AUD/USD: Levels, Ranges, Targets

Current AUD/USD. Bottoms 0.7122 and 0.7104. Big point breaks 0.7136 and 0.7152. Further upside points 0.7143, 0.7158, 0.7162.

Range 17 pips. Extreme buy points for RBA 0.7097, and 0.6961. Above Sell points 0.7265 and 0.7321. Range breaks 0.7163 above and 0.7116 and 0.6973 below.

Longs must pass 0.7163, Shorts below 0.7136, Targets watch range point 0.7116, a break stay short to bottoms at 0.7104. A break on RBA, target 0.7097 then reverse long, must pass 0.7104 and 0.7122 but below 0.7136.

Again most important from RBA is Trade Ables, Vs Non Trade Ables, those are Import and Export Prices and the greatest problem for AUD. RBA needs AUD lower to possibly export their way out of the current economic dilemma. Inflation at 1.7% and OCR at 2.0 is okay for now as Inflation isn’t yet a problem.

Brian Twomey, Inside the Currency Market, btwomey.com

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EUR/USD: Levels, Ranges, Targets

Mentioned 1.0887 will break, it broke to see 1.0873 lows. Bottoms are found at 1.0860 and 1.0833. Next range target below is now 1.0760 from this morning 1.0812 and Sunday evening 1.0786. This point is most dynamic with a fluid downside range point. Well take this point step by step as days progress.

Above upper targets 1.0896 and 1.0903. Looks for reversal short here. Big lines falling are now 1.1017, 1.1009, 1.0978 and 1.0891. Range today 57 pips. 1.0760 next below then 1.0629. Far distance for now. Sell rallies.

Brian Twomey Inside the Currency Market, btwomey.com

EUR/USD: Levels, Ranges, Targets

The point at 1.0887 remains big huge break. As mentioned last evening, it will break. Bottoms are located at 1.0886 and 1.0913. This means EUR/USD is currently in daily reversal zone but 1.0913 must break to go higher, until the American opening. What 1.0887 means, EUR/USD could see permanent lower exchange rates for quite some time. We could easily see a 1.0400 – 1.0800 range to last again for a long long time. 1.0887 is not just a break, its colossal. Forget oversold overbought, the ECB is targeting this break and its been building for quite some time.

Any rallies will be contained below upper targets at 1.0944 and 1.0956. Above 1.1016 dropping line was 1.1018 last evening, then 1.1032 and 1.1071. Dropping lines 1.1016, 1.1032 and 1.1071. A break of 1.0887 targets 1.0812, last evening point was 1.0786. Lines are always dynamic. Continue selling any rallies although rallies should remain very shallow.

USD/CAD. Longs from Sunday night open from 1.3510 so far saw 1.3587 for 77 pip gain. Continue to buy dips as mentioned USD/CAD going far higher.

Brian Twomey, Inside the Currency Market, btwomey.com

EUR/USD: Levels, Ranges, Targets

The big point break below remains 1.0887 and it will break but not yet. The current bottoms are found at 1.0887 and 1.0860. As well we hit extreme buy points at 1.0874 and 1.0829. Upper targets are located at 1.0930 – 1.0976. Why the range is because I’m taking a quick market look and won’t know exactly where price stands until about 11:00. A break of 1.0887 targets next range points at 1.0786, 1.0655 and 1.0612.
Above 1.1018 and 1.1044 are falling lines as well as the 5 day average at 1.0991 and 50 day at 1.0997. The 100 day is found at 1.0903 and stopped the current opening downtrend. Any rebounds must break falling 1.1018 and 1.1044. Strategy remains sell rallies for the break of 1.0887 and lower.

More trades and EUR/USD updates on the way.

Brian Twomey, Inside the Currency Market, btwomey.com

USD/CAD: Levels, Ranges, Targets

USD/CAD. Bottoms are located at 1.3476 and 1.3442, bottoms coincide with extreme buy points at 1.3433, 1.3427 and 1.3353. Above sell points located 1.4019, 1.4021 and 1.4189. But big line breaks are found at falling levels at 1.3701 and 1.3778. Intraday targets 1.3557 and 1.3577 from 1.3510 close. Resistance points above located at 1.3538 – 1.3548. Both must break to head higher. Further out targets 1.3744 and 1.4239. Intraday targets and bottoms are consistent with immediate 198 pip range points between 1.3411 – 1.3609. Range movements are 36 pips and extremely low. Overall ranges in USD/CAD are extremely wide. Positive trends are located from averages 50 – 253, negative from 5 – 50. Trend information written for my own purposes.

