Inside the Currency Market: MXN, BRL, CLP

MXN achieved 17.0975 highs and lifetime highs never before seen dating to 1950’s. USD/BRL at current 3.9726 is also lifetime highs and also dated to 1950’s. BRL’s September monthly average was 3.8690 and 3.5113 for August. USD/CLP (Chile) at current 701.40 was last seen August 2003. The August monthly average was 701.77. In 1975, the monthly USD/CLP average was 4.91. The lifetime highs for CLP is 763.70. Only 13 times has CLP seen 700 exchange rates and that was the period from August 2002 – June 2003 when price ranged between 700.00 – 763.00. CLP is important because its a Copper currency since the vast majority of the world’s Copper derives from Chile. Current Copper price at 2.279 is at the lower end of the 1 year range between 2.228 -3.119.

MXN price July 2014 was 12.9755, today lifetime highs were seen at 17.0975. September’s monthly average is 16.8011 and 16.5437 for August. September 2014, MXN monthly average is 13.2336, August 2008 is 10.1030 and September 1983 is 0.1364. USD/CLP Monthly average in August 1983 is 89.46 while USD/BRL in August 1983 is 0.0409. The continuous 40 year uptrend in MXN, BRL and CLP appears to be rolling ahead particularly MXN.

August monthly Inflation runs 0.21, 2.59 annual while Core runs 0.20 and 2.30 annual. 83% Mexico exports are shipped to the United States. Economically, Mexico is doing fine despite many political problems. The ruling PRI Party under Pena Nieto have like a 30 approval rating, the Finance Minister- Luis Videgaray, Pena and his wife are under accusations from ‘funny” house purchases from a Mexican government contractor.

The importance to MXN is its a forward indicator to EUR/USD and a far better insight than USD/CHF, USD/CAD or even USD/JPY because the Bank of Mexico sets prices long before the Euro.

MXN. Bottom. 16.8747. Range break above 17.0018 and 17.0442, Below 16.9171, 16.7899. Overbought sell point 17.1011, failure point 17.0154. Strategy. Longs above 16.9594, Target 17.1011 then reverse short to 17.0302, at 17.0154 failure point then short to 16.9874. Points on the way up, 17.0103, 17.0154, 17.1011.

Shorts below 16.9594, Target 16.9170. Watch here for reversal to 16.9594. Points on the way down, 16.9450, 16.9425, 16.8747 Bottom.

Brian Twomey, Inside the Currency Market, btwomey.com

Inside the Currency Market: GBP/USD

After weeks without a view to GBP, I decided to look again for possible opportunities in the future. GBP/USD at current 1.5171 is contained inside big breakout points between 1.5299 – 1.5049. In the larger GBP picture, it has every ability to fly and fly far and wide as the ranges are 1000 pips wide. Ranges gaped open far wider since the last view. Last view GBP was severely contained inside a 200 pip range from 1.5400 – 1.5600 thereabouts. I decided then to leave GBP alone until the situation changed. Also in last view was the “Pricing In” of a rate hike and the higher wage data to help the 1.5400 – 1.5600 containment. What changed in GBP was the economic front.

Wage growth is now lower by 1%, Unit Labor Costs are lower, price rises are moving much slower. Inflation is expected to achieve 2 % Target in 2 years from current 1% and the BOE Minutes reports Energy, Food and Imports are containing Inflation at lower levels. GDP is running at 2.6% annual, 0.7 for Q2 2015. Business and Finance are leading contributors to GDP growth while Construction is zero all year and has only seen positive 0.6 in Q 4 2014. Manufacturing is essentially zero and was last positive at 0.1 Q2 2014. Slower Imports as the Minutes stated was due to a higher GBP. But the UK never had a positive Trade Balance, its was always skewed. Trading Economics reports last positive Trade Balance was 1998. Services is what drives UK GDP as even Agriculture was down 0.7 and hasn’t seen positive in quite some time. Most important is a rate hike is no longer seen, less than a 20% chance based on current OIS Rates. Only argument for a rate hike is to possibly help push prices and Inflation higher but that argument is losing among the BOE Board.

GBP/USD. Bottom. 1.5099. Range break above 1.5299, Below 1.3049 and 1.5023. Overbought sell point 1.5222. Strategy. Longs above 1.5174, Target 1.5222 then reverse short to 1.5194. Points on the way up, 1.5178, 1.5180, 1.5186, 1.5212, 1.5222.

