EUR/USD: Levels, Ranges, Targets

EUR/USD. Bottoms. 1.1000 and 1.0972. Big vitals points 1.0980 and 1.0903. Extreme sell points 1.1095, 1.1098 and 1.1228 V longs 1.0828, 1.0753 and 1.0748. Ranges today remain 54 pips V 14 pips short term. Ranges 1.1204 above V 1.0854 and 1.0746. Targets today 1.1052 and Failure point 1.1046. For today, 1.1041 must cross. A big line at 1.1110 is falling on current price. Points above 1.1031, 1.1038, 1.1042, 1.1046, 1.1049, 1.1052. A target at 1.1052 then short to 1.1040 then 1.1031 break to target 1.1014 then bottoms at 1.1000. Again, longs are to scary as this point.

Brian Twomey, Inside the Currency Market, btwomey.com

EUR/USD: Levels, Ranges, Targets

RBNZ meets this week. The smartest and far ahead of the curve central bank in this world has nothing to worry about. OCR in New Zealand is nearly perfect both long and short term. New Zealand markets currently signals no change. The best part regards New Zealand is no matter what happens in this world, the RBNZ is well prepared. The slight dis junction in New Zealand is the same dilemma as Australia in Exports and Imports. In the statement its stated as Trade Ables and Non Trade Ables. What allows Trade Able V Non view interesting is what is seen in production in New Zealand. That’s why the intent focus for the RBNZ and RBA and constant mention in the statements. If Exports are down, naturally production is down. This seems very basic but its profound in the RBA and RBNZ in the manner they view the Import, Export and Production relationships. Seems I write this point every time I speak about the RBA and RBNZ. But as always readers, I and all are always far far ahead of the curve. Sad is the analysts as usual are fast asleep and pretty much comatose on all issues markets.

EUR/USD. Bottoms. 1.0991, 1.0963. Big vital points 1.0979 and 1.0902. Extreme short prices are found at 1.1113 and 1.1122, below longs 1.0749 and 1.0747. Today’s range 54 pips, 14 pips short term. EUR/USD price pressure continues to build. Current price cannot remain in present locations. We are ready for a giant pop. I see it dropping hard and fast. The top remains in place. Caution again longs. Don’t marry longs. Ranges today, 1.1194 above and 1.0847 and 1.0737 below. Targets today 1.1027 and 1.1020 failure point. Give yourself about a 10 pip difference in targets and bottoms as American markets open. Daily pip ranges are fixed. Shorts is the way. I will post EUR/USD again later.

Brian Twomey, Inside the Currency Market, btwomey.com

AUD/USD: Levels, Ranges, Targets

Think about this concept. Since 2007, currency prices in the 10 major nations lost exactly 10,860 pips. I’m working on a project for a later publication so expect to see more Interest rate articles for interested.

AUD/USD. Correlations V EUR/USD last week -0.10, now -0.43. A lower EUR/USD is a higher AUD/USD. Ranges in AUD/USD Vs EUR/USD today 0.7236 – 0.7126. EUR/USD ranges V AUD/USD today 1.0934 – 1.0932. Big break points in AUD/USD 0.7183 and 0.7146. For the week, we should see 0.7183 as big vital break points. EUR/USD Big break points 1.0974 and 1.0898.
EUR/USD sell points above 1.1077 and 1.1047 Vs longs 1.0771 and 1.0753. AUD/USD sell point extremes 0.7565, 0.7481, 0.7430. Currently AUD/USD is out of bounds above 0.7235. Longs 0.6941 and 0.6983. AUD/USD is currently way way overbought yet again this week. Any rises, sees more overbought. I would not consider long, its far to dangerous at these levels.

AUD/USD Bottom. 0.7413. A Break targets 0.7376. Ranges 0.7315, 0.7292, 0.7198 and 0.7500’s above. Targets above today 0.7483 and failure point 0.7466. Massive supports between 0.7415 – 0.7413.