USD/CAD is in buy dip mode as oversold begins at the 1.3476 and 1.3442 bottoms. A bottom is forming in USD/CAD while tops are far higher. USD yields consistent with AUD are far to low and misaligned to money market rates. Fed funds trading ranges for February was 0.25 – 56 but closed at 0.37 inside a new 5 day range between 0.30 – 0.56. Its enough to offer big supports in USD/CAD.

Brian Twomey, Inside the Currency Market, btwomey.com

AUD/USD and AUD/CAD: Levels, Ranges, Targets

AUD/USD. Bottoms 0.7102 and 0.7084. Vital point breaks 0.7149 and 0.7134. 50 day average 0.7060. Buy prices below 0.7068 and 0.7044. Watch 0.6947 on worst case based on RBA Tuesday. Above sell points are found at 0.7306 and 0.7313. Best target 0.7253.

Range points 0.7096, 0.7143 and 0.7265. Note points 0.7134, 0.7143 and 0.7149 as tough clustered area. Total range 17 pips. Vital points to watch for the next day or two, 0.7134, 0.7142, 0.7150, 0.7161, 0.7173, 0.7190.

AUD/CAD. Vital points from 0.9632 close. 0.9525 below, and 0.9794 and 0.9827 above. 253 day average 0.9627. AUD/CAD is way oversold, AUD/USD is okay not overbought or oversold but AUD/CAD could assist AUD/USD higher. Both pairs better to sell rallies. AUD/CAD Trend is positive at 5 day MA, 50, 100 and 200 but negative from 10 and 20.

RBA Tuesday. Should hear usual story, AUD to high, commodity prices should see AUD much lower, 0.6500 was mentioned last week as good level. Listen close to Australia’s main economic problem Import and Export prices, both for the past year or so are severely misaligned. In the statement they will use words as Trade Ables V Non Trade Ables. Its another reason why AUD has been pretty much in ranges and why RBA wants AUD lower. They want a lower AUD to assist Exports. Inflation is not a concern. Listen to Labor messages for layoffs. Housing should be good as the recent adoption of 20% down payments assisted to cool off the overheated Housing market. Now its stabilizing.

Brian Twomey, Inside the Currency Market, btwomey.com

CHF Saron and Debt Register Claims

Saron is the Swiss overnight interest rate, currently trading negative at -0.725 or 0.271. The SNB still has a long long way to go before the negative bottom is even close. What negative means is the SNB if they desire can still cut again. Yet ss Saron trades 48 bps below Eonia, 13 bps below Sweden Stibor and 10 bps below Denmark CD rates, a further cut for the SNB is not obvious from current levels as the SNB brought interest rates to lowest depths. Tom Next trade averages in Swiss money markets currently traded at 0 in 4 of the last 7 months and hit maximum negative bottoms in December 2014. Maximum negative is explained by the Swiss Federal Council to reduce volume issuance of Swiss Debt Register Claims in 2015 from CHF 10.3 billion to CHF 6 – 7 billion in 2016. Throughout 2016, issuance is expected to rise to CHF 8 – 9 billion yet Confederate bonds outstanding will reduce by CHF 3 billion from CHF 6 billion. Debt Register Claims are issued to pay maturing bonds as one function to its use as a means to finance in the Swiss system. The Corollary in the US is FED Funds V Commercial Paper, Eurodollars or Repo relationships. Deals are quick and short term and only point changed from nation to nation is the interest rate name as the system of finance remains the same throughout the world.

CHF M1 money supplies were negative from September 2015 – January 2016 but retained positive readings between CHF 572, 511 – 534, 553. Two day Swiss Debt Register Claims currently trade at 0.1. Last GDP in Switzerland was 0 and its explained by the volatility seen in not only Swiss money markets but all central banks due from adjustments to negative interest rates. Volatility in money supplies as all central banks are currently experiencing won’t lift GDP nor allow a clear trend until the economic systems settle. Future economics will be seen as a success or failure in money velocities as this was the major focus in Gesell’s negative interest rate writings. Volatility will also be seen in exchange rates due again to central bank adjustments. Acclimation since the 1971 free float generally lasts 1 – 2 years and viewed from 1990’s Inflation Targeting, QE, Plaza and Louvre agreements. The ECB began its journey to negative rates in September 2014, the current month of March enters 15 months.

