Inside the Currency Market: Gold

From the 1168 close, Gold trades in a 1056.34 – 1371.38 range. The wide variation derives from Gold’s location as current prices trade between the 10 and 15 year averages. Neither average is overbought nor oversold. The dichotomy reveals 1056 is an uptrend in progress while the downtrend from 1.1371 is underway. Gold’s larger range is found between the 5 and 10 year averages between 1056.34 – 1721.34.
Gold’s current price is below every average from 1- 10 years. The 2, 5 and 6 year averages drive Gold’s price particularly the 5 year due to its distance from current price. On price drops, the 5 year average becomes more oversold.
The 3 year average at 1587.42 is severely misaligned among all averages. It aligns more closely with the 7 year average at 1592.51 rather than the 5 year at 1721.34. More importantly, the 3 year average reveals a significant peak is here and a peak at richter scale levels.
The 5 year average is most oversold vs its counterparts but its price at 1721 is located between the 3 year at 1587 and 6 year at 1673.26, arguably misaligned as well but its responsible as the short term trade signal until resolution occurs between the 1056 and 1371 range. A price break of 1371 encounters stiff resistance from 1 and 2 year averages at 1422.89, 1482.83 then 1587.42, 1592.51, 1673.26 and the 5 year at 1721.
To align the distribution from 1 – 15 years, current targets must be seen at 1373.86, 1393.43, 1407.62, 1422.40, 1476.78, 1592.51, 1626.91, 1673.26 and 938.16. Targets will adjust slightly as a more orderly distribution aligns itself. Targets reveal at this juncture, Gold is heading higher over time.
What is expected is continued ranges between 1056.34 – 1371.38. A break of 1056 only sees next 1005.10 and severely oversold vs the 5 year average. Extreme sell points above are found at 1275.37 and 1256.77 and buy points at 1005.10 and 1005.80. If 1005.10 breaks later then 987.64 is next target.
Neither average from 1 -15 years however are sufficiently overbought or oversold although oversold is approaching on further price drops. Overbought begins from 1236 and extremes at 1275 and reveal ranges won’t nor are yet ready to break.

Brian Twomey, Inside the Currency Market, btwomey.com

Brian Twomey, Inside the Currency Market, btwomey.com

Inside the Currency Market: EUR/USD

Afternoon trades. AUD/USD short 0.7284 – 0.7198, + 86 Pips, EUR/NZD long 1.7016 – 1.7197 + 181, EUR/USD 10 pip range 1.1387 – 1.1377. Total pips + 267.

EUR/USD. Bottom. 1.1337. Range break above 1.1528, Below 1.1263, 1.1197. Overbought sell point 1.1445, Failure point 1.1421. Strategy. Longs above 1.1396, target 1.1445 then reverse to 1.1420 and 1.1408. Points on the way up, 1.1409, 1.1421, 1.1433, 1.1445.

Shorts below 1.1394, Target 1.1366. Watch here for reversal to 1.1394 and higher. Points on the way down, 1.1391, 1.1385, 1.1379, 1.1367, 1.1352, 1.1337 Bottom. Point 1.1366 must cross to go higher.

Brian Twomey, Inside the Currency Market, btwomey.com

Inside the Currency Market: AUD/USD

Since we last visited AUD, the story was range trades. The story remains the same. To move higher, AUD must break 0.7309 and 0.7381, 0.7408. Below 0.7260, 0.7188, 0.7163. Then comes 0.7040, 0.7008. What will change in the days ahead, range points will move slightly higher and slightly lower. AUD is now approaching 0.7260 and a must break to head lower.

AUD/USD. Bottom. 0.7248. Range break above 0.7309, 0.7381, 0.7408, Below 0.7260, 0.7188, 0.7163, 0.7040. Overbought sell point 0.7309, Failure point 0.7296. Strategy. Longs above 0.7286, target 0.7309 then reverse to 0.7296. Points on the way up, 0.7287, 0.7290, 0.7309.

Shorts below 0.7284, 0.7266. Watch here for reversal to 0.7284 and higher. Points on the way down, 0.7278, 0.7269, 0.7248 Bottom. Point 0.7266 must cross to go higher.

Brian Twomey, Inside the Currency Market, btwomey.com

Inside the Currency Market: EUR/NZD

EUR/NZD. Bottom. 1.1629. Range break above 1.7213, Below 1.6818, 1.6720. Overbought sell point 1.7089, Failure point 1.7054. Strategy. Long above 1.7016, Target 1.7089 then reverse to 1.7051, 1.7035. Points on the way up, 1.7019, 1.7027, 1.7032, 1.7054, 1.7072, 1.7089.

Shorts 1.7014, Target 1.6972. Watch here for reversal to 1.7014 and higher. Points on the way down, 1.7009, 1.7000, 1.6992, 1.6983, 1.6974, 1.6951, 1.6929 Bottom. Point 1.6972 must cross to go higher.

Brian Twomey, Inside the Currency Market, btwomey.com

Inside the Currency Market: EUR/USD

Morning Trade, long 1.1375, target failed at range point 1.1400, + 25 then reverse to 1.1355, +45, total + 70. In my rush to post, I failed to mention vital range point and possible failure although many many readers now understand well the import of range points. Yet it must be written at times for the many new readers.

EUR/USD. Bottom. 1.1329. Range break above 1.1520, Below 1.1255, 1.1189. Overbought sell point 1.1436, Failure point 1.1413. Strategy. Longs above 1.1388, target 1.1436 then reverse short to 1.1412, 1.1400. Points on the way up, 1.1390, 1.1401, 1.1413, 1.1425, 1.1436.

Shorts below 1.1386, Target 1.1358. Watch here for reversal to 1.1386 and higher. Points on the way down, 1.1383, 1.1377, 1.1371, 1.1365, 1.1359, 1.1344, 1.1329 Bottom. Point 1.1358 must cross to go higher.

I’ll post a few more EUR pairs in seconds.

Brian Twomey, Inside the Currency Market, btwomey.com

Inside the Currency Market: EUR/USD

Overnight trade, Long 1.1351 perfect dead stop at target 1.1410 + 59, then reversed to 1.1364, me 1.1367, + 46, total pips + 105.

EUR/USD. Bottom.1.1317. range break above 1.1400, 1.1467, Below 1.1347, 1.1281. Overbought sell point 1.1434, Failure point 1.1408. Strategy. Long above 1.1375, target 1.1434 then reverse to 1.1404, 1.1391. Points on the way up, 1.1377, 1.1380, 1.1394, 1.1408, 1.1421, 1.1434.

Shorts below 1.1373, Target 1.1345. Watch here for reversal to 1.1373 and higher. Points on the way down, 1.1369, 1.1362, 1.1355, 1.1351, 1.1347, 1.1338, 1.1317 Bottom. Point 1.1345 must cross to go higher.

Brian Twomey, Inside the Currency Market, btwomey.com