EUR/USD: More Downside

Why continued focus on EUR is because GBP has been literally stuck in dead ranges and has severely under performed EUR. Secondly, GBP ranges no longer can hold and I’m expecting a range explosion to the downside. What’s inside the current GBP price is pure noise.

Last week break on Draghi comments of 1.1236 and 1.1155 remains stasis at 1.1155 as 1.1236 crossed below 1.1155 and is now located at 1.1143. Also mentioned last week was the point at 1.0895 was a must break line to see the bottom at 1.0672. The level at 1.0895 moved higher and is now located at 1.0903. The bottom at 1.0672 is now located at 1.0512 and 1.0459.

Shorts must remain below falling 1.1143 and immovable 1.1155 to target the dynamic moving line now at 1.0903. A break of 1.0903 targets not only 1.0788 and 1.0775 but breaks here should see bottoms at 1.0512 and 1.0459. The range is found between dynamic lines at 1.0903 – 1.1143 and 1.1155.

Longs must break 1.1155 to target dynamic lines at 1.1275, 1.1288 and falling lines at 1.1594, 1.1598 and 1.1699.

Despite a severely oversold EUR/USD and a 2900 pip drop in 14 months, the economics of Europe and a Yellen raise are still grounds to continue focus on the downside. In terms of MA lines, the entire structure still reveals short as lines continue to descend. A full directional price change can only occur if Yellen rescinds a Fed Funds rate rise.

Brian Twomey

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