Inside the Currency Market: EUR/USD

This afternoon saw 1.1163 – 1.1174 range. Points 1.1158 and 1.1139 are no longer valid. New points are 1.1137 and 1.1157. Downside gains 2 pips. Modern day currency trading certainly adds new dimensions to time series. Longer term, break of 1.1137 will gain downside speed.

EUR/USD. Bottom. 1.1109. Range break above 1.1243, 1.1256, Below 1.1087, 1.1074. Overbought sell point 1.1224, Failure point 1.1193. Strategy. Longs above 1.1166, Target 1.1224 then reverse short to 1.1195. Points on the way up, 1.1169, 1.1181, 1.1194, 1.1209, 1.1224.

Shorts below 1.1165, Target 1.1137. Watch here for reversal to 1.1165 and higher. Points on the way down, 1.1159, 1.1152, 1.1145, 1.1148, 1.1138, 1.1130, 1.1123, 1.1109 Bottom. Point 1.1137 must cross to go higher.

Brian Twomey, Inside the Currency Market, btwomey.com

Inside the Currency Market: 6 AUD Pairs Major Levels

Same as yesterday as outlined by EUR and GBP pairs. Major levels reported as well as Overbought/ Oversold determinations. Levels and points are not only credible and actionable but they are carefully, carefully calculated to be exact. I offer the 6 major AUD pairs because they are most popular and important to the RBA. The commonality of the 6 pairs is 4 of the 6 pairs are almost exactly the same pairs. Those pairs are AUD/USD, AUD/JPY, AUD/CAD and AUD/CHF. The oddball pairs are AUD/NZD and AUD/GBP. Why AUD/GBP is offered is because it was the first ever pair aligned as an exchange rate 200 years prior to and when Australia became a formal nation in 1901? Australia shares a long long history with AUD/GBP. Secondly, AUD/GBP is close to important breaks so one can understand why GBP/AUD has been kinda dead and range bound for a long time. In AUD/GBP, I will look at reciprocals to GBP/AUD. AUD/CAD is important because its a risk on, risk off indicator. Traditionally, it doesn’t move far and wide. Decade after decade, AUD/CAD can see 300 – 500 pip movements to offer what doesn’t move far and wide means. As well, AUD/CAD is married to AUD/USD and its the second reason to its importance.

AUD/NZD. 1.1872, 1.1762, 1.1143, 1.1033. Nothing special in AUD/NZD. Pre crisis highs at 2.5 saw 0.0770 lows. AUD/NZD has been working its way back from crisis lows.

AUD/CAD. 0.9931, 0.9491, 0.9483, 0.9459, 0.9367, 0.9274. AUD/CAD isn’t overbought or oversold, its a rare day when it is overbought or oversold. Take the breaks as they come.

AUD/CHF. This pair is severely oversold and has great potential as a long trade. From present 0.6600’s, next levels 0.8910, 0.7033, 0.6991. Bottoms are found at 0.6800,0.6697, 0.6527, 0.6351 and crazy oversold 0.6151. Good pair for the radar screen.

AUD/JPY. 89.94, 88.79, 87.64, 87.50, 87.46, 84.00, 81.14. Watch closely 84.00, price is here. This would be a big break and worth taking the short, particularly when EUR/JPY is on the verge of its break at 132’s.

AUD/USD. AUD shorts are getting more and more scary. The bottom is close. I’m looking at 0.6532 so far as bottom. After 0.6532 then we go into degrees of oversold. Important points: 0.7242, 0.7343, 0.7828.

AUD/GBP. From current 0.4600’s, 0.4926, 0.4746, 0.4726, 0.4717. All are vital breaks. The reciprocal to GBP/AUD is 2.0300, 2.1070, 2.1159, 2.1199. Current GBP/AUD is 2.1542. Any rises in GBP/AUD means more overbought.

