USD/JPY: Levels, Ranges, Targets

The best information to transmit in regards to USD/JPY is its massively oversold, short, long, intraday, historic and any other terms to view. But like CAD and other USD pairs, the upside contains hurdles.

Two points hold USD/JPY from upper targets at 113.72, those points are 111.39 and 111.51.

The bottom is contained at 109.25 and 108.76. Most vital is 108.76 because then the bottom drops to major base of supports beginning at 106.30, 105.85, 105.66, 104.47 and 103.02. Supports travel incrementally to 99.00’s.

May 1st, USD/JPY hit its bottoms at lower 105’s and skyrocketed 500 + pips to current 110’s. Buy dips looks like the way for USD/JPY.

Brian Twomey, Inside the Currency Market, btwomey.com

USD/CAD: Levels, Ranges, Targets

The BOC and Poloz goal is to see the FED raise and perform the lower CAD job for the BOC. That means USD/CAD higher. Current 2 and 3 year yield spreads are running 0.31 and 0.41. The 2 year is up 3 bps from 0.28 bps in overnight trade. Intraday, USD/CAD is oversold but oversold contains hurdles.

Viewed from longer term averages dating to 1998 to 2000, USD/CAD is vastly oversold. Viewed from averages from 2003 – 2007, USD/CAD has overbought problems and derived from the 2003 to 2006 boom in the last economic cycle. Overbought means USD/CAD begins to enter extrmes at 1.4100’s to 1.4200’s and 1.4400’s. Its not uncommon for a wide ranging pair such as CAD to violate those extremes as we’ve seen many times since 2008. But 1.4100’s begins warning to view shorts rather than build on longs. What’s driving USD/CAD is oversold from 2008 to current intraday period because USD/CAD built an enormous base of multiple supports from 1.1685 to 1.2289.

To travel higher, USD/CAD must break 1.3132 and 1.3192. Below rough supports begin at 1.3022 and 1.2966. Most important line is 1.2966 because then the 50 day average must view at 1.2859. Below 1.2966 and 1.2859 lies nothing until 1.2200’s, specifically 1.2289 and 1.2209. Look for Bottoms and a reload of longs at 1.2966 to 1.3022. Plenty of room to run for USD/CAD upsides with targets beginning at 1.3300’s if hurdles break at 1.3132 and 1.3192.

Brian Twomey, Inside the Currency Market, btwomey.com

EUR/USD: Levels, Ranges, Targets

Last evening AUD/USD Dead stopped 0.7218, 2 pips shy of reported second target at 0.7220, 8 pips above first target 0.7210 and broke 0.7203 range. At post time, AUD/USD was already not only at 0.7150 Bottom but 0.7140 was next range break. What happened with AUD at 0.7203 was range moved. Most important, Australia’s goods exported at a correct price.

CAD and BOC this morning, we’ll look at CAD further. Maybe USD/JPY as well. USD/JPY was completely covered May 1 as a monthly trade when long from 105 resulted in a + 600 pip trade for the month.

EUR/USD. While the focus in other EM and Asia pairs highlighted the disjunctions between EUR and USD, sometimes this binary view is not necessarily the full explanations nor cause of problems. EUR/USD within its own pricing curves has severe problems in its continuity. Short term, EUR/USD desperately wants to fly higher but lacks ability as other portions of the curve stop any price rises. As I look back over many days, this struggle has been a constant.

EUR/USD. What held yesterday morning and overnight was 1.1150 Bottom V the next range point at 1.1134.

Today’s vital points above, 1.1301, 1.1272, 1.1224, 1.1188, 1.1166, Then rough between 1.1150 to 1.1153.

Below Vitals 1.1058, 1.1045, 1.1019, then 1.0977, 1.0960,1.0935. Why vitals because ranges are wide from 1.1334, 1.1511, 1.1547 above to 1.0900’s below.

Bottom today 1.1090. Upper targets 1.1218, 1.1165, watch closely for reverse at 1.1191 as this point converges against 1.1188.

Where’s longs, at bottoms. The import of today’s bottoms is 1.1090 breaks, next comes 1.1058 and a long way down. Normal market conditions, they don’t allow prices to fly in wide variations so look at 1.1090 as vital today.

Brian Twomey, Inside the Currency Market, btwomey.com