Non Farm Payroll: SEPT 2015

173 was last month’s Non Farm Payroll, 203 is expected this month. 203 is the median of the 5 year average. The 5 year simple average is 199.10. The range on the 5 year average is roughly 82,000. That’s 281 above and 116 below from 199.10. But further Medians at the 10, 20 and 25 year averages are located just below at 148, 157 and 158. That places the bottom side range between 158 – 199.10. The number to beat is 199 and its a 5 year average. To beat 199 places the topside range between 199 and 203 — 230 and 233. The next median is 230 above and next average above at 233. Next average above is the 2 year. The 5 year average begins the last negative month reported, that’s 60 months of positive overall job gains. Yet to beat 199 and 203 won’t be easy. its a rare day when these averages break.

The 1 year average is 243.25, 2 year 233.8750, 5 year at 199.10 and 25 year as the next most significant average is located at 108.5681. To see perfect alignment of the 1, 2 and 5 year averages, then job gains must be seen at 168.90, 164.22 and 116.31. So far, 199 and 203 is not seen ready to break. The average range of the 5 year average is 47,000. A positive aspect is previous Non Farm Payroll forecasts derived from the 10 year average, now we’re looking at 5 year averages.

What’s scary regarding all averages is significant peaks are seen in all averages from 1 year to the 25 year. Averages from 1 – 5 year record 3.4 – 3.65 while the 10, 15 and 20 year averages record 5.46 – 6.5. Total private Seasonally Adjusted averages from 1 year to 10 also reveal significant Peaks as well.

Last month’s job gains were seen in 8,000 Real Estate, 41,000 healthcare employees and 9,000 Social Assistance workers. 9,000 more Social Assistance employees were added to expend food stamps to the current 8.1 million unemployed and down from 9.5 million since the start of 2015. Manufacturing and Mining is still down. Consider the United States Imports more than exports and Exports accounts for a vast majority of Financials and services.

Since consensus at 203 is never seen and rough resistance exists above, 199 and 203 are the numbers to beat. We should probably look at actual forecast between 158 – 199. Its possible to see forecast in the vicinity between 178 – 199. That wouldn’t be terrible since it would suggest the US is still trundling along, not gaining but not losing.

Brian Twomey, Inside the Currency Market, btwomey.com

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