Inside the Currency Market: EUR/NZD

EUR/NZD. Bottom. 1.7110. Range break above 1.7297, Below 1.7095. Overbought sell point 1.7297, failure point 1.7252. Strategy. Long above 1.7196, target 1.7297 then reverse to 1.7246 and 1.7224. Points on the way up, 1.7201, 1.7206, 1.7229, 1.7252, 1.7274, 1.7297.

Shorts below 1.7195, Target 1.7153. Watch here for reversal to 1.7195 and higher. Points on the way down, 1.7192, 1.7181, 1.7169, 1.7158, 1.7131, 1.7110 Bottom. Point 1.7163 must cross to go higher.

Brian Twomey, Inside the Currency Market, btwomey.com

Inside the Currency Market: EUR/USD

Afternoon trades. EUR/GBP 0.7404 – 0.7394, 10 pip range, not much here. EUR/NZD short 1.7230 –1.7192, +47 pips, EUR/USD from 1.1269 saw 1.1279 and 1.1261, 19 pip total range. Not much here either. We’ll add EUR/NZD along with EUR/USD as part of the EUR routine.

EUR/USD. Bottom. 1.1210. Range break above 1.1333, Below 1.1201. Overbought sell point 1.1333, Failure point 1.1303. Careful, sell point equals range break. Strategy, longs above 1.1268, target 1.1333 then reverse short to 1.1300, at 1.1303 then reverse 1.1288. Points on the way up,1.1274, 1.1279, 1.1288, 1.1303, 1.1318, 1.1333.

Shorts below 1.1267, Target 1.1238. Watch here for reversal to 1.1267 and higher. Points on the way down, 1.1264, 1.1257, 1.1249, 1.1242, 1.1238, 1.1224, 1.1210 Bottom. Point 1.1238 must cross to go higher.

EUR/NZD next

Brian Twomey, Inside the Currency Market, btwomey.com

Inside the Currency Market: EUR/GBP

EUR/GBP. Bottom. 0.7362. Range break above 0.7442, 0.7667, Below 0.7355. Overbought sell point 0.7442, Failure point 0.7423. Watch 0.7442 is range point, same deal as EUR/USD and EUR/NZD. Strategy. Longs above 0.7400, Target 0.7442 then reverse short to 0.7421. Points on the way up, 0.7407, 0.7413, 0.7423, 0.7432, 0.7442.

Shorts below 0.7398, Target 0.7380. Watch here for reversal to 0.7398 and higher. Points on the way down, 0.7392, 0.7387, 0.7382, 0.7371, 0.7362 Bottom. Point 0.7380 must cross to go higher.

Brian Twomey, Inside the Currency Market, btwomey.com

Inside the Currency Market: EUR/NZD

EUR/NZD is oversold Vs EUR/USD but both share a 93% correlation. But also EUR/USD is reaching overbought at current prices while EUR/NZD has a long way to go before overbought hits. The big break in EUR/NZD below occurs at 1.6981 and 1.81 above. Viewed from EUR/USD at 1.2 and NZD/USD at 0.65, EUR/NZD has a problem at current prices. What’s inside EUR/NZD price is pure noise which means its price is not aligned Vs EUR/USD and NZD/USD. EUR/NZD must fly lower. Should offer wonderful volatility.

EUR/NZD. Bottom. 1.7153. Range break above 1.7341, Below 1.7139. Overbought sell point 1.7341, Failure point 1.7296. Careful 1.7341, its range break, same as EUR/USD at 1.1336. Strategy. Long above 1.7242, Target 1.7341 then reverse to 1.7291, 1.7269. Points on the way up, 1.7245, 1.7250, 1.7261, 1.7273, 1.7296, 1.7318, 1.7341.

Shorts below 1.7239, Target 1.7196. Watch here for reversal to 1.7239 and higher. Points on the way down, 1.7236, 1.7224, 1.7213, 1.7202, 1.7175, 1.7153 Bottom. Point 1.7196 Must cross to go higher.

Brian Twomey, Inside the Currency Market, btwomey.com

Inside the Currency Market: EUR/USD

Sometimes an uneven distribution exists between USD pairs, Non USD pairs and cross pairs. The only relationship for example NZD and AUD share Vs Euro is found in EUR/NZD and EUR/AUD. What if AUD/USD is out of sync with EUR/AUD or NZD/USD is out of sync with EUR/NZD. An adjustment is desperately needed and occurs immediately. An adjustment sometimes favors the cross pair, sometimes not. EUR/NZD and EUR/USD may win and NZD/USD loses but maybe NZD/USD and EUR/NZD may win. I tried to get EUR/NZD out this morning but thanks to the forex gods, I failed to do so. Today was a day when the cross pairs were out of sync with the respective underlying pair. I noticed it in EUR/USD, EUR/NZD and NZD/USD. Its why EUR/USD didn’t come near the bottom side target yet retraced to near hit perfect 1.1283 target. A perfect situation should’ve seen EUR/USD dead stop and reverse at 1.1241, instead EUR/USD went higher to dead stop at 1.1273, 10 pips before original target at 1.1283. EUR/USD was strictly cross pair driven and its what dragged EUR/USD higher from 1.1241. Cross pair driven days are seen not very often but yet seen. Traditionally, the underlying drives the cross pairs. How do we know. When a cross pair is say above a respective price and the underlying is below, its first warning a problem exists. It only takes one cross pair and the whole mix of prices falls out of sync. What’s so special about today. Well it defines the actual currency price value for the remainder of the week so the adjustment price fight must settle quickly. Only a central bank can do it so its a central bank Vs central bank fight. Do they settle on their own pair price or capitulate to the cross pair. Depends, sometimes they capitulate, sometimes not. Is the only time a true market exists, the remainder price times are well known long in advance.

EUR/USD. Bottom. 1.1213. Range break above 1.1336, Below 1.1204. Overbought sell point 1.1336, Failure point 1.1306. Strategy. Long above 1.1271, target 1.1336, watch here its range point. Then reverse to 1.1303 anf failure point at 1.1288. Points on the way up, 1.1273, 1.1277, 1.1282, 1.1292, 1.1306, 1.1321, 1.1336.

Shorts below 1.1269, Target 1.1241. Watch here for reversal to 1.1269 and higher. Points on the way down, 1.1260, 1.1252, 1.1245, 1.1227, 1.1213 Bottom. Point 1.1241 must cross to go higher.

Welcome and special recognition to Vantage FX from Australia,

Brian Twomey, Inside the Currency Market, btwomey.com

Inside the Currency Market: EUR/USD

Overnight trade, EUR/USD long 1.1187 to 1.1219, 5 pips above 1.1214 point, short range point 1.1234, + 32 pips. Long end of EUR/USD is dropping fast and daily, they are trying to drop this EU way lower.

EUR/USD. Bottom. 1.1167. Range break above 1.1289, 1.1355, Below 1.1158, 1.1093. Overbought sell point 1.1283, Failure point 1.1255. Strategy. Long 1.1225, Target 1.1283 then reverse short to 1.1254, at failure point 1.1255 then reverse short to 1.1241. Points on the way up, 1.1229, 1.1234, 1.1242, 1.1255, 1.1269, 1.1283. Always watch for failures as direction overall is down.

Short 1.1223, Target 1.1195. Watch here for reversal higher to 1.1223 and higher. Points on the way down, 1.1218, 1.1211, 1.1204, 1.1198, 1.1181, 1.1167 Bottom. Point 1.1195 must cross to go higher.

Brian Twomey, Inside the Currency Market, btwomey.com