The focus on exchange rates as is the orientation for most is not only absolutely wrong but its what leads to the hits or misses routine for a vast majority, including many hedge funds. My words are backed by written facts in my notebooks over a 12 year period. Most don’t know or understand exchange rates prices, movements, purpose and orientation Most can’t know because its not exchange rates that shares the commonality between and among nations. So here’s guys trying to hit moving targets that lack connection or commonality nation to nation in a one size fits all approach. AUD is not NZD and EUR is not AUD or NZD. Three separate nations can’t match against 3 separate national orientations. My long time and ongoing work on interest rates and curves is astounding and groundbreaking. As new research information is learned, we upgrade our curves and orientation to maintain perfect accuracy. So groundbreaking and more accurate is our approach, I have yet to see my work in print by big banks and I receive tons of interest rate research.
My work and latest upgrades allows us to not only hit targets, but we know tops, bottoms ranges, pip movements and points in between. This isn’t new, what’s new is easier ways to calculate so we gain speed in our trades. We are able to follow and know a complete price outline so to hit multiple targets within a price path. Our focus is price but we maintain a price view by understanding the overall structure. Structure allows ability to hit multiple currency pair targets as was done here many times. Structure is most important because we gain the same advantage as the market whereas most one size fits all guys lose as the market price beats these guys by 20 – 30 pips. And they aren’t aware they were beat.
Think about trading as a musical instrument. To play accurately is to know the proper notes and chords then melodies are derived from notes and chords All together, means perfect songs are played. Enough.
AUD/USD. Bottom. 0.7511. Ranges above 0.7536, 0.7587, below 0.7486, 0.7436. Target above 0.7549, tough area here and assumes range break 0.7536. Use 0.7536 as failure point to get short to target bottoms at 0.7511. Correlation with EUR/USD is positive 13%, its low but improving from negative. AUD becomes out of bounds at 0.7549 but has ability to spike to 0.7562. We’re pretty much in a 0.7511 – 0.7562 range. Pip range today 21 pips long term, 17 short term. Big points above 0.7535 and 0.7540. EUR is heading lower over time as is the situation for AUD. Below 0.7511, we want to hit 0.7486 target next.
Brian Twomey, Inside the Currency Market, btwomey.com