EUR/USD Vs USD/CHF Long Term Forecast

We look again at relationships between currency pairs by Regression analysis viewed as time series because its accurate, allows long long term views and I like it. Many moving parts to regression analysis but not all parts are needed to forecast and hit targets. Any one of the parts may be employed while the remainder parts serve as back ups to ensure the forecast.

EUR/USD V USD/CHF. Means are offered and high low ranges from EUR/USD 1.0877.From Fixed averages, vital points 0.9881 and 0.9878.

1 Year Mean 0.9763, high 0.9953, low 0.9573.
2 year mean 0.9738, high 0.9944, low 0.9532. USD/CHF prices here
3 year mean 0.9746, high 0.9941, low 0.9551.
5 year mean 0.9859, high 1.0121, low 0.9597.
7 year mean 0.9823, high 1.0601, low 0.9823.
10 year mean 1.0430, high 1.1695, low 0.9165.

EUR/USD V USD/CHF from 1.0829

1 year mean 0.9794, high 0.9984, low 0.9604
2 year mean 0.9751, high 0.9957, low 0.9545
3 year mean 0.9757, high 0.9952, low 0.9562 USD/CHF prices here
5 year mean 0.9873, high 1.0135, low 0.9611
7 year mean 0.9826, high 1.0604, low 0.9048
10 year mean 1.0432, high 1.1697, low 0.9167

USD/CHF V EUR/USD From 0.9954

1 year mean 1.0859, high 1.1059, low 1.0659
2 year mean 1.0672, high 1.1330, low 1.0014
3 year mean 1.0899, high 1.1564, low 1.0234 EUR/USD prices here
5 year mean 1.1525, high 1.2200, low 1.0850
7 year mean 1.3050, high 1.4058, low 1.2042
10 year mean 1.3270, high 1.4345, low 1.2195

USD/CHF V EUR/USD from 1.0025

1 year mean 1.0809, high 1.1009, low 1.0609
2 year mean 1.0481, high 1.1139, low 0.9823 EUR/USD prices here
3 year mean 1.0704, high 1.1369, low 1.0039
5 year mean 1.1385, high 1.2060, low 1.0690
7 year mean 1.3041, high 1.4049, low 1.2033
10 year mean 1.3267, high 1.4342, low 1.2192

EUR/USD and USD/CHF prices are driven by longer term averages, answers why volatility seen. EUR/USD drives USD/CHF prices, never USD/CHF drives EUR/USD. USD/CHF is going higher, EUR/USD lower. When EUR/USD officially turns in a new cycle period, EUR/USD is headed to 1.2000’s because its far out of range and must return.

Brian Twomey, Inside the Currency Market, btwomey.com

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