When EUR/USD was last addressed, most vital break point above was 1.1153. Today’s most important break points are now located at 1.1140 and 1.1141. The EUR/USD dilemma both bottom and topside is multiple supports and resistance points are built into current prices for many weeks. While 1.1140 and 1.1141 are big break points, the upstroke is limited to the next set of resistance levels at 1.1145 and 1.1155. Upon a 1.1155 break then comes the dropping line at today’s 1.1269 and again would render EUR/USD inside a 100 pip range. Add today’s 3 month moving line at 1.1230 then 1.1269 has little chance of a break anytime soon. Overall and shortest terms, the EUR/USD price is dead on the floor but is again fighting its longer term overbought on the price curve.
Further in relation to 1.1140 and 1.1141, the top of the distribution channel is found at today’s 1.1089, yesterday 1.1092 and Monday at 1.1094. The curve is dropping but at 2 and 3 pips per day. A break of 1.1089 leaves EUR/USD in danger zone between its choices to break higher or a deep pullback. But how does 1.1140 achieve its destination from 1.1089. EUR/USD must break 1.1093, 1.1098 and 1.1110. Then the run to 1.1140 is wide open with next points at 1.1145 and 1.1155. To solidly become an uptrend and to see EUR/USD wth any chance to travel higher then 1.1180 must solidly break and hold. Then any gains overall will be limited to 1.1298 from current levels.
On the bottom , today’s base is built solidly at 1.0980 and 1.0983. Today’s bottom is 1.1023 and 1.1021 with next mass of double supports at 1.1002 and 1.1007. The bottom and extreme of the channel is located at 1.0932. Important points become 1.0977 and 1.0960. EUR/USD in the 1.0900’s is dangerously low and little chance for price to hold if seen. At a 2 and 3 pip drop in the curve and against 50 pip daily ranges, price needs a few more days at least to see 1.0900’s. The opportune points on the downside to get long again is found in the lower 1.1007 to 1.1023. But 1.1035 and 1.1037 is rough supports and a must break for EUR/USD to have chance to see lower prices. Overall, EUR/USD is completely range bound stuck and not a favorite pair at the moment.
Brian Twomey, Inside the Currency Market, btwomey.com, Trade Signals? firstname.lastname@example.org