AUD/USD last week correlated minus 30% to EUR/USD. This week won’t see big difference. Correlation at 30% means long EUR/USD is short AUD/USD and vice versa. It also means AUD/USD won’t travel far from EUR/USD as the pip differential is about 30 – 40 pips. The same for NZD/USD. Eventually, correlations will change to positive. Possible causes to negative correlations is mis positions between AUD/USD and EUR/USD but a cross rate or two may also be the cause. AUD/NZD could very well be the candidate. The absolute must be analyzed further. Currently my systems are down for the day. I cannot know exactly where the problem lies until I’m fully running. For now, hand calculations.
AUD/USD. Big break point 0.7185. Pip range today 30 pips long term, 23 pips short term and lower point of the differential. Ranges 0.7621, 0.7738 V 0.7469 and 0.7356. Targets 0.7593 failure point and 0.7632. To go higher, breaks 0.7553, 0.7592 and 0.7595. Tough area at 0.7590’s and must breaks to go higher. Look for sells in this area today. To target 0.7469, breaks must occur at 0.7547, 0.7545, 0.7544.
Brian Twomey, Inside the Currency Market, btwomey.com