EUR/NZD is oversold Vs EUR/USD but both share a 93% correlation. But also EUR/USD is reaching overbought at current prices while EUR/NZD has a long way to go before overbought hits. The big break in EUR/NZD below occurs at 1.6981 and 1.81 above. Viewed from EUR/USD at 1.2 and NZD/USD at 0.65, EUR/NZD has a problem at current prices. What’s inside EUR/NZD price is pure noise which means its price is not aligned Vs EUR/USD and NZD/USD. EUR/NZD must fly lower. Should offer wonderful volatility.
EUR/NZD. Bottom. 1.7153. Range break above 1.7341, Below 1.7139. Overbought sell point 1.7341, Failure point 1.7296. Careful 1.7341, its range break, same as EUR/USD at 1.1336. Strategy. Long above 1.7242, Target 1.7341 then reverse to 1.7291, 1.7269. Points on the way up, 1.7245, 1.7250, 1.7261, 1.7273, 1.7296, 1.7318, 1.7341.
Shorts below 1.7239, Target 1.7196. Watch here for reversal to 1.7239 and higher. Points on the way down, 1.7236, 1.7224, 1.7213, 1.7202, 1.7175, 1.7153 Bottom. Point 1.7196 Must cross to go higher.
Brian Twomey, Inside the Currency Market, btwomey.com