss in the 1800’s. If 5 is the foundation of the world, markets are designed based on 5 multiples. Math formulas is an important statement because it took time since a vast vast majority of math formulas are utter and pathetic failures.

Statistics is by far the way but Statistics has the ability to constantly calculate separations. One can get lost in calculations so a cutoff point must be found. So I hit the professions to see how certain Statistics was applied. Physics for example is a failure in all math formulas such as Heisenberg, De Broglie, Schrodinger while Audiology and Meteorology are correct and fascinating. Think Amplitudes and wind speeds. The only other calculations viable is Pi and Pi deviations because PI views are seen in full circle circumferences and it is here where is derived the wave, not cycles but waves because in Unit Circles is determined where are exact Pi locations, negative or positive. Negative Pi must travel to positive and vice versa and its basically the same for Statistics. But the same PI deviations can be seen in Sine and Cosine waves. What the great Martin Armstrong sees in Pi to determine market turning points is Pi locations. If he finds negative Pi then he knows Pi must go positive. What I wanted was perfection, what I found after much time and testing was perfection. But then I built on those math formulas to go directly to the heart of the central bank, the interest rate. I then devised interest rate models, interest rate curves. Same story as previous, how the heck does it work. Well after time, I found the answer.

The central banks by itself or collusion run, determine, dictate currency prices. They inform currency price direction, levels of exchange rates. They don’t just inform, they yell it from the rooftops. But control is their way to not let the currency price go far out of whack, far out of place. Central banks despise volatility and movements because they can’t control a fast moving price. Better to stop volatility before it begins. But they counteract volatility if seen by stopping it dead in its tracks. How.

What is the difference between AUD, CHF, JPY, EUR, GBP. The answer is nothing, they are all the same even if it is the Botswana Dollar. They are just names that separate a nation by three letters. The joke on the trading public is to include the 3 letters together and call it an exchange rate. An exchange rate is valuable only if one wishes to exchange. To trade, all is needed is to know one of the 3 letters. What is the difference between nations exchange rates, nothing except its separated by an interest rate number. That’s the value in trading and profits. Interest rate have different names per nation but like the 3 letters of a nation’s currency, its just a name. Euribor and Fed funds are just names and only have value in the respective numbers.

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