Shorts below 1.5174, Target 1.5136. Watch here for reversal to 1.5174. Points on the way down, 1.5160, 1.5155, 1.5142, 1.5139, 1.5119, 1.5099 Bottom. Point 1.5136 must cross to go higher.

Brian Twomey, Inside the Currency Market, btwomey.com

Inside the Currency Market: DXY

Last week’s DXY commentary based on Yellen’s no raise of Fed Funds was a bullish call through normalization for DXY and was correct. Last week’s larger DXY range at a 95.36 close price was found between 86.96 – 104.55. This week’s larger range at a 96.37 close price is found between 87.88 – 105.66. DXY from weekly close to close saw a 101 pip rise as the bottom side jumped 92 pips and 20 pips in the entire distribution. DXY found support as Libor dropped from 1375 to now normal 1360, 1 and 3 month yields went negative and pertinent USD interest rates dropped severely as Yellen’s rate hike was “Priced In”.

I see DXY higher over time yet I also see Trade problems emerge between and among nations as a DXY rise decimates those currencies as USD/Other Currency. Asia, Africa, South America and the Middle East all will be affected with a severely lower currency price Vs DXY. Its net positive for those currencies to Export yet net negative in economic terms. The only example historically is found in the 1930’s as that decade was labeled Currency Wars but was actually Trade Wars as all major nations currency prices were decimated due to WW 1 and a high DXY.

Big supports below for DXY are found at 92.31, 91.55 and 90.32, Above Resistance 100.59, 101.43 and 102.89. Immediate terms, supports below 96.02, 95.52, 95.40, Above 96.70 and 97.21.

DXY. Bottom. 95.88. Range break above 96.70, 97.21, Below 96.02, 95.52 and 95.40. Overbought sell point 97.51, Failure point 96.84. Strategy. Longs above 96.36, Target 96.84 then reverse short to 96.60. Points on the way up, 96.45, 96.49, 96.77, 96.84, 97.35, 97.45, 97.51.

Shorts below 96.36, Target 96.12. Watch here for reversal to 96.36. Points on the way down, 96.32, 96.18, 96.03, 95.88 Bottom. Point 96.12 must cross to go higher.

Brian Twomey, Inside the Currency Market, btwomey.com

Inside the Currency Market: EUR/USD

Morning tradees, EUR/USD Long from 1.1150, Target 1.1205 Dead Stopped 1.1207, Reverse short to 1.1177 Dead Stopped 1.1178, Longs + 57, Shorts + 29, Total + 86 pips. EUR/CAD Longs 1.4844, Target 1.4917 Dead Stopped 1.4923, off 6 pips then shorts to 1.4880 Dead Stopped 1.4893 so far, Longs + 79, Shorts + 30, total + 109, Total for this morning, + 195 Pips, 2 trades, 2 hours about.

EUR/USD Below covers Sunday night Asia as well.

EUR/USD. Bottom. 1.1139. Range break above 1.1195, 1.1220, Below 1.1168, 1.1083. Overbought sell point 1.1249, Failure point 1.1232. Strategy. Longs above 1.1194, target 1.1249 then reverse to 1.1221. Watch vital 1.1220 range point.Points on the way up, 1.1202, 1.1210, 1.1217, 1.1224, 1.1232, 1.1240, 1.1249.

Shorts below 1.1194, Target 1.1166. Watch for reversal here to 1.1194. Points on the way down, 1.1189, 1.1181, 1.1178, 1.1170, 1.1154, 1.1139 Bottom. Point 1.1166 must cross to go higher.

More Trades posted here over weekend, working on US Trade Data Information for interested, Imports exceed exports over long time in US, Canada and Mexico lead the way. Soybeans still a major major and export to Asia, Canada car part Imports picking up but competing with Mexico. 80% + Mexico export head to US. More in post over weekend.

Brian Twomey, Inside the Currency Market, btwomey.com

Inside the Currency Market: EUR/CAD

EUR/CAD. Bottom. 1.4770. Range break above 1.4879, Below 1.4809 and 1.4696. Overbought sell point 1.4917, Failure point 1.4895. Strategy. Longs above 1.4844, Target 1.4917 then reverse to 1.4880. Points on the way up, 1.4849, 1.4854, 1.4874, 1.4884, 1.4895, 1.4917.