The current corridor system in Switzerland is the same old story, borrow low and lend high as Debt Register Claims to Saron contains a 16 bps spread, 64 bps wide from Saron to 1 month CHF Libor and 32 bps from Saron to 3 month Libor. The misalignment is seen in 1 month Libor and Saron as the SNB generally conforms to a 50 bps policy to 3 month Libor.

What dictates Saron rates, levels and targets is the 2 year monthly average as 32 bps exist between the 1 and 2 year and 12 bps from the 2 – 3 year. The 1 year average is positive as current price is above at minus 0.725 or 0.275. The 1 year average is located at minus 0.729 or 0.271 while the 2 year is located at minus 0.403 or 0.59 and current price is below. Structural adjustments are seen as much in the averages as in the switch to negative interest rate policies. The ECB for example after 4 cuts since June 2014 still sees yearly averages severely oversold as 4 drops to Eonia failed to see the yearly averages maintain pace with the current market price. Oversold in Saron is seen in 3, 5 and 7 year averages but particularly in the 5 and 7 year averages as targets are found at 0.63 and 0.54 or minus 0.36 and minus 0.45. Excluding the 5 and 7 year, overall targets range from 0.24 to 0.45. Only the 8 year average is positive at 0.1145. To offer what targets mean, the 10 year yield trades minus 0.408 or 0.59. The 2 year Confederate bond trades minus 1.06 or positive 0.06, a 53 bps spread.

What Saron, Debt Register Claims and negative rates means for CHF is a severe oversold situation and oversold by many years.

CHF/USD = 1.0070
USD/CHF = 0.9961
CHF/EUR = 0.9149 EUR/CHF 1.0929
CHF/GBP = 0.7205 GBP/CHF 1.3878
CHF/AUD = 1.3976 AUD/CHF 0.7154
CHF/NZD = 1.4957 NZD/CHF 0.6685
CHF/CAD = 1.3641 CAD/CHF 0.7330 JPY/CHF = 0.0087.
CHF/JPY = 1.1384 USD/CHF and CHF/USD in post 2008 crisis remains a badly priced, mis priced, over and under priced currency pair. Viewed from its main counterpart in EUR, its not terrible yet severely oversold from AUD, NZD, CAD and off kilter from GBP.

Brian Twomey, Inside the Currency Market, btwomey.com

MXN, MYR, PHP, TRY, CNY V USD and EUR

USD/MXN. At current lifetime highs as is BRL. Banxico Mexico just raised rates as Carstens outlines an uncertain economic situation moving forward particularly Inflation. USD/MXN from current 18.13 is way way overbought, next points 17.56 and 17.87. EUR/MXN from current 20.00, next vitals 19.13 and 19.71, currently overbought.

USD/MYR. From current 4.2169, next points 4.2827 and 4.2221. Bank Negara is currently revamping its overnight rate in line with most central banks around the world. EUR/MYR from current 4.6500, next 4.6618, 4.6550, big point break 4.4621.

USD/PHP. From current 47.63, next 47.37, 47.35. Big point break below 45.95. EUR/PHP from current 52.53, next 52.22 and 51.57, big point break above 55.87. Current price is well balanced.

USD/TRY. From current 2.9244, next 2.9405 and 2.9409. EUR/TRY from current 3.2248, next 3.2015 and 3.2429. Both paisra are severely overbought by something in the vicinity of 500 – 1000 pips literally. TRY has severe problems.

USD/CNY. From current 6.5317, next 6.4897 and 6.4975, big point break 6.2720. EUR/CNY. From current 7.2026, next points 7.0661 and 7.1649. EUR/CNY is currently way oversold both intraday and long term.

Brian Twomey, Inside the Currency Market, btwomey.com

ILS, IDR, BRL, HRK, BGN V USD and EUR

Bulgarian Lev, Overnight rates LEONIA currently trade negative 0.08 while main money market rates SOFIBID and SIFIBOR also trade negative at minus 0.297 and minus 0.040. Money markets contain a full 26 BPS spread, 5 BPS from LEONIA to SOFIBOR and 22 BPS from LEONIA to SIFIBID.

