EUR/USD: Levels, Ranges, Targets, Methodologies

Central banks offer daily bottoms, today’s EUR/USD bottoms 0.9494, 0.9553, 0.9815, 0.9855, 1.1098. Central banks offer tops, today’s daily tops, 1.3329, 1.3273, 1.2548, 1.2628,1.1441, 1.1383, 1.1167, 1.1153. Why offer bottoms and tops, protect bottom from possible market implosion but allows big corporate and big money investors to trade a far distant exchange rate for 2 – 20 years. Its common everyday.

As traders today, we care about 1.1441, 1.1383, 1.1167, 1.1153. Then bottom 1.1098. Today’s target 1.1274 and failure point 1.1209. Failure point is new overall and added as protection against today’s and any day’s target. The overall target may not achieve and fail at 1.1209. Targets achieved or not screams big messages to next price target. Normal days, I would say longs to target 1.1274, exit for profit then reverse short to target 1.1213, exit shorts for profit. Longs fail at 1.1209, I say exit at 1.1209, profit then reverse short to 1.1181. Exit for profit. Unless 1.1181 breaks then target becomes 1.1167. Then 1.1167 becomes next long or short point. Targets become 1.1181 or 1.1153. So small, we may not want to touch this because price may go dead.

Structure. Target warning is found at 1.1167, then ranges. Above 1.1204 and 1.1205 then below 1.1102. Further, we know 1.1441 and 1.1383 are descending lines. We know 1.1167 is big break. Price today stopped at 1.1170. Where is 1.1170, don’t know without investigation. Normally its a mid point somewhere among the bigger points. If 1.1170 is not found then it says 1.1167 was an official break and EUR/USD price is going higher. It only takes 1 pip to declare a violation to know next price direction. Further, a top is in place and its very strong. Target warnings, range breaks 1.1204, top in place, 1.1167 big break, descending 1.1383.

Pip range. Today, 96 pips long term, 22 pips short term. If ever a screaming warning existed, its here because it says overall range problems exist in today’s overall curve. Its the 96 that’s scary while 22 is light but its also normal. Best EUR/USD offers on range pips is roughly 50 – 60 pips. Range problems will stop a price progression quickly. Range problem may very well be the reason 1.1167 violated to 1.1170. Its very possible.

Bottoms. We needed breaks at 1.1153 to target 1.1125 then 1.1098. We don’t ever look for 1.1098 to break. If 1.1098 is achieved, we are long to target 1.1125 then 1.1139. If 1.1125 holds then target still becomes 1.1139. Chances are good, we reverse at 1.1139 to target 1.1125.

Points to achieve targets Above, 1.1156, 1.1168, 1.1181, 1.1195, 1.1209.

I designed this price system. I call it my Statistical Price Path because it allows multiple targets to achieve with known ranges, pip ranges. Protections in my models are always built in every step of the way to protect us. We don’t ever lose, never bail out of a loser. We don’t need stops especially when we hit multiple targets within OH? 1 hour, 30 minutes. Sometimes 2 hours. But we always hit. And we hit perfectly as outlined. 5 AUD trades are on site here somewhere. I hit 5 targets, 5 different pairs within like 1 hour. I did this a few times. Normally we do 2- 3 pairs per day valued with profit values at easily 50 pips per pair, per trade. Most times much more. The problem if any are dead days. targets are identified but price doesn’t move. In those cases, we take our few pips profit, exit and wait for the next day.

Brian Twomey, Inside the Currency Market, btwomey.com

AUD/USD: Levels, Ranges, Targets

The focus on exchange rates as is the orientation for most is not only absolutely wrong but its what leads to the hits or misses routine for a vast majority, including many hedge funds. My words are backed by written facts in my notebooks over a 12 year period. Most don’t know or understand exchange rates prices, movements, purpose and orientation Most can’t know because its not exchange rates that shares the commonality between and among nations. So here’s guys trying to hit moving targets that lack connection or commonality nation to nation in a one size fits all approach. AUD is not NZD and EUR is not AUD or NZD. Three separate nations can’t match against 3 separate national orientations. My long time and ongoing work on interest rates and curves is astounding and groundbreaking. As new research information is learned, we upgrade our curves and orientation to maintain perfect accuracy. So groundbreaking and more accurate is our approach, I have yet to see my work in print by big banks and I receive tons of interest rate research.
My work and latest upgrades allows us to not only hit targets, but we know tops, bottoms ranges, pip movements and points in between. This isn’t new, what’s new is easier ways to calculate so we gain speed in our trades. We are able to follow and know a complete price outline so to hit multiple targets within a price path. Our focus is price but we maintain a price view by understanding the overall structure. Structure allows ability to hit multiple currency pair targets as was done here many times. Structure is most important because we gain the same advantage as the market whereas most one size fits all guys lose as the market price beats these guys by 20 – 30 pips. And they aren’t aware they were beat.
Think about trading as a musical instrument. To play accurately is to know the proper notes and chords then melodies are derived from notes and chords All together, means perfect songs are played. Enough.

AUD/USD. Bottom. 0.7511. Ranges above 0.7536, 0.7587, below 0.7486, 0.7436. Target above 0.7549, tough area here and assumes range break 0.7536. Use 0.7536 as failure point to get short to target bottoms at 0.7511. Correlation with EUR/USD is positive 13%, its low but improving from negative. AUD becomes out of bounds at 0.7549 but has ability to spike to 0.7562. We’re pretty much in a 0.7511 – 0.7562 range. Pip range today 21 pips long term, 17 short term. Big points above 0.7535 and 0.7540. EUR is heading lower over time as is the situation for AUD. Below 0.7511, we want to hit 0.7486 target next.

Brian Twomey, Inside the Currency Market, btwomey.com