Shorts below 1.4844, Target 1.4807. Watch here for reversal to 1.4844. Points on the way down, 1.4843, 1.4827, 1.4822, 1.4817, 1.4812, 1.4791, 1.4770 Bottom. Point 1.4807 must cross to go higher.

Brian Twomey Inside the Currency Market, btwomey.com

Inside the Currency Market: EUR/USD

Last evening EUR/USD shorts below 1.1181 broke 1.1153 and continued to bottom at 1.1116 for total + 65 pips. USD/CHF dashed to top at 0.9843, top was reported at 0.9840 and 0.9860. Reversal at reported 0.9776 dead stopped at 0.9777. Point 0.9776 was range point, held perfectly. No mysteries, we saw it all coming long before.

EUR/USD. Bottom. 1.1095. Range break above 1.1176, Below 1.1124, 1.1039. Overbought sell point 1.1205, Failure point 1.1188. Strategy. Longs above 1.1150, Target 1.1205 then reverse short to 1.1177. Points on the way up, 1.1158, 1.1173, 1.1188, 1.1205.

Shorts below 1.1150, Target 1.1122. Watch here for reversal to 1.1150. Points on the way down, 1.1149, 1.1141, 1.1134, 1.1126, 1.1111, 1.1095 Bottom. Point 1.1122 must cross to go higher and target 1.1150.

Brian Twomey, Inside the Currency Market, btwomey.com

Inside the Currency Market: EUR/USD

Rare to see last Bottom break at 1.1184. Bottoms break on news events normally due because they are so solid and carefully calculated. The Yellen fall then a hawkish speech on a 2015 rate hike promise was enough to send EUR/USD through the bottom. More downside should be seen in days ahead.

Many thank you’s to new readers, traders and friends at fxstreet. Welcome new readers from trading floor. I see nations only nothing else in terms of views. We’re growing and I thank all very much. The trades here are calculated perfect, perfect targets, perfect levels, perfect ranges. Anyone can bank on these trades, I do. Never a loss here, never never a loss. Always profits on every trade and trades, plural.

EUR/USD. Bottom. 1.1126. Range break above 1.1207, Below 1.1155, 1.1070. Overbought sell point 1.1238, Failure point 1.1222. Strategy. Longs above 1.1181, Target 1.1238 then reverse short to 1.1210. Points on the way up, 1.1190, 1.1206, 1.1222, 1.1230, 1.1238.

Shorts below 1.1181, Target 1.1153. Watch here for reversal higher. Points on the way down, 1.1178, 1.1174, 1.1166, 1.1158, 1.1142, 1.1126 Bottom. Point 1.1153 must cross to go higher.

Brian Twomey, Inside the Currency Market, btwomey.com

Inside the Currency Market: USD/CHF

The commonality in our currency pairs is ranges tightened at the front end of the curve. We saw this in EUR/USD, EUR/CAD and EUR/GBP this morning but we knew from past days tightening ranges was coming so no mysteries in the range regards.

When last we visited CHF we highlighted CHF/EUR at 0.9100 and CHF/USD at 1.0300. CHF/USD is way to high in relation to CHF/EUR and other SNB pairs. USD must go higher in order for CHF/USD to sustain those same levels as CHF/EUR.

The immediate range levels for USD/CHF are 0.9776, 0.9706 and 0.9656. Above 0.9827 and 0.9912. The immediate target is found at 0.9790. USD/CHF over the whole distribution of prices reveals USD/CHF is heading higher.

USD/CHF. Bottom. 0.9693. Range break above 0.9776, 0.9827, Below 0.9706, 0.9656. Overbought sell point 0.9790 and 0.9807, 0.9818, 0.9840. Strategy. Longs above 0.9742, Target 0.9790, 0.9807, 0.9818. Further out and current top, 0.9860. At 0.9790, short reverse to 0.9766. Points on the way up, 0.9754, 0.9758, 0.9770, 0.9782, 0.9794, 0.9807.

Shorts below 0.9741, Target 0.9717. Watch here for reversal to 0.9741. Points on the way down, 0.9740, 0.9737, 0.9731, 0.9725, 0.9709 and Range break 0.9706, 0.9693 Bottom. Point 0.9717 must cross to go higher but watch for hold then USD/CHF higher.

