Inside the Currency Market: EUR/USD

Non Farm Payroll data on site for interested, 199.10 and 203 are numbers to beat above or range becomes 199.10 – 178 — 158.

Afternoon trade saw 20 pip range since 1:00 post. Big numbers below remain 1.1137 and 1.1161. Break 1.1161 gains short speed while 1.1137 must break to 1.1000 and 1.0900’s.

EUR/USD. Bottom. 1.1134. Range break above 1.1305, Below 1.1077. Overbought sell point 1.1235, Failure point 1.1209. Strategy. Long above 1.1191, Target 1.1235 then reverse short to 1.1213. Points on the way up, 1.1194, 1.1200, 1.1209, 1.1222, 1.1235.

Shorts below 1.1190, Target 1.1162. Watch for reversal to 1.1190 and higher.points on the way down, 1.1185, 1.1172, 1.1163, 1.1149, 1.1134 Bottom. Point 1.1162 must cross to go higher. Be aware 1.1161.

Brian Twomey, Inside the Currency Market, btwomey.com

Non Farm Payroll: SEPT 2015

173 was last month’s Non Farm Payroll, 203 is expected this month. 203 is the median of the 5 year average. The 5 year simple average is 199.10. The range on the 5 year average is roughly 82,000. That’s 281 above and 116 below from 199.10. But further Medians at the 10, 20 and 25 year averages are located just below at 148, 157 and 158. That places the bottom side range between 158 – 199.10. The number to beat is 199 and its a 5 year average. To beat 199 places the topside range between 199 and 203 — 230 and 233. The next median is 230 above and next average above at 233. Next average above is the 2 year. The 5 year average begins the last negative month reported, that’s 60 months of positive overall job gains. Yet to beat 199 and 203 won’t be easy. its a rare day when these averages break.

The 1 year average is 243.25, 2 year 233.8750, 5 year at 199.10 and 25 year as the next most significant average is located at 108.5681. To see perfect alignment of the 1, 2 and 5 year averages, then job gains must be seen at 168.90, 164.22 and 116.31. So far, 199 and 203 is not seen ready to break. The average range of the 5 year average is 47,000. A positive aspect is previous Non Farm Payroll forecasts derived from the 10 year average, now we’re looking at 5 year averages.

What’s scary regarding all averages is significant peaks are seen in all averages from 1 year to the 25 year. Averages from 1 – 5 year record 3.4 – 3.65 while the 10, 15 and 20 year averages record 5.46 – 6.5. Total private Seasonally Adjusted averages from 1 year to 10 also reveal significant Peaks as well.

Last month’s job gains were seen in 8,000 Real Estate, 41,000 healthcare employees and 9,000 Social Assistance workers. 9,000 more Social Assistance employees were added to expend food stamps to the current 8.1 million unemployed and down from 9.5 million since the start of 2015. Manufacturing and Mining is still down. Consider the United States Imports more than exports and Exports accounts for a vast majority of Financials and services.

Since consensus at 203 is never seen and rough resistance exists above, 199 and 203 are the numbers to beat. We should probably look at actual forecast between 158 – 199. Its possible to see forecast in the vicinity between 178 – 199. That wouldn’t be terrible since it would suggest the US is still trundling along, not gaining but not losing.

Brian Twomey, Inside the Currency Market, btwomey.com

Inside the Currency Market: EUR/USD

Morning trades. EUR/USD. Long 1.1152, target 1.1213 Dead stopped 1.1209, +57, then shorts to stated 1.1183 dead stopped 1.1189, + 26, Total pips + 83. EUR/AUD. Long from 1.5778, Target 1.5862 Dead stopped 1.5938, + 160 pips. EUR/CAD. Short 1.4779 first Dead Stopped 1.4763, my point 1.4761 then went long to 1.4860, short of reported 1.4879. + 59 Long, + 35 short, total 94 pips. Total pips 3 trades, 2 hours = 337 Pips.

EUR/USD. Bottom. 1.1132. Range break above 1.1303, 1.1463, Below 1.1075. Overbought sell point 1.1233, Failure point 1.1207. Strategy. Long above 1.1191, Target 1.1233 then reverse short to 1.1212. Points on the way up, 1.1198, 1.1207, 1.1220, 1.1223.

Shors below 1.1188, Target 1.1160. Watch here for reversal to 1.1188 and higher. Points on the way down, 1.1176, 1.1171, 1.1165, 1.1155, 1.1147, 1.1132 Bottom. Point 1.1160 must cross to go higher.