Brian Twomey, Inside the Currency Market, btwomey.com

Inside the Currency Market: EUR/USD

Yes so Commercial Paper traded in the United States since the late 19th century and became popular just after the Civil War and Industrial Revolution. How else could companies grow, borrow and invest for projects now that would last far into the future. Quick Wikipedia views says Marcus Goldman traded Commercial Paper in 1869. Marcus Goldman is the founder of Goldman Sachs. The 3 month Treasury Bill wasn’t thought about until Hoover put it into actual practice in 1930? 1929. Only then was the United States on an automatic ability to finance the government. Two self serving sectors existed to automatically fund themselves the private sector and Commercial Paper and 3 month Treasury Bills to fund short term obligations of the Fiscal sector called Government. Fed funds came much later after passage of 1913 Federal Reserve Act. The rest is history as both sectors grew to what exists today. Between Libor and Eurodollars overseas and Commercial paper, its the core components to understand the United States financial system as well as DXY. Fed Funds serves as a tiny tiny fraction of the whole system and DXY. Looking at the tiny fraction to understand the whole sometimes doesn’t work.

1.1158 reported this morning was violated by 1 pip. Very good for continued shorts. Again, the long end of the Euro curve continues to drop and at the fastest rate I’ve seen in many many months. 1.1139 also exists below.

Morning trade was what 1.1203 to 1.1157, + 46 pips.

EUR/USD. Bottom. 1.1119. Range break above 1.1253, 1.1266, Below 1.1097. Overbought sell point 1.1234, Failure point 1.1204. Strategy. Longs above 1.1175, Target 1.1234 then reverse to 1.1204 and 1.1189. Points on the way up, 1.1177, 1.1179, 1.1191, 1.1204, 1.1219, 1.1234.

Shorts below 1.1174, Target 1.1147. Watch for reversal here to 1.1174 and higher. Points on the way down, 1.1169, 1.1162, 1.1155, 1.1151, 1.1148, 1.1140, 1.1133,1.1126, 1.1119 Bottom. Point 1.1147 must cross to go higher.

Brian Twomey, Inside the Currency Market, btwomey.com

Inside the Currency Market: EUR/USD

Deutche Bank this morning reports EUR/USD equilibrium level at 1.16 something. I reported that yesterday as point to cross for EUR higher. Reported GBP/SEK way oversold, well Citi and Kit Jukes at Societe General come out today in favor of longs. Ahead of the curve yet again. I’m in shock at a EURO centric world. EUR/USD must post since that;s what readers want. EUR/NZD paid 276 pips the other day yet few readers, EUR/CAD as well. Forget MXN. Informational articles receive few views. Its 60 + days now for this blog. The questions are what do readers want, what pairs specifically. Any relevant informational articles. Is this blog worth my trouble. Is a website just a headache. Past 300 + trades were all hand calculated and its a nightmare to calculate and ensure perfect accuracy. Do I continue. I don’t know the answers. Or do I continue in my own way and not murder myself. The worst nightmare is breaking through the clutter of junk posted by so so many. They post endless failed trades, incorrect economic data and on and on. Few real pros are out there and report accurate data, trades. I’m thankfully not a member of the ruling cabal. I don’t like them because they are destructive to themselves and everyone else in the trading world nor do they like me. So who knows where it all leads.

Overnight EUR/USD short from 1.1253 saw 1.1202 lows, +51 pips. Lows went further but I can only take credit during the reporting period. Two big points for EUR/USD from my other system, 1.1139 and 1.1158, yesterday I believe 1.1160 and 1.1140.

EUR/USD. Bottom. 1.1147. Range break above 1.1217, Below 1.1190. Overbought sell point 1.1274, Failure point 1.1239. Strategy. Longs above 1.1204, Target 1.1274 then reverse short to 1.1239 and 1.1221. Points on the way up, 1.1207, 1.1210, 1.1225, 1.1239, 1.1257, 1.1274.

Shorts below 1.1202, Target 1.1175. Watch here for reversal to 1.1202 and higher. Points on the way down, 1.1194, 1.1186, 1.1181, 1.1177, 1.1168, 1.1147 Bottom. Point 1.1175 must cross to go higher.

Brian Twomey, Inside the Currency Market, btwomey.com