USD/BGN. From current 1.7736, vital point breaks are located at 1.7740 and 1.7969. Long term USD/BGN is overbought. EUR/BGN from Current 1.9558 sits dead on support at 1.9558.

USD/BRL. From current 3.9473 trades at lifetime highs and is wildly overbought as has been the case for many years. Intraday USD/BRL is oversold. Next vital points 3.9218, 3.9186. EUR/BRL from current 4.3527 next vital points 4.2669 and 4.3245. A giant move is in the works for EUR/BRL as pure noise is located in current prices.

USD/HRK. Croatia Kuna. Current money market rates trade 0.30 – -0.28 on heavy volume. Fitch, Noody’s and S&P’s downgraded Croatia foreign and domestic currencies on Negative watch list at BB ratings. USD/HRK from current 6.9121, next vital points 7.0167 and 6.9189. Currently, overbought. EUR/HRK from current 7.6220, next vital points 7.6371 and 7.6276.

USD/IDR. From current 13410.50 and overbought, next 13748.97 and 13633.49. EUR/IDR from current 14767.76, next points 14967.07 and 15033.08.

USD/ILS. From current 3.9008, next vitals 3.9071 and 3.9030. The Shekel sits comfortable above 3.7119. A big move is in the works for ILS as its current price is pure noise. EUR/ILS from current 4.3015, next 4.2536 and 4.3037 and above 4.7393.

Brian Twomey, Inside the Currency Market, btwomey.com

GBP/USD: Levels, Ranges, Targets

GBP/USD. To consider longs on any sustained basis, 1.4551 must break. Price rises are corrections.

GBP/USD. Bottoms. 1.3891, 1.3856. Range points today only, 1.3838, 1.3823, 1.3745 V 1.4013, 1.4029. Break of 1.3745 targets next range 1.3653 while break 1.4029 targets 1.4109. Overbought sell point None. GBP like AUD and NZD contains serious deficiencies in the curves. GBP is oversold yet this curve is a mess. How about today’s range is 7 pips to offer example of misalignment GBP.
Significant supports are built in at 1.3891, 1.3892 and throughout 1.3800’s at 1.3886, 1.3882, 1.3873.
For GBP, must trade the ranges and caution. I don’t have much more to say about a GBP daily trade, longer term, its going lower but significant supports exists. GBP as well is misaligned to its own pairs like negative GBP/CAD and significant correlation tops in GBP/USD Vs GBP/JPY, GBP/CHF, GBP/NZD and GBP/AUD. Until I view the longer term mechanics in GBP prices, I don’t have much to say. What still offers a clearer picture is EUR and EUR pairs.

Brian Twomey, Inside the Currency Market, btwomey.com

NZD/USD: Levels, Ranges, Targets

NZD contains the same problems as AUD, NZD yields are problems especially the 2 year yield as its price is far to low. its misalignmnt. The extreme buy sell prices are located at 0.6734 and 0.6584. Big points from my MA system is found at 0.6615 and 0.6612. Current p[rice is 0.6657. The current range is 28 pips, same as AUD/USD. A moderate top is in place.

NZD/USD. Range breaks, 0.6759 above V 0.6556 below. Overbought sell point 0.6688, then reverse to 0.6672. Points on the way up, 0.6678, 0.6680, 0.6685, 0.6688 Target.

Sell below 0.6656, target 0.6623, points on the way down, 0.6652, 0.6648, 0.6643, 0.6639, 0.6631.

Brian Twomey, Inside the Currency Market, btwomey.com

AUD/USD: Levels, Ranges, Targets

I reiterate, big big changes are coming to AUD and Australia markets based on the Debelle speech and its the same revamp as all central banks. Previous I mentioned how Interest rates were misaligned to exchange rates but that situation is now resolved. The problem now in AUD is AUD yields, 1 year to 10 which means all AUD yields. AUD yields are far to low and severely out of alignment. AUD yields go higher or interest rates must come down. I don’t recommend tyrading AUD based on AUD yields alone cause it won’t work.