Brian Twomey, Inside the Currency Market, btwomey.com

Inside the Currency Market: EUR/USD

This morning, Long EUR/USD 1.1241 hit perfect target 1.1296, then reverse to 1.1218 saw 1.1237, Longs + 55, shorts + 59, total +114. EUR/CAD Long 1.5039, Target hit perfectly at 1.5114 then reverse to 1.5076, + 75 longs, + 38 shorts, total + 114. EUR/GBP, Long 0.7387, Target hit perfectly at 0.7412 + 25 then reverse to 0.7399 saw another +13 pips. Total + 38. Total pips this morning + 266 pips.

EUR moves were seen yesterday and today in multiple posts, long end is dropping, Mid section compressing, front end calling the shots. Same story, sell rallies, no trend is here, just up and down moves with overall direction down.

EUR/USD. Bottom. 1.1184. Range break above 1.1266, Below 1.1214. Overbought sell point 1.1297, Failure point 1.1281. Strategy. Longs above 1.1241, Target 1.1297. Then reverse short to 1.1269. Points on the way up, 1.1249, 1.1257, 1.1265, 1.1281, 1.1297.

Shorts below 1.1240, Target 1.1212. Watch here for reversal to 1.1240. Points on the way down, 1.1236, 1.1224, 1.1220, 1.1216, 1.1200, 1.1184 Bottom. point 1.1212 must cross to go higher.

Brian Twomey, Inside the Currency Market, btwomey.com

Inside the Currency Market: EUR/GBP

EUR/GBP. Bottom. 0.7350. Range break above 0.7395, Below 0.7378. Overbought sell point 0.7426, Failure point 0.7412. Strategy. Longs above 0.7386, Target 0.7426 then reverse short to 0.7406. Points on the way up, 0.7392, 0.7402, 0.7412, 0.7423, 0.7426.

Shorts below 0.7386, Target 0.7368. Watch here for reversal to 0.7386. Points on the way down, 0.7388, 0.7381, 0.7376, 0.7371, 0.7360, 0.7350 Bottom. Point 0.7368 must cross to go higher.

Brian Twomey, Inside the Currency Market, btwomey.com

Inside the Currency Market: EUR/CAD

EUR/CAD. Bottom. 1.4963. Range break above 1.5055, Below 1.5020. Overbought sell point 1.5114, Failure point 1.5091. Strategy. Longs above 1.5038, Target 1.5114 then reverse short to 1.5076, at 1.5091 Failure point then short to 1.5065. Points on the way up, 1.5050, 1.5060, 1.5070, 1.5080, 1.5091, 1.5114. Violation point if seen is 1.5134.

Shorts below 1.5037, Target 1.5000. Watch for reversal here to 1.5037. Points on the way down, 1.5027, 1.5021, 1.5016, 1.5011, 1.5006, 1.4984, 1.4963 Bottom. Point 1.5000 must cross to go higher. Price oversold at 1.4963.

Brian Twomey, Inside the Currency Market, btwomey.com

Inside the Currency Market: EUR/USD

Last night EUR/USD trade hit perfect targets, long from 1.1167 to 1.1223 + 56 then reverse short to 1.1195 hit 1.1193 for +28 more, total + 84, took 6 hours to get this done, normally done much sooner.

EUR/USD. Bottom. 1.1184. Range break above 1.1253, Below 1.1227. Overbought sell point 1.1296, Failure point 1.1280. Strategy. Long above 1.1240, Target 1.1296 then reverse short to 1.1218, at 1.1280 Failure point then short to 1.1161. Points on the way up, 1.1249, 1.1256, 1.1264, 1.1272, 1.1280, 1.1296.

Shorts below 1.1240, Target 1.1212. Watch here for reversal to 1.1240. Points on the way down, 1.1232, 1.1228, 1.1220, 1.1216, 1.1200, 1.1184 Bottom. Point 1.1212 must cross to go higher.

Brian Twomey Inside the Currency Market, btwomey.com

Inside the Currency Market: EUR/USD

RUR/USD is in the same position as this afternoon. Its caught between ranges, 1.1192 above and 1.1140 below. Both must be monitored.

EUR/USD. Bottom. 1.1111. Range break above 1.1192, Below 1.1140. Overbought sell point 1.1223, Failure point 1.1208. Strategy. Longs above 1.1167, Target 1.1223 then reverse short to 1.1195, at 1.1208 Failure point then reverse short to 1.1187. Points on the way up, 1.1177, 1.1192, 1.1208, 1.1215, 1.1223. Target assumes range break at 1.1192, could see failure at 1.1192.

