A Statistical Price Path is defined as a price path with a defined direction and cannot leave the path until the end result is complete. End result is usually a target price. A target price must complete in order to travel to the next Statistical price path. EUR/USD rises against severe tops is an example of a statistical price path. EUR/USD constant rises against previous 1.0800’s is another example. Draghi or Big Sis Yellen can’t stop a statistical price path. A news event can’t stop a statistical price path. News events or central banks may knock a price off its intended path but its meaningless because the price path must complete its original destiny. Central bankers belief in their own power is unfounded cause zero power exists. Listening to these central bankers is like following a deceptive false god. Post 2008 was the focus on central banks and its when they believed they were important yet they lack old fashioned humility. Front and center with all the cameras as if they are beautiful models posing for the swim suit issue. Between the narcissism of central bankers and false gods of cameras leading traders astray, its a recipe for disaster because the narcissists feel they must deliver and they are always wrong. Anyone can trade a statistical price path and never listen to one word of a central banker or news event. Life begins in either a logarithm or a Standard deviation. This is where the building process begins. Building is the operative word because false foundation can occur. Only few math formulas work against a currency price. Two indicators work. McGinley Dynamic and Bill Williams Alligator. McGinley is by far the best as we tested both for months on end.
EUR/USD. Bottom. 1.1262, 5 pip drop from overnight. Larger range 1.1262 – 1.1441. Ranges above 1.1441 and 1.1578. Below 1.1335, 1.1300, 1.1205, 1.1196. Target 1.1441, coincides with range 1.1441, watch this if seen. Failure sell point 1.1373 and 1.1381. Level break 1.1441 opens flood gates to 1.1526, 1.1661, 1.1781. Target achieved at 1.1441, sell to target 1.1379. Target 1.1373, sell to target 1.1345. Past days, we saw full target misses, means sell the failure areas. Points on the way up, 1.1321, 1.1324, 1.1332, 1.1347, 1.1360, 1.1373, 1.1390, 1.1407, 1.1441.
Shorts must break 1.1317, target 1.1289 then bottom 1.1262. Watch for reverse at 1.1289 to then target 1.1321. Remain short on break 1.1289 to target 1.1262. Then reverse to 1.1289 and higher if 1.1289 breaks.
Brian Twomey, Inside the Currency Market, btwomey.com