EUR/USD: Levels, Ranges, Targets

I read every word written by Silvio Gesell and negative interest as well as tons of academic papers related to negative interest rates and Gesell theories. Not a word was written regarding negative interest rates and combinations of QE, nor was it a recommendation. QE is a derived policy from the central banks and not Gesell. The ECB way to implement and sustain negative interest is by bond purchases. The 6 central banks adoption of negative interest all use some form of QE to ensure negative interest rates hold. Its a hybrid policy as negative rates by itself I see as a pure supply side approach while QE is pure Keynesian. Together, we have hybrid polices in a two pronged approach. Is further QE needed, is it the way. Will QE see Europe crumble further. 1 year later, Inflation is now negative. Is QE the blame. I always believed negative rates has extraordinary potential. Add QE though and we don’t know because negative rates was never implemented. We are in experimental territory. 2015 saw the fastest interest rate drops among 10 nations and was actually 60% of what was seen from 2008 – 2007. So far Gesell and negative interest rates are working as planned. Draghi has miles of room to further cut if necessary.

EUR/USD. Big vital points. 1.0982 and 1.0910. The pressure continues to build on current prices. Higher EUR/USD goes, greater will be the drop.

EUR/USD. bottoms. 1.0978 and 1.0923. Bottom target 1.0923. Ranges.1.1122 above and 1.0837 and 1.0692. Targets 1.1009 failure point and 1.1011. big points above 1.0982, 1.1000 and 1.1062. Should Draghi drive EUR/USD to 1.1054 then that point is severe overbought, out of bounds type overbought. I expect more dovish commentary from Draghi. Economic risks to downside, Inflation targets extended to whatever 2018 would see EUR/USD drop. Central banks haven’t been near inflation targets since the 2008 crisis. Points on the way up, 1.0982, 1.0998, 1.1000, 1.1003, 1.1009, 1.1010, 1.1017. Sell any rallies as longs are to scary.

Brian Twomey, Inside the Currency Market, btwomey.com

AUD/USD: Levels, Ranges, Targets

Thank you respectfully Brother Dale Friend of Forex, FXstreet.com, Live Analysis Room for support to recognize my work and efforts.

AUD/USD. Still maintains minus 32% correlation V EUR/USD. This means AUD/USD won’t move pip for pip V EUR/USD but it means a long EUR/USD is a short AUD/USD and vice versa. This correlation mismatch will take time to resolve. When AUD runs higher, EUR/USD drops and it leaves AUD at current way way overbought but also out of range V EUR/USD. AUD/USD currently belongs between 0.7343 – 0.7230. While EUR/USD is now okay between 1.0992 – 1.0954 and then 1.0916. AUD shorts will be a slow grind where 0.7100’s are locked tight.

AUD/USD Big breaks are found at 0.7237, 0.7230 and 0.7158. Bottoms. 0.7479 and 0.7442.Range breaks 0.7380, 0.7357 and 0.7581 above. Targets above 0.7547 and fail point at 0.7516. To go higher, AUD/USD must break 0.7483, 0.7496 and 0.7510. Daily pip ranges are 20 pips. To understand target at 0.7547 and 0.7516, Sell point extreme above is found at 0.7543. This is the sell area. Long point below 0.7321. Then EUR/USD sell point 1.1065 and long 1.0903. Big points EUR/USD 1.0983 and 1.0910. I see EUR/USD cannot hold present ranges despite its current comfort position. I see a massive drop ahead. Any AUD price rises are result of EUR Correlations. AUD longs are scary, better sell the rallies.

AUD/CAD Big vital points 0.9874, 0.9809 and 1.0016

Brian Twomey, Inside the Currency Market, btwomey.com