Shorts below 1.1166, Target 1.1138. Watch for reversal here to 1.1166. Points on the way down, 1.1153, 1.1141, 1.1134, 1.1126, 1.1118, 1.1111 Bottom. Point 1.1138 must cross to go higher. Watch 1.1140 Range break.

Brian Twomey, Inside the Currency Market, btwomey.com

Inside the Currency Market: EUR/USD

EUR/USD. Target this morning was reported 1.1209, forgotten written Failure point was 1.1194, price dead stopped 1.1190 and reversed to 1.1133. Price broke morning range above at 1.1162.

What decides EUR/USD next leg is ranges again, above 1.1193 and below 1.1141. Range Point 1.1162 from this morning becomes meaningless.

EUR/USD. Bottom. 1.1112. Range break above 1.1193, Below 1.1141. Overbought sell point 1.1214, Failure point 1.1209. Strategy. Longs above 1.1167, Target 1.1214 then reverse short to 1.1190, at 1.1209 Failure then short to 1.1188. Points on the way up, 1.1178, 1.1185, 1.1193, 1.1209, 1.1214. Watch 1.1193 Range point, could see price failure if so reverse short to 1.1181. Could see higher target at 1.1226. Covering angles here.

Short below 1.1167, Target 1.1139, Points on the way down, 1.1163, 1.1160, 1.1152, 1.1145, 1.1135, 1.1128, 1.1112 Bottom. Point 1.1139 must cross to go higher.

Brian Twomey, Inside the Currency Market, btwomey.com

Inside the Currency Market: EUR/USD

EUR/USD Dead stopped overnight at reported range point 1.1154 then reversed past 1.1133 target to 1.1107. I’m taking credit for 40+ above and + 20 below for + 60 total. Trade was done in less than 2 hours. EUR/CAD Dead stopped at reported point 1.4806 then reversed past 1.4811 to 1.4725. No readers for EUR/CAD but this pair pays big and moves beautifully. And money is earned very quickly. The EUR/USD, EUR/CAD and USD/CAD combos earn tons of money for interested. And my stuff is perfect and exact so no losses.

No post this afternoon. Back early evening.

EUR/USD ranges are tightening, now we must be careful. Rallies are still to sell. Long end curve continues to drop, mid section continues to compress for shorts and front end decides all price action. Range today 60 pips, should see decent movements compared to last few days.

EUR/USD. Bottom. 1.1094. Range break above 1.1162, 1.1214, Below 1.1136, 1.1084. Watch ranges closely. Overbought sell point 1.1209. assumes 1.1162 range break, careful. Strategy. Longs above 1.1150, Target 1.1209 then reverse to 1.1179. Points on the way up, 1.1155, 1.1162, 1.1178, 1.1194, 1.1209.

Shorts below 1.1149, Target 1.1121. Watch for reversal here to 1.1149. Points on the way down, 1.1147, 1.1144, 1.1140, 1.1136, 1.1128, 1.1124, 1.1109, 1.1094 Bottom. Point 1.1121 must cross to go higher.

Brian Twomey, Inside the Currency Market, btwomey.com

Inside the Currency Market: EUR/USD

EUR/USD. Bottom. 1.1059. Range break above 1.1153, 1.1179, Below 1.1074, 1.1049. Overbought sell point 1.1175, Failure point 1.1160. Watch for failures and reverse at range point 1.1153. Strategy. Longs above 1.1114, Target 1.1175 then reverse short to 1.1145. From range point 1.1153, short to 1.1133. Points on the way up, 1.1126, 1.1134, 1.1143, 1.1151, 1.1160, 1.1167, 1.1175.

Shorts below 1.1113, Target 1.1085. Watch here for reversal to 1.1113. Points on the way down, 1.1109, 1.1104, 1.1101, 1.1096, 1.1092, 1.1075, 1.1059 Bottom. Point 1.1085 must cross to go higher and target 1.1113.

Brian Twomey, Inside the Currency Market, btwomey.com

Inside the Currency Market: EUR/CAD

EUR/CAD. Bottom. 1.4686. Range break above 1.4811, 1.4845, Below 1.4706, 1.4672. Overbought sell point 1.4841, failure point 1.4821. Strategy. Longs above 1.4759, Target 1.4841 then reverse to 1.4800 and 1.4790. Points on the way up, 1.4766, 1.4775, 1.4786, 1.4798, 1.4811, 1.4821, 1.4831, 1.4841, 1.4851, 1.4861.