AUD big points from my MA system. 0.7133 and 0.7149. Note below slight difference in today’s market range numbers. Range is 29 pips today while buy sell price extremes are found at 0.7052, 0.7044 and 0.7274 and 0.7314.

AUD/USD. Bottom. 0.7140. Range breaks 0.7152 below, 0.7200 and 0.7322 above. Overbought sell point 0.7240, Failure point 0.7229. Sell back to 0.7208 and 0.7202. Watch 0.7200 as it must break, may not. Points on the way up, 0.7179, 0.7184, 0.7191, 0.7204, 0.7217, 0.7229, 0.7235, 0.7240. Understand, AUD curves a bit misaligned.

Sell below 0.7175, Target 0.7140, caution in target as 0.7149 and 0.7152 may stop this target. Points on the way down, 0.7179, 0.7166 and 0.7159.

AUD/CAD. Big points 0.9824 and 0.9803. For today, 0.9824 is perfectly balanced.

Brian Twomey, Inside the Currency Market, btwomey.com

EUR/USD: Levels, Ranges, Targets

EUR/USD. Big Points 1.0886, 1.1033. Longs above 1.1033. Overall range today 59 pips. Overall price extremes 1.0931 V 1.1460. Today’s buy sell extremes 1.0931 buy V 1.1141 sell. EUR/USD is heading far lower from current levels.

EUR/USD. Bottoms 1.0994, 1.0965. Ranges Below 1.0832, 1.0821, 1.0802 V above 1.1215. Overbought sell point 1.1041, 1.1051. Above 1.1041 begins sell. Targets first 1.1032 then 1.1021. Points on way up, 1.1025, 1.1032, 1.1038 then 1.1041.

Shorts below 1.1021, target 1.0994 then Bottom 1.0965. Points on the way down, 1.0994, 1.0987, 1.0980,1.0971, 1.0965 Bottom. Longs from 1.0965, 1.0994 must go higher to remain long.

Brian Twomey, Inside the Currency Market, btwomey.com

EUR/USD: Levels, Ranges, Targets

Past post nullified. New day day dawns.

EUR/USD. Extreme Bottoms and tops, 1.0517 V 1.1459, 50 day average Dictates EUR/USD.

EUR/USD Bottoms. 1.0953, 1.0925. Range points below 1.0838, 1.0734, Above 1.1125. Overbought sell point 1.0997, Failure point 1.0845. Longs above 1.0984, Target 1.0997 then reverse to 1.0990. Points on the way up, 1.0984, 1.0986, 1.0989, 1.0993 then target 1.0997 and 1.1017. Funny area here today.

Below. Shorts below 1.0975, Target 1.0953 then Bottom 1.0925. Reverse long above 1.0953, Points way down, 1.0975, 1.0961, 1.0957, 1.0952, 1.0948, 1.0940, 1.0933 then Bottom 1.0925.

More trades coming, Website is revamping, going private, trade signals for few members, accepting few more traders, not many. Pay 1 day, 29 days profitable trades for traders. Current crew doing just fine, exporters doing just fine.

Brian Twomey, Inside the Currency Market, btwomey.com

EUR/USD: levels, Ranges, Targets

Where’s EUR/USD Trend, down, but getting stretched, Extreme Market levels, 1.0496, 1.1468. 5 and 10 day Average trend = -0.004, 10 to 20 = -0.005, 100 – 200 day = -0.013. Short term today, buy sell extremes 1.0946 and 1.1162. Major points 1.0884 and 1.1035 But note range points.

Range points today, 1.0868, 1.0765, 1.0736 V 1.0868. Strategy, Shorts below 1.1012 and 1.1014, Target 1.0956, 1.0946, Then reverse long, Target above 1.1028, then reverse short, Failure point 1.1012, 1.1014 Bottoms today, 1.0984, 1.0956, short term reversal close, Must pass 1.1012, 1.1014 first, 3 Month Avg line 1.1105, dropping.

Long 1.0956, shorts 1.1028, Points today, 1.0956, 1.0971, 1.0984, 1.0986, 1.0988, 1.0992. Upside target 1.1028, Bottom 1.0956

More trades on the way, Looks like these trades go to members in short term future, we will take a few interested, only a few though. our few members are making tons and tons of money, its astounding how well all profit. They pay 1 day, trade free for 28. We hit perfect fundamental targets as well, we are well well prepared.

