Same as yesterday as outlined by EUR and GBP pairs. Major levels reported as well as Overbought/ Oversold determinations. Levels and points are not only credible and actionable but they are carefully, carefully calculated to be exact. I offer the 6 major AUD pairs because they are most popular and important to the RBA. The commonality of the 6 pairs is 4 of the 6 pairs are almost exactly the same pairs. Those pairs are AUD/USD, AUD/JPY, AUD/CAD and AUD/CHF. The oddball pairs are AUD/NZD and AUD/GBP. Why AUD/GBP is offered is because it was the first ever pair aligned as an exchange rate 200 years prior to and when Australia became a formal nation in 1901? Australia shares a long long history with AUD/GBP. Secondly, AUD/GBP is close to important breaks so one can understand why GBP/AUD has been kinda dead and range bound for a long time. In AUD/GBP, I will look at reciprocals to GBP/AUD. AUD/CAD is important because its a risk on, risk off indicator. Traditionally, it doesn’t move far and wide. Decade after decade, AUD/CAD can see 300 – 500 pip movements to offer what doesn’t move far and wide means. As well, AUD/CAD is married to AUD/USD and its the second reason to its importance.
AUD/NZD. 1.1872, 1.1762, 1.1143, 1.1033. Nothing special in AUD/NZD. Pre crisis highs at 2.5 saw 0.0770 lows. AUD/NZD has been working its way back from crisis lows.
AUD/CAD. 0.9931, 0.9491, 0.9483, 0.9459, 0.9367, 0.9274. AUD/CAD isn’t overbought or oversold, its a rare day when it is overbought or oversold. Take the breaks as they come.
AUD/CHF. This pair is severely oversold and has great potential as a long trade. From present 0.6600’s, next levels 0.8910, 0.7033, 0.6991. Bottoms are found at 0.6800,0.6697, 0.6527, 0.6351 and crazy oversold 0.6151. Good pair for the radar screen.
AUD/JPY. 89.94, 88.79, 87.64, 87.50, 87.46, 84.00, 81.14. Watch closely 84.00, price is here. This would be a big break and worth taking the short, particularly when EUR/JPY is on the verge of its break at 132’s.
AUD/USD. AUD shorts are getting more and more scary. The bottom is close. I’m looking at 0.6532 so far as bottom. After 0.6532 then we go into degrees of oversold. Important points: 0.7242, 0.7343, 0.7828.
AUD/GBP. From current 0.4600’s, 0.4926, 0.4746, 0.4726, 0.4717. All are vital breaks. The reciprocal to GBP/AUD is 2.0300, 2.1070, 2.1159, 2.1199. Current GBP/AUD is 2.1542. Any rises in GBP/AUD means more overbought.
Brian Twomey, Inside the Currency Market, btwomey.com