Shorts below 1.1.4758, Target 1.4722. Watch for reversal here to 1.4758. Points on the way down, 1.4753,1.4748, 1.4742, 1.4736, 1.4730, 1.4708, 1.4686 Bottom. Point 1.4722 must break to go higher.

Brian Twomey, Inside the Currency Market, btwomey.com

Inside the Currency Market: EUR/USD

Okay, last days, 1.1250 failed at 1.1252, 1.1313 failed at 1.1329, this morning 1.1155 failed at 1.1168. Failures happened Long before even the failure targets. Same story as mentioned days ago, the mid section gap was closing fast and its what gave us the few failures yet it also gave us terrific shorts since what 1.1400′. The gap is still on the way to closure which means rallies will continue to be shallow. A further aspect to shorts is the break below the tough consolidation points in the mid 1.1200’s. With those breaks, its drove down the upper resistance points and created more so 1.1200;s for now is far far away. We want to monitor points in long trades.

EUR/USD. Bottom. 1.1062. Range break above 1.1156, 1.1182, Below 1.1077, 1.1052. Overbought sell point 1.1179, Failure point 1.1164, careful of range points 1.1156, easy to see failure here and short reverse. Strategy. Longs above 1.1117, Target 1.1164 then reverse to 1.1140 and at 1.1179 reverse to 1.1148. Points on the way up, 1.1129, 1.1137, 1.1146, 1.1155, 1.1164, 1.1179.

Shorts below 1.1116, Target 1.1089. Watch here for reversal to 1.1116. Points on the way down, 1.1113, 1.1108, 1.1104, 1.1099, 1.1095, 1.1078, 1.1062 Bottom. Point 1.1089 must cross to go higher to target 1.1116.

Brian Twomey, Inside the Currency Market, btwomey.com

Inside the Currency Market: EUR/USD

EUR/USD. Bottom. 1.1099. Range break above 1.1167, 1.1246, Below 1.1141, 1.1063. Tight ranges. Overbought sell point 1.1214. Strategy. Longs above 1.1155, Target 1.1214, Failure point 1.1196. Then reverse short to 1.1184 and from 1.1196 reverse to 1.1175. Points on the way up,1.1164, 1.1180, 1.1188, 1.1196, 1.1211, 1.1226.

Shorts below 1.1154, Target 1.1126. Watch here for reversal to 1.1154. Points on the way down, 1.1147, 1.1139, 1.1131, 1.1115, 1.1099 Bottom. Point 1.1126 must cross to go higher to target 1.1154. Bottom holds then long again to 1.1126.

Last 2 long trades failed few pips above entry, we want to monitor points for long failures to reverse short.

Brian Twomey, Inside the Currency Market, btwomey.com

Market Risk and GOLD/SILVER Ratios

Since late August, USD/JPY and JPY/USD V Gold/Silver and Silver/Gold Ratios decoupled as JPY/USD followed higher the GOLD/Silver route while USD/JPY went Silver/ Gold. If ever a confusing market message was seen, its found in the JPY relationships to Gold Silver. USD/JPY in correct markets takes the route of GOLD/SILVER.

EUR/JPY followed the correct path as EUR/JPY followed perfectly Silver/Gold while JPY/EUR went Gold/Silver. EUR/JPY as a historic risk measure and most widely traded of all cross pairs provided yet again the early warning and alert to the next market move. Of all the cross pairs measured as Risk on /Risk off, EUR/JPY was again the market leader as EUR/JPY and JPY/EUR saw an immediate breakout from its severe compression.

AUD/CAD as another historic risk measure remains compressed and stuck in a tiny channel as CAD/AUD and AUD/CAD. The market message is risk is balanced viewed from both pairs.

The remainder Risk On / Risk Off measures CAD/ZAR, ZAR/CAD, EUR/CHF and CAD/JPY reveal the same balanced Risks as AUD/CAD. What is seen from these pairs is risks are balanced yet what is seen from EUR/JPY is the next trade, the next market move. AUD/CAD compression reveals a breakout is coming while the remainder pairs trade far above and below both Silver/GOLD and Gold/Silver. The message is markets aren’t expected to crash but rather will trade in current normal movements.

Brian Twomey, Inside the Currency Market, btwomey.com