Brian Twomey, Inside the Currency Market, btwomey.com

AUD/USD: Levels, Targets, Ranges

RBA governor Debelle outlined the new changes coming to AUD and Australian markets. The changes are huge with wide implications for AUD and the changes are consistent with the revamp in the remainder of central banks. I long saw the problems in AUD and reported it in many blog posts over past months as AUD prices slowed to 10 pip daily ranges. I thought then the RBA had to lower OCR to align AUD more properly, now I’m not so sure lower OCR is the way. I believe so far AUD can operate under the new changes without an OCR cut but this is very early assessments as the speech was 2 days ago. AUD will see the slowdown as I mentioned in EUR and other pairs but time exists before implementation of the new changes.

Daily AUD ranges doubled from 10 pips to current 21 pips but again AUD is held inside the ranges. AUD/USD big support points below are found at 0.7141 and 0.7133. For today, bottoms are found at 0.7212 and 0.7200. Central banks are driving AUD as last week and Year to date, AUD is most bought currency by huge and wide margins.
AUD target for today is 0.7278 but vital range points must break at 0.7240 and 0.7258. Below to target 0.7212 and 0.7200, price must break 0.7240 and 0.7238. Look for sell points at the 0.7230 and 0.7258 points. Below 0.7238, targets 0.7212. again, ranges are small, 21 pips so big moves aren’t ahead. Slow and steady is the way. And AUD direction is down and will head far lower over time from current prices.

AUD/CAD. Vital points, below 0.9812, 0.9800 V above 1.0017. Any rises sees overbought and consistent with AUD/USD as rises in AUD/USD becomes overbought most particularly seen at the 5 and 10 day averages for today.

Brian Twomey, Inside the Currency Market, btwomey.com

KRW, THB, RUB, HKD V USD and EUR

Vital points below are trade levels to act as breaks will see significant price moves.

USD/KRW. From close at 1234.60, next levels, 1198.09 and 1182.87, currently overbought.

EUR/KRW. From close at 1373.85, next vital points 1287.92 and 1324.99

USD/THB. From close at 35.73, next points 35.89 and 35.69

USD/RUB. From 77.04 close, next points 73.96 and 71.93. Rub resembles ZAR, its extremely overbought and price should be far far lower. Expect much volatility in all RUB pairs.

EUR/RUB. From 86.30 close, next point 81.85.

USD/HKD. From 7.7739 close, next points 7.7750, 7.7739 ( closed on support, resistance). 7.7687, 7.7639. HKD is another pair ready for an explosive price move. Current price cannot remain in present location. Watch this pair close for a giant move higher.

Brian Twomey, Inside the Currency Market, btwomey.com

ZAR, SGD, SEK, NOK, INR

USD/ZAR is a currency pair whose price remained in overbought territory for years. First 7.00 then 8.00 broke. Then ZAR traveled to 10 and 12.00. Now price sits at 15.4025 from the close. The big point breaks remain at 7.0 and 8.0. As Yellen raised, its natural for pairs such as ZAR to also raise. No better example in Fed Funds rises and price reactions is found in the South American Peso pairs, USD/COP ( Columbia ), USD/ARS ( Argentina ), USD/CLP ( Chile ) and USD/BRL. All are well practiced in USD rises and falls over many years.

USD/ZAR. From the 15.4025 close, watch closely 15.3073 and 15.2628.

USD/SGD. From the 1.4053 close, next 1.4083 and 1.4156.

USD/SEK. This pair is ready for an explosive move as price varied already 4.8%. SEK cut its Repo rate further into negative territory. Its tracking Denmark DKK as the most negative interest rates in the world. Part of Sweden’s economic problem derives from the refugee crisis as Swede citizens resent the current government due to high profile crimes committed by recent migrants. The best points are found above at 8.4902 and 8.5535.

EUR/SEK. From 9.4031 close, below supports 9.3873 and 9.3101

USD/NOK. A much more smoother pair than SEK and its derived from the Norway system in operating their own exchange rates. Its doesn’t share the same Swede problems. USD/NOK. From 8.5562 close, next points 8.5893 and 8.6922. I can’t help the wide variations in SEK ans NOK prices, its built into the exchange rate systems.