Brian Twomey, Inside the Currency Market, btwomey.com

UK Sonia Interest Rate: Levels, Ranges, Targets

Sonia’s February range was 0.4728 – 0.4545, a 183 bps range and slightly below the 203 bps range from 0.4720 – 0.4517 in January. Current price at 0.4660 is below last month reported 0.4668 and 0.4660 was February’s opening monthly price. The opening price for March was 0.4672.
Sonia’s current range is found between lows at 0.4328, 0.4322 and highs between 0.4665 and 0.4860. Sonia is on the verge of a break at 0.4665 to enter a new interval between 0.4665 0 0.4860. The larger range is found between the 3 – 8 year monthly averages from 0.4393 – 0.8869 followed by the 9 year average at 1.4112. To offer context to 0.4860, GBP overnight Libor for the 4 trading days in March traded at 0.4812 and an OIS spread of 152 basis points from current 0.4660. February 29th saw the largest OIS change at 203 basis points. Since February 18, the OIS spread traded between 84 basis point lows to 204 highs. The Current 10 year – 3 month yield spreads trade at 1.026 and 10 – 2 year spreads trade at 1.078.
Sonia at current 0.4660 trades above all monthly averages from 1-7 years. The same averages last month were severely overbought. This month, averages from 1- 4 years remain overbought while the 5, 6 and 7 year averages are oversold. Many supports exists below beginning with the 6 year average at 0.4641, the 7 year at 0.4607 and 1 and 5 year averages at 0.4596 and 0.4576. Below the 5 year average at 0.4579 targets next 2 and 4 year averages at 0.4442 and 0.4422. Any rises in current price means further overbought for averages between short term averages between 1 – 4 years.
What drives Sonia prices are averages 1, 3 and 4 year at 0.4596, 0.4393 and 0.4422. Current averages are overbought, any prices rises leaves those averages susceptible to sell offs. Current targets are located at 0.4634, 0.4624, 0.4608 and 0.4509. Peaks are seen in the 4 and 5 year averages from 0.4422 and 0.4579. The 5 year is a misaligned average and explains current peaks. Sonia for the days ahead is a sell rally interest rate to target next lows first at 0.4641.
Sonia to reiterate from last month is located not only at historic lows but lifetime lows since its 1997 inception. Yet all UK interest rates are located at lifetime lows since the 1971 currency free float.

Brian Twomey, Inside the Currency Market, btwomey.com

EUR/USD: Levels, Ranges, Targets

EUR/USD. Bottoms Now 1.0942 and 1.0914 from previous 1.0926 and 1.0899. Ranges previous 1.0811, now 1.0826 and 1.1045 and 1.1098 previous now 1.1115 and 1.1207. Big Vital points 1.0897 remains but 1.0981, now 1.0975. Extreme buy sell points 1.1014 short and 1.0786. The top remains, caution longs mentioned two post now remains. Big drop scenario mentioned, remains. Today’s drop doesn’t cure EUR/USD price illness. Overbought sells begins at 1.0974.

Brian Twomey, Inside the Currency Market, btwomey.com

EUR/USD: Levels, Ranges, Targets

EUR/USD. Slight changes might be seen at American opening, usually 20 pip differences at most in all points below. Bottoms. 1.0926 and 1.0899. Ranges 1.1098 and 1.1045 above and 1.0811 below. Pip ranges today 53 total, 11 shortest term. Big vital points today 1.0897 and 1.0981. Bottom targets 1.0934, 1.0931, 1.0926 and 1.0899. The point 1.0926 will be the long short point on a possible Non farm Payroll break. Upper targets 1.0958 to 1.0976. Overbought begins at 1.0958. Extreme buy sell points 1.0767 and 1.0755 long and short 1.1043. Vital points for today 1.1032 dropping and 1.0964. Again a top is here so caution longs.

Brian Twomey, Inside the Currency Market, btwomey.com

AUD/USD: Levels, Ranges, Target

AUD/USD. Bottoms. 0.7347 and 0.7328. Ranges 0.7464 and 0.7587 above and 0.7267 below. Upper targets 0.7401 Failure and 0.7415.To achieve targets, 0.7379 and 0.7387 must break. Both are vital to the downside as well. Lower Targets are bottoms at 0.7347 and 0.7328 then the range point at 0.7267. Big vital points are again rising lines at 0.7170 and 0.7143. Daily range pips today are 19 pips overall and 14 pips shortest terms. Again I’m watching the central banks extremely close as monumental changes are coming. The changes will be seen and begin with EUR/USD, remainder pairs will follow. AUD/USD is way way overbought and mentioned yesterday top is here. Caution to longs.

AUD/CAD. Vital break points 0.9852 and 0.9777. Big point above 1.0016. I will post EUR/USD next and look closer to what’s going on in its prices.

