ECB and the Draghi Sunshine band in the morning to borrow my friend Peter’s phrase.
QE is scheduled to end September 2016. If Draghi hints at date extension, if he hints at expansion by bond purchases, sour economy, not looking good, inflation and GDP to remain low. Then EUR drops like a rock. Watch bottom and bottom range breaks.
EUR/USD. Bottom. 1.1303.Range break above 1.1454, 1.1481, Below 1.1268, 1.1242. Overbought sell point 1.1401, Failure point 1.1387. Strategy. Longs above 1.1362, target 1.1401 then reverse to 1.1370. Points on the way up, 1.1364, 1.1376, 1.1387, 1.1394, 1.1401.
Shorts below 1.1360, target 1.1332. Watch here for reversal to 1.1360 and higher. Points on the way down, 1.1352, 1.1345, 1.1339, 1.1334, 1.1318, 1.1303 Bottom.Point 1.1332 must cross to go higher.
Further points 1.1239, 1.1154 must breaks to see EUR far lower. Draghi wants a far lower EUR, its in his interests economically and for exports. The ECB is again working hard and fast to drop the EUR curve, its falling nicely.
Brian Twomey, Inside the Currency Market, btwomey.com