EUR/NOK. From 9.5230 close, next points 9.4965 and 9.4620, well supported for now.

USD/INR. From 68.72 close, next 67.39 and 66.95, well supported.

EUR/INR. From 76.32 close, next 74.52, 73.07, 72.89. Extreme buy points 75.71 and 75.04. Sell points 77.93 and 76.68.

Brian Twomey, Inside the Currency Market, btwomey.com

EUR/USD V USD/JPY

Months ago, the EUR/USD V USD/JPY relationship was clear and uniform. Then 126 was a clear top in all averages and 120.00 – 121.00 a discernible sell point. Today,the averages are non uniform. The 1 year average has 0 slope but a EUR/USD bottom at 1.0893 while the EUR/USD leaves its range in the 3 and 5 year averages below 1.1013 and 1.1058. In the 7 and 10 year averages, EUR/USD enters its range at 1.1300 and 1.1513. On the USD/JPY side, the USD/JPY previous top from 126 is now solid across all averages at 124.00 but look to 117.00 0 119.00 as must breaks before consideration of 124 down the road. USD/JPY is outside its boundaries in the 1, 2 and 3 year averages and should be at 118.33, 117.54, and 115.81. Bottoms in the 5, 7 and 10 year averages are located at 104.94, 102.75 and 96.72. Average lines are located at 116.45, 113.60 and 110.70.

EUR/USD and USD/JPY are both fighting dominance to go higher but opposite correlations won’t allow it. Might be this week’s data that decides. USD/JPY is much more oversold than EUR/USD so USD/JPY longs for the week.

From current 112.52, bottom points are found at 110.69, 109.59 and overall tops at 117.68 and 117.86. The best range is found from 109.59 and 110.69 – 114.60. I like the target so far at 114.43 but first 113.60 must break. If 114.60 breaks then next target becomes 116.45 I’m comfortable with USD/JPY longs but not sufficiently comfortable with targets so we monitor this trade over the week.

EUR/USD. Tops in EUR/USD are found at 1.1300, 1.1359 and 1.1435, 1.1513 and 1.1595. Rough area between 1.1300 – 1.1595 and must breaks to see 1.1800’s. On the downside, 1.1123, 1.1059 then longer term 1.0886. Most important point 1.1059 is an imperative break to see EUR/USD lower. Upon a 1.1059 break then next targets become 1.0953, 1.0906 then on to 1.0886. Watch 1.1059, if it holds then short term traders can head long to range between 1.1059 – 1.1123. Overall from my daily data, EUR/USD is at a top and is heading lower.

Brian Twomey, Inside the Currency Market, btwomey.com

PLN, HUF, RON, CZK, CHF

CZECH Republic. China agrees to increase Automobile, Mechanical and Electrical Engineering investments in CZECH Republic from CZK 500 million in 2015 to CZK 1 billion. China investments in Germany account for 20% of all German investments. GE agrees to manufacture the Aviation Turboprop engine and create 500 jobs.

EUR/CZK closed 27.0240 while Governor Singer at the CNB agrees to maintain the 27.000 floor through 2016 as CZK 200 billion or EUR 7.4 billion was spent to intervene in 2015 to maintain the floor. CZK saw a trade surplus of 0.5 in all 2015. The 10 year yield trades currently 0.505, down from 0.679 on February 8. Inflation is expected to reach the 2% target in Q1 2017 and 2.1 in Q2 2017. GDP in 2016 is expected at 2.7 and 3.0 in 2017.
3 month Pribor 0.3 is expected in 2016 and rising to 0.9 in 2017. One day Pribor trades 0.13 and 0.14 at the 1 week interval. The 2 week Repo rate currently trades 0.05 and is stable for many years.

USD/CZK Vital levels are located from the 24.27 close at 24.46, 24.83 and 22.09. EUR/CZK from 27.0240 close, next vital points are located at 27.0330, 27.0432 and 26.0359 if the 27 floor ever breaks.