Major points 1.1138 and 1.1161 for longer term views.

Brian Twomey, Inside the Currency Market, btwomey.com

Inside the Currency Market: EUR/CAD

EUR/CAD. Bottom. 1.4724. Range break above 1.4937, 1.4972, Below 1.4662, 1.4627. Overbought sell point 1.4879, Failure point 1.4837. Strategy. Longs above 1.4880, Target 1.4879 then reverse short to 1.4829, 1.4808. Points on the way up, 1.4801, 1.4803, 1.4820, 1.4837, 1.4858, 1.4879.

Shorts below 1.4798, Target 1.4761. Watch here for reversal to 1.4798 and higher. Points on the way down, 1.4791, 1.4782, 1.4772, 1.4763, 1.4752, 1.4743, 1.4724 Bottom. Point 1.4761 must cross to go higher.

Brian Twomey, Inside the Currency Market, btwomey.com

Inside the Currency Market: EUR/AUD

Quickly. ISM at 10″00

EUR/AUD. Bottom. 1.5697. Range break above 1.5924, 1.5961, Below 1.5631. Overbought sell point 1.5862, Failure point 1.5818. Strategy. Longs above 1.5778, Target 1.5862 then reverse to 1.5819 and 1.5798. Points on the way up, 1.5782, 1.5790, 1.5818, 1.5840, 1.5862.

Shorts below 1.5776, Target 1.5737. Watch here for reversal to 1.5776 and higher. Points on the way down,1.5769, 1.5758, 1.5748, 1.5738, 1.5727, 1.5717, 1.5697 Bottom. Point 1.5737 must cross to go higher.

Brian Twomey, Inside the Currency Market, btwomey.com

Inside the Currency Market: EUR/USD

Forgot last night, +40, 50 whatever. We earn and don’t ever lose. Point 1.1137 violated last night to 1.1134. Today points are 1.1138 and 1.1158.

With automation, I may post tons and tons of EUR pairs.

EUR/USD. Bottom.1.1096. Range break above 1.1257, 1.1283, Below 1.1049, 1.1024. Overbought sell point 1.1213, Failure point 1.1182. Strategy. Longs above 1.1152, Target 1.1213 then reverse to 1.1183. Points on the way up,1.1156, 1.1169, 1.1182, 1.1197, 1.1213.

Shorts below 1.1152, Target 1.1124. Watch here for reversal to 1.1152 and higher. Points on the way down, 1.1147, 1.1140, 1.1133, 1.1125, 1.1117, 1.1110, 1.1096 Bottom. Point 1.1124 must cross to go higher.

Brian Twomey Inside the Currency Market, btwomey.com

Inside the Currency Market: 5 JPY Pairs Major Points

All Yen pairs are on the verge of big breaks below, all pairs are oversold as prices sit on major supports below. The most important JPY pair is EUR/JPY because its a market leader as most widely traded. Since 2001, EUR/JPY earned the market leader distinction and it holds today. If EUR/JPY breaks below, all JPY pairs break below. The reason EUR/JPY hasn’t broke is due to the huge significance to the break.

EUR/JPY is unsure where it stands, its a market indecision at work. EUR/JPY Correlation with USD/JPY runs 0.53 or 53% and 0.23 or 23% Vs EUR/USD. A 25% variation exists in an unexplained price and that’s just factored to a simple correlation. The variation is actually far wider than 25% to look deeply into further Statistics. Every price movement in EUR/JPY has no significance. Its floating and wandering, its price is meaningless.

The price break below at 132 would set the stage for the next period into how currency prices will trade but more important is how will pairs align Vs each other. Its called a Realignment and a rare rare occurrence in currency trading. We’ve been on the verge of realignment for many many months but it hasn’t happened yet. Not until EUR/JPY breaks will we know yet if EUR/JPY breaks below today at 131 then it weakens its correlation to EUR/USD which means formal risk off markets will define the new period. Weaken means at current prices, EUR/USD still shares a 0.02 correlation which is still positive. At 130 EUR/JPY and current EUR/USD and USD/JPY prices, the Correlation turns formally negative vs EUR/USD. That should mean EUR/USD will have ability to go lower, USD/JPY higher.

AUD/JPY. 84.00

NZD/JPY. 75.04, 73.89

CHF/JPY. 125.27, 127.77

CAD/JPY 88.64, 89.79, 92.58 above.

USD/JPY 120.95.

EUR/JPY. 132.52, 131.32 Vs 134.96, 136.35

Brian Twomey, Inside the Currency Market, btwomey.com