Brian Twomey, Inside the Currency Market, btwomey.com

EUR/USD: Levels, Ranges, Targets

EUR/USD Bottoms. 1.0873, 1.0846. Range breaks, 1.0944 and 1.1316 above, 1.0858 below. Vital points, 1.0894 below, 1.0975 above. Shorts need break 1.0894. Targets today, 1.0909. Price surpassed at writing, look for 1.0918, 1.0927 for reverse short.
Shorts must break vital points for today at 1.0907, 1.0904 and 1.0901. Target is again 1.0894 and eventual break. Price hits sell points today 1.0927 above and long at 1.0831. This up move today is very short term as a severe top is here. Funny how we also identified the top in AUD as well. AUD can go a little higher, EUR/USD doesn’t have that ability. EUR is ready for a massive drop. As it may go higher only makes the drop more violent. Total pip range 54 pips, up 4 pips from few days ago. Shortest term pip range 10 pips. Radical changes are coming to currency markets so shortest term ranges reported to monitor what’s ahead and to know the exact point to revert to new strategies. I’m prepared and ready for the switch.
The strategy is short and short any rallies as EUR/USD is heading light years lower over time.

Brian Twomey, Inside the Currency Market, btwomey.com

AUD/USD: Levels, Ranges, Targets

AUD/USD targets easily achieved at 0.7317. Overnight 0.7330. If I posted for the overnight, we could’ve caught the further move to 0.7330 yet no big deal we missed 12 pips when plenty pips to earn are ahead and without ever a loss. For my private guys, they earned much on AUD pairs all week. Maybe next week I’ll pick another pair to trade up and down all week to catch every single pip that trades.

AUD/USD. Bottoms. 0.7318 and 0.7282. Ranges, 0.7368 above, 0.7270 and 0.7221 below. Short term Ranges are tightening and its consistent with the internal dis junction seen in AUD for the first time yesterday. The AUD/USD top is here as mentioned yesterday. We want shorts. Daily ranges today is solid at 19 pips both long and short term. Big points below from rising lines 0.7164 and 0.7140. EUR/USD lines 1.0894 and 1.0985. Why EUR, Correlations are now minus 0.15 and moving further away from positive V EUR/USD. The EUR/USD range Vs AUD/USD is found at 1.0954 average and 1.1019 above, 1.0889 below. AUD/USD average 0.7166, 0.7217 above and 0.7115 below. AUD/USD is in range but the top is here.
AUD/USD targes above 0.7352 failure point and 0.7381, watch 0.7368 range point in this assessment. Below 0.7317 targets 0.7282, watch range point 0.7270. Overall ranges 0.7368 – 0.7270. AUD to head higher watch 0.7321, 0.7334 and 0.7346. Shorts preferred today then we assess later today again.

AUD/CAD Big break points today, 0.9848 and 0.9777.

Brian Twomey, Inside the Currency Market, btwomey.com

AUD/USD: Levels, Ranges, Targets

New Bottoms. 0.7244 and 0.7226. Big vital points below rising lines 0.7161 and 0.7139. Target 0.7268 achieved, violate 2 pips to 0.7270 then reversed to 0.7257, I stated reverse to 0.7251. EUR/USD is driving AUD/USD as Correlations are negative 0.01. AUD/USD stops going higher when EUR/USD finds bottoms.

AUD/USD upper targets 0.7293 failure and target 0.7317. Ranges 0.7384 above and 0.7143 and 0.7117. AUD ranges are wide but again daily ranges are 17 pips and shortest terms 13 pips. AUD/USD is overbought while EUR/USD is oversold. EUR/USD Vital point remains 1.0891. A top in AUD/USD is here but EUR/USD must correct higher to see significant downside in AUD/USD due to present correlations. Big point breaks in AUD/USD to target 0.7293 and 0.7317 is found at 0.7265, 0.7274 and 0.7277. Due to overbought, I would rather sell than chase current targets. Sell points upon upside targets met then target below bottoms first at 0.7244 with a must break at 0.7265.

Brian Twomey, Inside the Currency Market, btwomey.com

AUD/USD: Levels, Ranges, Targets

The RBA speaks to Commodity prices and AUD not in line with Commodities. The RBA’s Index of Commodity Prices declined minus 4.9% in December, minus 3.1% November. Oil, Iron Ore and Base Metals are biggest contributors to the decline. In Australian dollars terms, the Index declined 6% in December and 17% yearly. What declines mean in RBA views is unknown nor how they view AUD based on the index.

