AUD/USD: Weekly Levels, Ranges, Targets

AUD/USD: Weekly

AUD/USD problem is price location is in no man’s land and caught between two break points below at 0.7474 and rising 0.7422. The two big averages places AUD/USD between 0.7588 and 0.7568 above to 0.7397 and 0.7361 below. To trend higher, AUD/USD must break 0.7568 and 0.7588 while trends lower means price must trade below 0.7397 and 0.7361. From current close at 0.7561 and a 38 pip daily range, AUD/USD is in meandering stages without direction.

In a larger context, to see AUD/USD on a serious uptrend then 0.7808 must trade higher.

What drives AUD is not the support at 0.7474 but the line at 0.7422. If 0.7422 continues to rise, AUD rises. The top of the distribution channel from 0.7422 is currently located at 0.7614, 0.7629 and 0.7646. Sell points in extremes are found from 0.7604, 0.7608, 0.7618, 0.7625. Sell to 0.7588 and 0.7568 supports and 0.7531 on breaks below. Currently, AUD/USD is overbought but not to any extreme worries yet but shorter term averages from 5 to 253 days are not only dropping but explains why AUD/USD leans to overbought.

To move higher, 0.7531 must hold then next comes 0.7567, 0.7568 and 0.7588. An uptrend then begins with next important levels located at 0.7590, 0.7595, 0.7604, 0.7614, 0.7621, 0.7631, 0.7641, 0.7649, 0.7669, 0.7689, 0.7702, 0.7716. The top of the channel overall is 200 pips higher and located at 0.7751. At 200 pips and 38 daily pips assumes AUD/USD hits 0.7716 in 5.26 days without corrections. AUD prices will remain in slow grind mode.

AUD/USD extreme prices and long points are located at 0.7416, 0.7331 and 0.7324. At current 0.7561, AUD/USD is dead center of top channel at 0.7751 and extremes below at 0.7331.

Inside the larger downtrend, AUD/USD must break 0.7531, 0.7417 and 0.7413. The point at 0.7413 is derived from 0.7422 as the formal break of 0.7422 is 0.7413. As AUD/USD drops so does 0.7422 and holds supports until 0.7413 breaks below. EUR/USD at big break 1.1148 is experiencing the same phenomenon as 1.1148 rises to 1.1153 upon price approach. The big break of 1.1153 occurrs at 1.1155. Only then does EUR/USD uptrend begin.

For the downtrend, breaks must occur at 0.7397, 0.7379 and 0.7361. A formal downtrend begins with next levels at 0.7384, 0.7366, 0.7372, 0.7360, 0.7354, 0.7348, 0.7345, 0.7344, 0.7327, 0.7317, 0.7307, 0.7303 and 0.7299. The bottom channels are located at 0.7199 and 0.7277. I would look long at 0.7300’s.

The level of 0.7474 sees break at 0.7472, 2 pips so above points changes by 2 pips higher. Assume 0.7472 and 0.7413 breaks lower.

Then levels below begin at 0.7368, 0.7363, 0.7359, 0.7356, 0.7346, 0.7343, 0.7327, 0.7316, 0.7305 and 0.7302. The bottom channels and long points are located at 0.7211 and 0.7081.

Overall, AUD/USD most important level to see a serious uptrend is located at 0.7808. AUD will struggle and overbought in lower to mid 0.7600’s. Levels at 0.7300 is severe oversold. Lower break must be seen at 0.7531, 0.7472, 0.7413 The new downtrend begins at 0.7397 and 0.7361.

Brian Twomey, Inside the Currency Market, btwomey.com

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