EUR/CHF V USD/CHF V EUR/USD

What exists in EUR/CHF is the severe misalignment between the current signal price V its noise. The current signal is located at exorbitant levels which means EUR/CHF must move from its present range. Here’s the problem, EUR/CHF correlates V EUR/USD at 0.01% and 13% V USD/CHF which means EUR/CHF is a lost wandering pair without a connection to an underlying pair. Correlations not only explains why the signal is so powerful but it also explains the ranges in EUR/CHF are small and tight.Further, correlations in EUR/USD V USD/CHF run minus 98%.

EUR/CHF ranges V USD/CHF are located at bottoms 1.0893 and 1.0916 and top at 1.0939. Current price at 1.0976 is out of range. EUR/CHF ranges V EUR/USD are located at bottoms 1.0897, 1.0920 and top at 1.0943. Current price at 1.0976 is out of range V EUR/USD and USD/CHF.

The only manner to view EUR/CHF is EUR/USD V EUR/CHF. Then out of range boundaries are better known. The bottom range is found at 1.1051, 1.1199 and 1.1347. The most vital points for EUR/CHF are located at 1.0912 and 1.0945. Current EUR/CHF is overbought intraday, oversold long term but not to any great degree. Higher EUR/CHF flys, more overbought intrady price becomes. Part of the oversold explanation is found from lingering effects when the SNB relieved EUR/CHF of the 1.2000 floor. The effects of the SNB’s decision will be felt for many years to come as longer term averages normalize to current price.

The end result for EUR/CHF is it remains a lost pair as no correlations exist and EUR/USD correlates negatively to USD/CHF. This means not only more range bound but again the EUR V USD conundrum is seen. To move current price, EUR and USD must resolve its relationship. A breakout is coming.

USD/CHF ranges are found at bottoms 0.9657, 0.9788 and top at 0.9919. Current USD/CHF price is comfortable within current ranges yet trades in middle bounds. Best strategy for USD/CHF is trade ranges until a breakout occurs in EUR V USD.

Brian Twomey, Inside the Currency Market, btwomey.com

EUR/USD V USD/JPY V EUR/JPY

As a gauge to determine not only the health of currency markets but risk or non risk contexts. The perfect relationship is found in EUR/JPY, USD/JPY and EUR/USD because all are most widely traded dated to Euro introduction for EUR/USD and EUR/JPY and 2008 for USD/JPY.

EUR/USD is negatively correlated to EUR/JPY and USD/JPY by minus 89% and negative 95% which means USD/JPY correlates to EUR/JPY at 98%. Correlations reveal currency markets are correctly functioning yet in risk off mode. The problem with risk off mode is not found in EUR/JPY or USD/JPy but in EUR/USD because EUR/USD is out of range V both EUR/JPY and USD/JPY. Risk off mode is not exactly functioning perfectly. Perfect risk off mode would see EUR/USD and EUR/JPY falling while USD/JPY shoots higher.

EUR/USD V USD/JPY is most oversold and far out of range from 1.1557. EUR/USD V EUR/JPY is out of range from 1.1350. EUR/JPY is comfortably within range V both EUR/USD and USD/JPY from 122.09 – 124.94. USD/JPY is comfortably within ranges V EUR/JPY and EUR/USD yet at the bottom end from 108.47 – 111.04. EUR/JPY is not the problem pair in the mix rather its the struggle between EUR/USD and USD/JPY. EUR/USD should be higher yet USD/JPY is at bottom ranges but both negatively correlate. In the EUR V USD struggle, one side must win.

USD/JPY. Bottoms are found at 108.47 and 109.34 then next comes 109.76, 110.01, 110.67 and top of the range at 111.04. To look further out, 106.29 is the next big break below while 112.70 and 114.76 are the next big point breaks above. USD/JPY is as much oversold as EUR/USD but not to a great degree. Fundamentally, the BOJ wants USD/JPY higher.

EUR/USD is out of range from 1.1350 V EUR/JPY and current price should be located between 1.1350, 1.1415 and top of the range at 1.1480. The big point breaks below are found at 1.1194 and 1.1075. EUR/USD is oversold but again like USD/JPY not oversold to any great degrees.

EUR/JPY. Bottoms are found at 122.09 and 123.64. A cluster area exists at 123.52, 123.64 and 123.76. Then top of the range points exist at 124.25 and 124.94. To look further out, big point breaks are found at 122.34 below and above at 124.27, 126.10 and 126.61. EUR/JPY direction will be found within the resolution of USD/JPY and EUR/USD. If no resolution occurs and we see more range trading between EUR/USD and USD/JPY then EUR/JPY will join the range trade mix. The strategy is sell the tops and buy the bottoms and don’t look for a long term trade until prices normalize.

Brian Twomey, Inside the Currency Market, btwomey.com

EUR/USD: Levels, Ranges, Targets

Bottom and top vital points today. Newest features. Never allow information here to become information overload. Its very simple, the market today and everyday is completely covered by every traded pip. Systems back running this afternoon, more trades and pairs will post.

Top big break points 1.1653, 1.1552, 1.1464, 1.1395, 1.1388, 1.1375. Bottom vital points 1.1347, 1.1294, 1.1281, 1.1225, 1.1209, 1.1196, 1.1142.

EUR/USD Bottom 1.1308. Ranges above 1.1577, 1.1451, 1.1434. Ranges below 1.1294, 1.1277, 1.1154. Target 1.1476, caution again here, Failure point 1.1409. Targets above 1.1409, look for failure at 1.1425, at worse 1.1442. Target met at 1.1476, sell target 1.1420, Target met at 1.1442, sell target 1.1403, target met at 1.1425, sell target 1.1395, Target met at 1.1409, sell target 1.1387. Points on the way up, 1.1386, 1.1397, 1.1409, 1.1425, 1.1442, 1.1459, 1.1476.

Shorts below 1.1363, Target 1.1335, 1.1321, 1.1308 Bottom. Points on the way down, 1.1362, 1.1358, 1.1352, 1.1347, 1.1341, 1.1330, 1.1324, 1.1316, 1.1308 Bottom. Point 1.1335 must cross to head long again. Target 1.1344.

Brian Twomey, Inside the Currency Market, btwomey.com