June’s 124.7 billion deficit rose from 113.4 billion in Q4 2015 and a 2.7% increase in current dollar GDP from 2.5% in Q4 2015. The quarterly figures hardly informs the overall view in Balance of Payments. Imported Goods always exceeds exported Goods. Services in exports holds the deficit from a far deeper deficit expansion.
Since 1992 and every year to 2016, Total Imported Goods and Services exceeded exported Goods and Services, despite an exponential rise in world trade. In 1992 and in millions, imported Goods and Services at 656,094 exceeded 616, 882 exported Goods and Services, a deficit of 49,212. In 1993, imported Goods and Services at 713, 174 exceeded exported Goods and Services at 642, 863, a deficit of 70,311. In 1995’s deficit of 96,384 was derived from 890,771 in Goods and Service Imports Vs 794,387 in Goods and Service exports. The Balance of Payment deficit increased every year for 24 years since 1992 to current 2015, the last year for a comprehensive view.
In 2015, a deficit of 500, 362 was derived from 2,761, 525 in Imported Goods and Services Vs 2,261, 163 in Exported Goods and Services. In 1992 began Total Exports at 616, 882 million and ended 2015 at 2,261, 163 yet every year imports exceeded exports. Total Goods and Service Imports began 1992 at 656,094 and rose to 2015 at 2,761,525. Current 2016 runs 1,090, 463 and just under 2015’s halfway point at 1,130,581.
The Total deficit Balance from 1992 began at minus 39,212 to current 2015 at minus 500,361 and increased every year since 1992. The Total balance in Goods began 1992 at minus 96,897 and rose to 2015 at minus 762,565. Current 2016 runs minus 373, 272 and slightly under the mid point at 381,282.
Last time positive Balance of Payments was recorded in Total Goods and Services was 1960 to 1970, 1973 and 1975 as the range was 91 in 1969 and 6022 highs in 1964. Year 1973 was an anomaly as + 1900 was recorded and 12,404 in 1975. Yet the historic negative downtrend in Goods and Service deficits began in 1971 at minus 1, 302 to reach historic deficit highs in 2005 and 2006 at minus 714, 245 and 761, 716.
Year 1975 was the last recorded positive balance and the best ever print since 1960. Year 1996 was minus 104, 065 and exponential deficits was the order of the day to reach current minus 500, 361. Years 1989 to 1996 ranged from minus 31,135 to minus 98,493. The turning point year was 1996 as deficits began to spiral downward.
The question to address is the NAFTA effect when signed into law by Clinton December 8, 1993 and passage November 20, 1993 in the 103rd Congress. The vote was 61 Yay V 38 Nay as 34 Republicans voted Yay and 27 Democrats. Voting nay was 10 Republicans and 28 Democrats
Why positive Balance of Payments in the 1960’s to 1970 was the United States exported more Goods than Services while Imports accounted for a vast majority of Services. But as seen from the small positive balances, the positive to the United States side was small. Deficits began due to less United States exports in goods and more exports in services.
As a Total in all Goods and Services, Balance of Payments Services turned positive 958 in 1971 and increased every year to current 262,203. In 2006, Total Services were 75,573 and skyrocketed to current 262,203. As an export alone, Services were positive 6290 in 1960 and increased every year to current 750,860. As a total in Goods and Services, Goods deficit is minus 762,565 V + 262 in Services. While Export Services alone is + 750, 860, Import Services printed 488,657.
Service imports alone began 1960 at 7,674 and printed 488,657 current. On the Goods alone side, Imports began 1960 at 14,758 to current 2,272, 868 V United States Exports alone at 1,510,303. What accounts for the historic 500 million deficit is total imports to exports in Services and Goods at 2, 761,525 V United States 2,261, 163.
Total Balance in United States Services V Goods Correlate 1 year at 0.01% and minus 54% over a two year period. Yet Imports to Exports alone Correlate 97% and 96%.
Brian Twomey, Inside the Currency Market, btwomey.com