USD/HUF from the 277.12 close, next vital levels are located at 234.69, 281.92, 287.69. EUR/HUF from 308.360 close, next vitals 311.6527, 313.11 and 297.8955. The Forint as EUR/HUF is massively oversold intraday and massive overbought as USD/HUF. The Forint is caught between the uncertainties in Yellen’s next raise V Negative interest rates in Europe and offers terrific volatility. The EUR/PLN drop has had the greatest impact on the Forint over the past year yet the Forint tracker currency is easily CHF/HUF. From the CHF/HUF 279.995 close, next vitals are found at 284.6459, 287.2782 and 252.57 way below. Intraday CHF/HUF is oversold and overbought longer term. Any pair as other currency/ HUF are corrective rallies.

Inside Hungary’s central bank, the MNB or the Magyar Nemzeti contains a twice monthly meeting of the Monetary Council. The last Inflation report with Core at 1.3 and headline at 0 projects 2.4% Core and 1.7 headline in 2016 and 2.6 for both Core and headline in 2017. Inflation target in Hungary is 3% surrounded by a + or minus 1% band. Inflation drivers in Hungary are Unprocessed Food, alcohol, tobacco and severe negative, – 8% in fuel. GDP is projected at 2.1 in 2016 and 2.3 in 2017. Wages fall inside the 3 – 4% range since 2015. Balance of Payments are now reported since June 2014 by the MNB on a quarterly basis.

Interest rates, the MNB rate, in Hungary dropped from 2.6% March 2014 to current 1.35, a record low especially since the 11% rate at the 2008 crisis. Similar to the CNB, Hungary is driven by the 2 week MNM bill. It currently roams between 0 – 2% for all 2015. The interest rate channel is 200 basis points wide with a 75 bps allowable movement on either side. In this instance, the MNB operates overnight rates similar to Sweden and Norway yet sets the 1.35 point at the 3 month interval and similar to the old Bank of Canada methodology as Canada set overnight rates at the 3 month Treasury Bill. The 10 year yield sits at 3.450, down from 3.720 January 2016.

USD/RON from the 4.0297 close, next vitals include 4.0518, 4.1261 and 3.4610 way below. EUR/RON from 4.4793 close, next points are found at 4.4788, 4.4908, 4.3779 and 4.4080. The Romanian Leu as EUR/RON and like EUR/HUF is expected a big move as price pressures in its current location cannot hold. Current NBR Romanian interest rates at 1.75 was 4% November 2013. ROBOR and ROBID, bid and offer rates in Romainian money markets are trading between 0.04 – 0.39 while the 10 year yield trades at current 3.395 and held steady since February 1. January 2014, the 10 year was 5.60 and 2.773 January 2015. Lows at 2.773 are lows not seen since the 2008 crisis. Crisis highs were seen at 9.75.

Inflation in Romania is negative since June 2015 as annual Core in Q4 2015 was minus 3.1 and up from minus 3.4 at end Q4 2015. Food, fuel, alcohol and tobacco are driving Inflation as well as the 9% reduction in VAT taxes. Wages are up, taxes down while productivity is down. The output gap is expected positive by 2017 from current negative. The Inflation target since target adoption in 2005 is 2.5% inside a 1% band. Inflation is expected negative all 2016 and positive by 2017 as consumer demand is expected to increase.

USD/PLN from 3.9287 close, next vitals, 3.9409, 3.9792 and 3.2479 way below. EUR/PLN from 4.3745 close, next 4.3571, 4.3315, and 4.1881 far below. EUR/PLN is oversold yet a break of 4.35 is needed to see the downtrend resume. The 10 year yield at current 2.945 saw 6.637 at crisis highs and eventual 1.996 lows. Current price like CZK, HUF and Ron hit lows and are in recovery mode.
CPI Core was negative 0.8 in 2015, minus 0.2 February and 0.0 to strip food and energy with projections to 1.1 in 2016 and 1.5 in 2017. The fall in commodity, fuel and meat prices contributed to the current lows. Economically, public sector spending is down , net exports off due to exchange rates in USD and EUR yet lending is stable, consumer demand rising as well as employment. Poland is not in immediate danger of wholesale economic problems but appears to be stable.
GDP is projected to 3.3 in 2016 and 3.5 by 2017.The wild card is the current Re discount rate at 1.75 in headline interest rates with a projected decline to 1.72 for 2016 and 2017. Factor the yield on 7 day bills in Poland’s money market is current 1.50, lower the Re Discount rate further closes the interest rate gap particularly when interest on reserves costs 0.9% currently.

Brian Twomey, Inside the Currency Market, btwomey.com