Inside the Currency Market: EUR/USD

On RBA statement, AUD/USD sell point 0.7281 dead stopped 0.7275, Bottom 0.7223 held. AUD/CAD broke 0.9458, dead stopped 0.9471, before my point 0.9474Lengthy RBA statement, I will review and report in the morning.

EUR/USD saw 14 pip range 1.1319 – 1.1333.

EUR/USD Bottom. 1.1279. Range break above 1.1362, Below 1.1309, 1.1243. Overbought sell point 1.1393, Failure point 1.1367. Strategy.Long above 1.1337, Target 1.1393 then reverse to 1.1365. Watch 1.1362 for possible fail. Points on the way up, 1.1341, 1.1354, 1.1367, 1.1380, 1.1393.

Shorts below 1.1335, Target 1.1307. Watch here for reversal to 1.1335 and higher. Points on the way down, 1.1329, 1.1323, 1.1316, 1.1310, 1.1293, 1.1279 Bottom. Point 1.1307 must break to go higher.

Brian Twomey, Inside the Currency Market, btwomey.com

Inside the Currency Market: 4 AUD Pairs

AUD/CAD From current 0.9430, the larger range is found between 0.9275 to 0.9754. To see 0.9275, next big break at 0.9373 must occur first. Above lies 0.9458, 0.9474 and 0.9485.

AUD/JPY. From Current 86.60, next big breaks above are located at 87.50, 87.49 and 87.97 intraday. Points 87.50 and 87.49 are two separate Moving Average lines that happen to be traveling together and assisting to force current prices lower. AUD/JPY just broke both points so the downtrend is fresh. What’s next below are two points located at 84.10 and 81.16. Both are severely oversold. But, as long as AUD continues its downtrend, as long as the RBA threatens to lower OCR, as long as commodity prices drop and as long as economic news continues to deteriorate, AUD/JPY goes lower and targets 84.10.

AUD/CHF. This pair remains severely oversold at current 0.6932. AUD/CHF is currently at life time lows, never seen before in 62 years to offer oversold context. If Australia ever recovers economically, AUD/CHF is the long to hold for extended periods. The best I have above are intraday at 0.6995 and 0.7011.

AUD/NZD. This pair is trying to recover from crisis lows and is slooowly moving towards its target. It remains oversold since 2008 and is in the same condition today. AUD/NZD has miles to go higher. The best points I have above is 1.0888 and 1.1099. AUD/NZD is in buy dips mode for a long long time in the future.

Brian Twomey, Inside the Currency Market, btwomey.com

Inside the Currency Market: AUD/USD

Last RBA statement, low commodity prices due to increased supplies, East Asia and China slowing, Terms of trade falling, economy slooowly expanding, yet GDP slow overall, employment increasing. Inflation contained but target seen in 1 – 2 years, Low OCR borrowers increasing, Housing increased, construction increasing from Housing.

Index of Commodity prices fell 1% in September, 2.7% in AUD terms led by declines in Lamb and Coal yet Iron Ore increased, a main staple for Australia.

Like New Zealand, Australia increased down payments for housing and helped so far but only pockets of good exists such as Sydney and Melbourne. If terms of Trade are falling, means AUD Tradeables V Non Tradeables inside the CPI numbers has severe problems, same for New Zealand. Its big warning to lower OCR and the main reason to do so. Lower OCR lowers AUD and in turn assists in trade expansion, to meet CPI target by increases in Tradeables. Tradeables are production within Australia used to ship overseas, mainly US and Asia. Australia is a fighting nation and will survive this downturn as the majors figure out their difficulties.

AUD remains the same story as previous. The sell point is 0.7281. My own MA system reveals 0.7260 and 0.7303 are vital breaks. The bottom is 0.7223. AUD is stuck in long time ranges and the range trade is the only way to view AUD.

AUD above 0.7303, next 0.7380 and 0.7382. Below 0.7140 and 0.7138, 0.6969, 0.6957.

Brian Twomey, Inside the Currency Market, btwomey.com

Inside the Currency Market: EUR/USD

Morning trades.EUR/USD failed at 1.1343, short reported range point 1.1359 then then dived to bottom target 1.1304, dead stopped 1.1305. + 10 above, + 27 below, total +37.
EUR/NZD, 1.6670 – 1.6615, + 55, total + 92.

EUR/USD. Bottom. 1.1265. Range break above 1.1348, down 11 pips from this morning. Below 1.1295, 1.1229. Overbought sell point 1.1379, Failure point 1.1353. Strategy. Longs above 1.1323, target 1.1379 then reverse to 1.1349. Watch 1.1348 range fail. Points on the way up, 1.1327, 1.1340, 1.1353, 1.1366, 1.1379.

Shorts below 1.1321, target 1.1293. Watch here for reversal to 1.1321 and higher. Points on the way down, 1.1315, 1.1309, 1.1296, 1.1279, 1.1265 Bottom. Point 1.1293 must cross to go higher.

Brian Twomey, Inside the Currency Market, btwomey.com

Inside the Currency Market: EUR/NZD

EUR/NZD. Bottom. 1.6584. Range break above 1.6706, 1.6805, Below 1.6629. Overbought sell point 1.6752, Failure point 1.6713, Watch 1.6706, may fail. Strategy. Long above 1.6670, Target 1.6752 then reverse to 1.6711 and 1.6691. Points on the way up, 1.6675, 1.6694, 1.6713, 1.6733, 1.6752.

Shorts below 1.6667, Target 1.6626. Watch here for reversal to 1.6667 and higher. Points on the way down,1.6658, 1.6649, 1.6639, 1.6630, 1.6605, 1.6584 Bottom. Point 1.626 must cross to go higher.

Brian Twomey, Inside the Currency Market, btwomey.com

Inside the Currency Market: EUR/USD

EUR/USD. Bottom. 1.1276. Range break above 1.1359, Below 1.1306, 1.1240. Overbought sell point 1.1390, Failure point 1.1364. Strategy. Long above 1.1334, target 1.1390 then reverse to 1.1361, 1.1348. Watch 1.1359 Range point, may fail. Points on the way up,1.1338, 1.1351,1.1364, 1.1377, 1.1390.

Shorts below 1.1332, target 1.1304. Watch here for reversal to 1.1332 and higher. Points on the way down, 1.1326, 1.1320, 1.1313, 1.1307, 1.1290, 1.1276 Bottom. Point 1.1304 must cross to go higher.

Bigger picture 1.1147 and 1.1237 are rising and must break to take EU down further. 1.1595 above, a drop of 1 point since what 2 weeks. Showdown is coming.

Brian Twomey, Inside the Currency Market, btwomey.com