USD/CAD: Weekly Levels, Ranges, Targets

In USD/CAD, many significant supports exist below and established inside current price due from USD/CAD’s rise from the 2008 crisis. Most vital supports are located at 1.2913, 1.2313, 1.2294, 1.1921 and 1.1767. Currently, USD/CAD trades comfortably above 5, 10, 14 and 16 year averages. The concern and USD/CAD price drivers for the week are located at 1.2913 and 1.3050 from Friday’s 1.3036 close.

USD/CAD’s further uptrend must break not only 1.3050 which is actual 1.3052 but 1.3172. A new upward trend begins however I would begin to look for shorts from middle 1.3200’s to 1.3300 as USD/CAD becomes far overbought.

The next break points to 1.3052 are located at 1.3045, then upon a break 1.3062, 1.3072, 1.3082, 1.3090 and watch closely 1.3110 and 1.3111 as next big vital levels to continue or reverse the uptrend. At 1.3110, vital break at 1.3052 becomes 1.3055 so 1.3110 may become a correction due because the firm uptrend doesn’t begin until a break is seen at 1.3172. Overall, USD/CAD break at 1.3052 places CAD in no man’s land between 1.3052 and 1.3172. I would consider longs at 1.3052 but caution .

To offer the significance to 1.3110, next above 1.3131, 1.3144, tough break at 1.3158 and 1.3159. Why tough break because then 1.3175, 1.3187, 1.3193 and 1.3206.

On the downside and failure to break 1.3045 and 1.3052 above then next big levels are located at 1.3028 and 1.3027. Both not only huge inflections but USD/CAD becomes lost in no man’s land between 1.2913 and 1.3028. The uptrend must begin again at breaks of 1.3027 and 1.3028 and on to 1.3045 and 1.3052. Next levels from 1.3027 becomes 1.2989 and 1.2970. The significance of 1.2970 is a run to crack 1.2913 by 1.2929 and 1.2924. If 1.2913 trades below then 1.2847 and 1.2821.

1.3028, 1.2929 and 1.2913 holds greatest significance to USD/CAD downside because the new downtrend establishes on a break of 1.2799. Overall, USD/CAD is wandering around its significant averages at 1.2913 and 1.3052 and will remain trading around its averages for weeks in the future as extreme sell prices for the week are found at 1.3134, 1.3150 and 1.3232.

Below long extreme prices are located at 1.2798, 1.2766. In the larger extreme scenario, USD/CAD is done at 1.2614, 1.2555 and 1.2511. Above at 1.3329, USD/CAD is overdone. Extreme prices means if those levels trade, price cannot hold nor remain in the territory and must fall back or rise above those levels.

Brian Twomey, Inside the Currency Market, btwomey.com

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