AUD drivers are the OIS curves due to an agreement signed between the RBA and and BOJ March 18. Its a rare day post 2008 crisis to see OIS curves as main price drivers. What this means shortest term is big supports are found in AUD as parts of the overall curve becomes out of sync. Today’s curve is no different as out of sync now begins until the BOJ are done. Most important AUD event is today’s speeches by Big Glenn Stevens and Malcolm Eddy at the yearly Financial Markets meeting. Debelle was scheduled to speak but his name isn’t listed as speaker. We want to know specifically what changes are ahead for the AUD system and how those changes will be implemented. Also, how will the relationship to EUR evolve. Big changes are coming for currency markets. For AUD, its a strict market system as was the case in 200 years of Australian history. Changes will be strictly market oriented as opposed to EUR and the ECB.
AUD/USD Bottoms 0.7612 and 0.7537. AUD shorts must cross 0.7603, 0.7599,0.7578 and 0.7574. Expect a few pips difference as American markets open. Pip ranges today 21 and 17 pips. AUD ranges: 0.7625, 0.7624. Further above 0.7729, 0.7827. Below 0.7524 and downside target later upon break at 0.7537. Further wider ranges overall 0.7154 and 0.8021. AUD current location is at upper range. AUD targets today 0.7616, 0.7623, AUD is out of bounds at 0.7648. AUD downside is tough against current supports but topside is way overbought so trading AUD today may be quick in and outs but longer term trend is down as target would be 0.7330 next over time.
Brian Twomey, Inside the Currency Market, btwomey.com