AUD/USD. Bottoms. 0.7217 and 0.7199. Big break points below are located at rising lines at 0.7159 and 0.7138. Range pips today are again found at 17 pips, in the shortest terms range pips are found at 13 pips.Range points are found at 0.7117 below and 0.7356 above. Overall AUD/USD ranges are extremely wide yet daily pip ranges extremely small. AUD internals are getting more and more complicated. A top is here, means upside should be shallow. AUD sell points are found at 0.7297, 0.7291 and 0.7288. Long points 0.7102, 0.7093 and 0.7015. Upside target today 0.7268 and 0.7290. Look for short reversals here.
To move higher, AUD/USD must clear 0.7238, 0.7247 and 0.7250. Only then do we see 0.7268 and 0.7290 targets so look for shorts in this area as well.
AUD/USD is negatively Correlated to EUR/USD by minus 0.01. The level minus 0.01 is not much but its enough to slow AUD/USD declines if EUR/USD continues to drop and its obvious from higher AUD/USD bottoms. For today EUR/USD V AUD/USD sees AUD in ranges from 0.7112 – o.7216. Anything above 0.7216 is out of bounds and must come back to range. What we have is shorts at higher levels inside a 17 pip range. Should AUD break 0.7199, then this becomes the new point to go long as bottoms are located at 0.7180 and 0.7197 with targets at 0.7229 failure point and 0.7262 target.

Brian Twomey, Inside the Currency Market, btwomey.com

AUD/USD: In Depth GDP

Australia GDP at 0.6 is not special and overall a huge concern from an economic perspective. The reading at 0.6 is bottom of the overall range between roughly 0.4 – 1.1. Australia like New Zealand and I believe Japan calculates GDP based on a Paasche chain link index. View a Paasche Index as a lighter form of an Exponential Moving Average where importance in placed on the last number. In Australia’s case, its the last quarter. If Australia didn’t chain link their GDP Index and used a price index then GDP would be in deep negative territory.

The RBA mentioned Terms of Trade 2 days ago in the statement. Terms of Trade is the same principles I mentioned as Trade Ables V Non Trade Ables and its Australia’s greatest economic risk. Terms of Trade in the GDP report was negative 3.2 for the Dec quarter, minus 2.4 for September’s quarter and minus 12.0% for all 2014. Imports V Exports cancelled each other for the quarter as + 0.1 and Negative 0.1. Yet based an a fluke in the calculations, Terms of Trade showed a positive 0.6. The number 0.6 is meaningless and extremely small but overall, Terms of Trade are desperately terrible and its why the RBA wants AUD lower.

Average compensation per employee is minus 0.6. This number is disastrous. Net Disposal Real Income is also Minus 0.3 for the quarter and minus 1.2 for 2014 – 2015. Income Gross is + 0.1. More disaster.

Manufacturing negative 0.2 and Mining was also down, Construction and Engineering was off minus 0.6, Public Gross Fixed Capital Formation was down minus 0.2 overall. Net Savings in Non Financial was minus 5.2 billion, General Government Net Savings was down minus 5.1 billion but Financial corporations was + 6.7 billion. Capital in Australia is concentrated inside its corporations.

Why + 0.6 was based on + 0.4 in Household Consumption in Information: Media and Telecommunications +2.7, Retail +1.0, Arts and Recreation +2.2 and Inventories +0.2. Finance in Australia is a giant contributor to GDP and the biggest gainer while Australia’s Government is busy selling off assets. What drives current GDP in Australia is the same story in all economies, its Services and not manufacturing or Exports. Why Households contribution is also due to the mandated increased down payment for Housing. New Zealand is undergoing the same changes.

Overall Australia is not economically good.

Brian Twomey, Inside the Currency Market, btwomey.com

EUR/USD: Levels, Ranges, Targets

EUR/USD Bottoms 1.0860 and 1.0833, Upper target 1.0901, watch this target point cause vital level at 1.0890 and 1.0891 must break. 1.0890 was yesterday’s 1.0887. Today’s range is 55 pips, down 2 pips from yesterday.

Range breaks below 1.0816 and 1.0779, above 1.0959. Two vital points 1.0890 and 1.1007. 1.1007 was yesterday’s 1.1016 and a dropping line. Overall points above 1.0890, 1.0891, 1.0959 and 1.1007. The strategy is continue to sell any rallies if seen, highly doubtful. Targets are much lower, first to lower 1.0800’s then lower.

Yesterday’s HICP Inflation data was negative 0.2 from previous + 0.3. Deflation hit the Eurozone after 15 months and 4 interest rate cuts. This represents disaster for the ECB as more stimulus or cuts maybe on the way.

Brian Twomey, Inside the Currency Market, btwomey.com